Good morning. For the foreseeable future, Houston’s forecast remains one of very hot weather. The only real watch item of note is rain chances this weekend, particularly on Sunday and into Monday. Unfortunately, the models have trended a bit drier so my expectations of a good, solid soaking are not high. Especially if you live west of Interstate 45.
Wednesday
With high pressure solidly in place, we can expect another day of widespread temperatures of about 100 degrees in the Houston region, with sunny skies and high humidity. This will push the heat index high enough that the National Weather Service has called for a “heat advisory” to cover the area. Winds will not provide much relief, being only light, out of the south at 5 to 10 mph. Nights will continue to be warm and muggy, dropping to only about 80 degrees.
Thursday and Friday
More of the same.
Saturday and Sunday
As high pressure eases to the west, it will open the window to a bit more troughiness, which is to say a disturbance pushing down into the southern United States this weekend may have some influence on our weather. However, the strength of any disturbances or boundaries pushing into the Houston metro area is suspect, and the influence of these is likely to be felt most keenly on the eastern half of our our region.
All of that is to say that we can expect partly to mostly sunny skies this weekend, with highs generally in the upper 90s. There will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day, perhaps peaking at 30 to 40 percent on Sunday. Unfortunately, accumulations look slight. Most of the modeling I’ve looked at suggests there is about a 50 percent chance that most of the area sees on the order of one or two tenths of an inch. So really, only a light and fairly inconsequential dusting of rain. There’s always the chance that things will change as we get closer to the weekend, but right now we’re trending away from meaningful relief from the heat and emerging drought.
Next week
Monday and perhaps Tuesday should be another day of temperatures in the upper 90s with modest rain chances. After that, I’m afraid, high pressure will probably begin to assert its control once again.
Noooo!! God Nooooo!!! I hope all you summer people are enjoying yourselves!!
Eric,
Last couple of days images haven’t been accompanying your daily discussion when I view the discussion from your Space City daily email notification. But if I go to the Space City website, the images are there. I am viewing the email using Yahoo email and Firefox browser. Maybe that combination has a problem showing the images?
Every summer challenges my will to want to live here in the summer. Schools in Texas need to cancel summers off and start Fall break. Who wants to be out in this weather😭
So it is safe to say there will be no rain from the DFW metroplex to the Galveston area at all this weekend?
Eric,
Here’s an update to my email/image problem. I’ve seen this problem before with images not appearing inside certain websites. It’s because I’m using a VPN. If I turn the VPN off, the images appear. The strange thing is I can see the images if I go to the Space City website, but they don’t appear when I view your discussion from the daily email sent discussion (viewed from Yahoo mail).
I. Hate. Summer.
My sentiment every single year. Moved here to be with my husband and you would think after being here 10 years I would be used to it. I swear I have reverse s.a.d. Instead of getting depressed in the winter, I get depressed in the summer.
A friend visiting from Michigan reminds me how freezing cold it is there during the very long winter and his fingers and face ache with the biting chill and people have to dress like the Michillin man whenever they dare to go outdoors. I hate Houston summers but I prefer the winters here to anywhere up north.
Same here – the unending heat makes me feel trapped!
Having been born and raised in Michigan, I am in 100% agreement with reverse SAD syndrome down here. Up there you get depressed due to weeks on end of gloomy weather and no sun, whereas here you get depressed due to unending blazing heat and sunshine, and no single part of the day being decent to go outside. It’s just gross no matter the time of day, even early morning. Our summer is equal and opposite to winter up there. I think snow birds with 2 homes are the smart ones!
As much as I want rain, I don’t want to take pics for a 5k in it. Hopefully it won’t pour Sunday morning.
Is it better to gently water before rain? To ‘open up’ the soils so they can absorb more of a hard rain instead of just running off and flowing over the top.
Although in terms of raw numbers, this summer is not as intense as infamous summers of the past, the “made men” such as 2011, 1998, 1980 , or even 2022. This year is going down as among the top in overall misery. We entered the summer with no drought, but now that’s being squandered.
Summers are now starting to be feared and not to be looked forward to it seems.
Multi-year reader here, following Eric after his SciGuy days. Love and appreciate your work. It has saved me more than once.
Please be sensitive to your readers. Please consider that behind the climate conversation is a clear desire of those in political power to nationally and globally control people’s lives and the means of production. This is not an innocent scientific conversation. It must be handled with immense care and willingness to accept disagreement and suspicion.
Thank you for reading.
The government has been involved in the means of production of goods since the Industrial Revolution. Get real.
You’re right. What your comment dismisses is how government is involved in controlling the means of production, and to what extent. Historically, this is of great concern.
Correct, the 1930s was a period of extreme weather in the US. There were Dust Bowls everywhere, the summer heat waves of 1935 and 1936 were some of the hottest on record. Weather is mostly controlled by the big ball of heat and light in the sky. While there may be some change to climate, the hyperbolic description of the climate “crisis,” “disaster” “emergency” or “catastrophe” is just that–hyperbole being used for economic, political, and social power and control.
Very helpful comment. Thank you.
Scientists love disagreements but they must be based in reality and fact. In fact, I think everyone would love to be proven wrong about climate change as that would be surprisingly great news! The problem is your type of climate deniers don’t discuss the topic with ‘immense care’ and don’t care about the reality of the situation. There will be and have been great costs associated with climate change and understanding how to mitigate disasters and damage and understanding the basic science is vitally important.
Your concerns make sense to me. However, there is significant disagreement about the basic science in this case, i.e. if greenhouse gas science is being applied correctly, and if these gases could usurp an influence as major as the sun’s activity. Also, mitigating disasters can be handled locally and doesn’t have to be tied up in a climate change conversation. This is not denial. This is another perspective looking for reasonable answers.
Chris, that is correct, and no, not denying that there are changes in weather and climate, simply that this is not a “crisis” or “disaster,” as well as many other factors to consider as to why there are so many extreme events, such as floods. One need look no further than Houston, to see that impervious ground has been added by leaps and bounds–one house on a decent yard is not so common in the Heights anymore. Now, you have a concrete driveway and six tall houses on the lot–no where for water to go–so now you have more flooding. Also, more people moving near the coasts, and more people living in wildfire country. Yet, there are less weather related deaths now, mostly due to the ability to predict and warn.
Looks like one heck of a stretch of dog days. By the looks of it, I would speculate it will go well into September.
This may be one occasion that you wish you are wrong, then hate it that you are correct.
I grew up south of Houston never actually living in Houston city limits. When I retired, we moved to flyover country and now enjoy 4 seasons. As I aged, the heat affected me more adversely each year. My only choice was to stay indoors all the time.
Even with 4 seasons, we get a few weeks of heat, but nothing on the scale of Houston. In the mountains we still see the low 60’s some nights all summer long and days it stays in the low to mid 80’s even in August. We get a little snow in the winter, but it’s been a good trade off. Our heat index runs 15 to 20 degrees cooler than Houston most days.
I miss my home there, but my health is better away from that stifling heat. I definitely miss the best TexMex on earth.
This sure seems at least as bad as last July, if not worse. Yes, my house got a good amount of rain with that tropical disturbance earlier this month, but not everyone did. I don’t remember it being above 100 basically every day last year, as it has been this July.
last summer was hotter but slightly less humid. Take a look at www dot weather dot gov/hgx/climate_graphs_IAH for a trip down memory lane. Last year sucked until it rained in August.
why are we going into drought again? Houston is weather is looking like El Paso.
I notice a lot of people complain about the summers here. A lot of these folks originally are not from here, looks like these people didn’t research where they were moving to before coming here. You’re not supposed to do much here in the summers and people can’t seem to understand that logic or type of life or something.
This is not helpful or truthful. I’ve lived here all my life and spent numerous summers outside but finding that much harder now. These recent summers are objectively worse than before and people are welcome to complain away. Look up the number of days in each decade above 90 or 100 and you’ll see that number has gone way up. Even someone in their 30s grew up with significantly cooler summer days.
Dewpoints are what’s making it feel worse. 80 is significantly worse than 75. That’s why morning lows aren’t cooling.
I am in Orange County, and I am keeping up some hope.
Time to move further north.
I’ll start a collection for your moving costs.
Start one for me, too.
If you’re young, you can put up with this current-day blast furnace. If you’re middle-aged like I am, my hit points aren’t regenerating fast enough against the heat.
And, I’m a lifelong Houstonian so don’t tell me I moved here without due diligence.
Hilariously, the Apple weather app on my iPad now shows no rain chances at all the next ten days… lol
One can look up the “1980 United States heat wave” to supply missing context.
What is it with all the Houston-bashing? We have heat, it is uncomfortable, and a good person with any loyalty to their community doesn’t just move away because of bad weather! Besides, it is a wonderful place for vegetable gardening, and furthermore, there are more important things than comfort. Like not living in a state that hates Christians, or pushes inappropriate content on children, etc.