Early look at a Thanksgiving forecast; also guess who was just named Houstonian of the year?

In brief: In the wake of Monday’s front, Houston’s weather will now be sunny and cooler for the rest of the week, before a warmup this weekend. Today’s post assesses just how cool our nights will get. Then, we’ll look ahead to an uncertain forecast for Thanksgiving, nine days from now. Finally, we talk about a nice accolade for the site.

A few notes

Thank you to everyone who voted for Matt and I, as we were formally named “Houstonian of the year” on Monday by Houstonia magazine. We have been doing the no-hype thing for more than nine years now, and it is wonderful to be recognized by the community for our efforts to produce reliable information.

If you’re interested in space, I’ll be giving a talk at North Shepherd Brewing today at 6:30 pm CT, as part of the “Pint-Sized Science” series to broaden science in a fun and public way. There’s no charge. More information can be found here.

Finally, we’re right in the middle of our annual fundraiser for Space City Weather. Thank you, sincerely, to everyone who has contributed so far. We use these funds to keep the website and app going all year long—rain or shine, flood or drought. You can find out how to donate, or purchase merchandise, right here.

Depending on how far you live from the coast, temperatures this morning are 15 to 25 degrees cooler than Monday morning. (Weather Bell)

Tuesday

Most of the region saw at least a smattering of rain, and some parts of Houston picked up 1 inch or more as a cool front pushed into the region on Monday. That should be the end of the rain for at least a week, and we’re unlikely to even see so much as a few clouds until Friday or Saturday. Rather, it’s going to be sunshine and drier air for awhile. High temperatures today are going to push into the upper 70s to about 80 degrees, but with lower dewpoints the air will not feel humid. Lows tonight should drop into the mid-50s. The thing to watch for after midnight will be increasing winds from the northwest, gusting up to 20 to 25 mph. This will represent a surge of colder and drier air that will really bring us into November-like weather.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

These will be mostly sunny days, with high temperatures of about 70 degrees, and rather dry air. Winds will generally be light. Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday nights will all be chilly, likely getting into the upper 40s for much of Houston. Wednesday night should be the coolest night, however, with far inland parts of our region dropping into the upper 30s. Sweater weather, finally?

Saturday and Sunday

Skies will remain partly to mostly sunny this weekend, but we’ll start to see some clouds as a southerly flow returns. Highs on Saturday should reach the mid-70s, with overnight lows around 60 degrees. Sunday will be a bit more humid, with highs of around 80 degrees. If you have outdoor plans for this weekend, you should have zero concerns.

Next week, plus an early look at Thanksgiving

Monday and Tuesday of next week will, almost certainly, be rather warm and muggy. I suspect most of the region will be in the mid-80s. (Record highs for next Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are 86, 86, and 84 degrees, respectively. We will be close to that). Nights will be warm, in the upper 60s. So very un-holiday-like.

However, there’s a pretty strong signal for a front to arrive in the middle of next week. The major operational models bring the front through by Wednesday, but when we dig deeper into the ensembles there’s definitely some risk that the front is delayed to Thursday, which is of course Thanksgiving. There’s likely to be some rain with the front, although right now there’s no evidence of a major line of storms or anything.

A cold front is in the cards for next week, but the ensembles aren’t convinced it will arrive in time for Thanksgiving, which I’ve marked on the meteogram above. (Weather Bell)

So where does that leave us? We’re going to have to give you a probabilistic forecast at this point. By this, I mean the most likely outcome is that the front makes it through on Wednesday, and Thanksgiving ends up with high temperatures in the 60s, and perhaps partly to mostly cloudy skies but no rain. However, there’s a decent chance (one-in-three, maybe?) that the front is slower and doesn’t arrive until Thanksgiving Day. In such a scenario the holiday may be fairly warm and muggy, with a health chance of showers. That sure would be a turkey of a forecast.

34 thoughts on “Early look at a Thanksgiving forecast; also guess who was just named Houstonian of the year?”

  1. Lol, yeah…I see Thanksgiving as being 80, muggy…Meh…
    I’m looking forward to Thanksgiving meal with friends 🙂

  3. Not much excitement out here in Magnolia this morning – rains are gone and no surprise cool drops. We donned long sleeve T’s for the morning walk. No wind, but the coolness was brisk itself (about 48°F here at 6.10am, low to mid 40s in Aggieland).

    In yesterday’s Comments, a number of folks complained about mosquitoes. Obviously weather conditions and nature surroundings influence activity. We’re on acreage with huge pines all over (the horse pastures) this semi-rural area. No mosquitoes, though the coolness keeps them at bay. But overall, throughout the year, we don’t have much mosquito activity (fingers crossed).

  4. Congratulations on your accolades. Well deserved. No-hype is what keeps me tuned in. Keep up the great work!

  5. This is becoming comical. High 80s next week at the end of November. This hot air just won’t go away.

    At this point I’m anticipating an 80 degree Christmas

  6. Congrats to you guys..havent missed a weather report since the start..
    ❄️🧣🧤🎿🪁👙🐾🌴🍃🌞🌦️☂️🌩️☃️

  7. Of course its going to be warm next week. Why wouldnt it be. I guess i’ll just fry the turkey outside, too warm for the oven inside. SMH

  8. As a follower of Eric since the Chron/Sci Guys days, these accolades are long over due, imo.

    Glad you are getting recognized for the tremendous value you give freely to Houston ..and beyond.

    Well done.
    And thank you.

  11. Congrats on the well deserved accolade! I’m happy Methodist Hospital has brought back the Galleria / Uptown Turkey Trot…a 50° start would be great, but it is what it is. We’re running the 10K regardless.

  12. Congratulations! Eric and Matt. Well deserved. Checking and reading your post/blog on weather is one of first things I do every morning. Very informative and insightful.

  13. Congrats on winning! I was so excited to read that yesterday on my email! You guys definitely deserve it!

  15. Congrats on the well deserved accolades! And boo on the returning humidity! Over it! lol 🎃 🦃 🍁

  17. What happened to highs in the 60s? Can’t we just have at least one day in the 60s? Is that possible anymore? I don’t think we’ve ever had a November without at least one day with highs in the 60s before. And no, I don’t remotely believe that we are going to see a cold front on or after Thanksgiving.

    • I suppose he meant to write: “For Matt and me”, although:” for me and Matt” would have been okay, but perhaps: “for Matt and myself” would have scored an A+.

  20. Congrats guys! Well deserved.

    Once you stop basking in the glory, can you start work on that white Christmas? It will get you re-nominated.

  24. Congratulations on your well deserved accolade as Houstonian(s) of the year. And much gratitude for your excellent weather guidance and enlightenment.

  25. I’d voted you guys MY Houstonians if the year a long time ago. You never panic me about the weather.

Comments are closed.