Good morning. Since the forecast is pretty much unchanged—expect very hot and sunny weather for the foreseeable future—I want to briefly address a question I’ve received several times. And that is, why does Apple’s weather app consistently show a 30 to 50 percent chance of rain for the next several days?
Now if we’re to believe this forecast, there is a 30 percent chance of rain today, and a healthy 50 percent chance on Friday. And since Apple makes some pretty amazing hardware and software, it’s difficult to doubt Apple. But in this case, the Apple weather app is just massively wrong. The rain chances today are not 30 percent, but rather about 3 percent (as the Space City Weather app, which is not flawless I will say, suggests). And while I would dearly love to be wrong, a 50 percent chance of rain on Friday is preposterous.
This has been a persistent forecast within Apple’s weather app for awhile now. I honestly don’t know why this is occurring because there is no credible modeling suggesting this will happen, and it entirely defies everything I know about meteorology given the current pattern. My only thought is that while AI and automated forecasts are promising, they still require some human curation. Which we endeavor to provide.
Thursday
Meanwhile, back in the real world, we’ve got another excessive heat warning today, with high temperatures of about 100 degrees and a heat index pushing past 110 degrees. The only notable change is that winds out of the south will be a little bit more pronounced, up to about 20 mph. Lows tonight will drop to around 80 degrees.
Friday
Slightly drier air could push us out of “excessive” heat territory into a simpler heat advisory, but it’s still going to be dang hot. Rain chances are in the sub-5 percent category.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend will be sunny and hot, with rain chances near zero percent.
Next week
Honestly, there’s not a whole lot of change in sight for next week as a ridge of high pressure remains dominant over our weather. Maybe, if I squint, there’s a bit of optimism for returning rain chances by the end of next week. But it’s not a bet I’m placing with confidence.
dOn’T yOu DaRe SpEaK bAdLy Of ApPlE!!
I deleted the iPhone weather app a few weeks ago because of this. Started using the Weather Channel app which seems more accurate but is slow to load and I’m not crazy about the format.
I have Weatherbug and Windy and both are usually very reliable to what SCW says. Both give many extras like UV, pollution, pollen, sunrise/set, tradfic cams, lightning map, hurricane map, but Windy gives detailed winds patterns and other info. Windy just made their 10 day forecast where you have to pay to see it.
On Weatherbug you can arrange the info tiles to whatever is most important to you. So I have pollen and precipitation nearer the top. These I use on and Android phone, not sure how they are on Apple.
Love the SCW app but I went back to AccuWeather because I couldn’t find the UV index which is critical for Houston. It would also be great if you were able to add air quality, which is another key local metric to watch.
My husband and I left the Fruit (you know, as in Apple) infrastructure YEARS ago. As I look at the 10 day forecast on W-ground, there’s nothing significant in terms of rain – pretty much non-existent.
Eric / Matt – Based on how we seem to be having more of these ridges happening annually, and each summer seems to push the boundaries of “painfully hot”, is it safe to say this is our “new normal”? I know there is a lot of talk about climate change, and while I’ve read the science behind it (more extremes, higher water vapor and temperatures), I know there are those here that either don’t understand the science or refuse to read it. For those individuals, should we just start telling them to get used to this, and come to understand that temps in the low 100s and heat indices pushing 110 are going to become “normal”?
It’s funny how concerned some people are with what others read or not. One day I’ll find someone that claims to have “read the science” and actually means all the science not just those pieces cherry-picked for their narrative……one day.
Looks like Apple is fighting back…now says 50% chance TODAY through next Tuesday! The AI overlords are stepping up the disinformation campaign in response to SCW’s rebellion.
I was just discussing this very thing with my husband last night! The Apple weather app is okay, but these rain chances are so wildly divergent from yours, I noticed big time. I put it down to your commitment to provide us weather without drama. (Well, the weather may be dramatic, but the way you present it is not!) Thank you!
Yes. The Apple Weather rain forecasts went wack around the time of their weather data “outages.” They are consistently…optimistic. I’ve submitted a bug report to Apple, but (not shockingly) I haven’t seen any feedback. I’ve moved on to other weather apps as well. Sigh — from an excellent Dark Sky to this…Apple has fumbled this one…
This is a problem nationally with Apple’s Weather app, not just in Houston. Precipitation is often way off. You’ll see posts online suggesting to make sure Location Services are set to Always on and Precise Location in the Weather app’s settings, but that really doesn’t seem to be the issue here. It’s correct for me and I still see this bad info.
It would be nice to have a Space City Weather iOS widget!
..,well…I’ve decided that the wind picking up a bit has raised my spirit a little bit…I’ll take it!
Accuweather app is just as bad, but they have added a heat index for Real Feel in the Sun.
I have 2 Rachio “smart” sprinkler controllers that are supposed to “know” the local weather and not sprinkle when it’s not needed. Both have been applying weather skips and ground saturation holds on a daily basis. I had been wondering were they goth their data from but probably from Apple.
Mine has been doing the same thing. And I set it to get it’s data from one of the local weather monitoring stations, so it should be accurate…
This is not limited to the local area. My son looked at apple weather last night for the US soccer game in San Diego and it called for rain. No, I told him; stop using apple weather. It does not rain in southern California in the summer.
Or Northern, I told my wife the first time we went back to visit my family. Then, in July in SF East Bay, it began to rain…
Curiously, in the Apple Weather app, if you click on “Today” under the 10-Day forecast and then select precipitation, there’s a message that reads, “Today’s total precipitation will be 0″. The next rain expected is less than 0.05″ Mon.” (at least that’s what my phone says at the moment).
oh yes, AI is very promising… Terrible, yes, but great.
Hey guys you are the BEST! I moved to northeast Texas 2 1/2 years ago and I still follow you because you guys are accurate. Where I live I don’t seem to have any true coverage and am left with other weather apps. It closest metroplex is Dallas, which is about 80+ miles to my west. The television stations cover Ft Worth and it’s surrounding counties as well as the Dallas area so when they give the forecast of the large area they are standing over where I live so I can only guess at what may come my way.
My questions are is a chance that you all will expand your coverage area? (Please,please,please) If not what app would you suggest? I live north of I-20 between Tyler and Canton.
“Apple makes some pretty amazing hardware and software”. Like i-phones? Pretty amazing at not only addicting the entire world population and destroying the development of children, but doing so with the banner of original sin (the apple of temptation and pride) unchallenged. Seriously, they make it as obvious as possible that they are in the business of helping people give in to temptation and break the limits that God set to guide them to their fulfillment, and no one blinks an eye. And of course these tech giants do this simply as a way to get people in their control (exactly as the devil uses the temptation of pride, independence and freedom from God to make people his slaves). And AI will increase everything a hundredfold.
Uhh… Ok
There are those in the world who try to make life better for all at no cost, and then there are the tech companies who intend to make their stockholders richer at any cost.
I read that a SAL layer is blowing into the Hou area by tomorrow (Fri), and that it’ll contribute to even higher heat indices than projected, and poorer air quality. I read 117° index, but I’m hoping it’s just hype. Do you guys have a frame of reference for length or intensity complication of the SAL with the heat dome?
Thanks 🌺
Ha ha had to go thru all the comments about apps and tech companies to find another person interested in discussing weather. I had to look up SAL. Never heard of it before your comment. I think this is a useful forum for discussing macro weather …like SAL. So we’ll see if another person picks this up. My current bone is the lack of wind speed at 250 mb (where the jet lives). The jet looks very broken these days. No wind means no disturbances and persistent weather. According to GFS that all changes July 23. So we’ll see if that model is any good.
Is GFS saying that wind will pick up or that the dome might move? GFS on Weatherbell looks pretty dire next week with the dome consolidating and intensifying on Texas so if that has a chance of changing this month, t would be good to know.
I was referring to the GFS model of the wind at the 250 mb level – that is the jet stream. It is predicted to divert south instead of west to east over Nebraska as it is now. That change in direction should bring different weather. It is a computer model out 10 days but one can grasp at hope. My premise is that the sinking air aloft is stuck here in the greater southwest US with the current jet stream pattern.
Bring on the Saharan Dust clouds.
Thank you for calling out the Apple weather app (provided by weather.com) in your morning newsletter. It is NEVER right and completely ridiculous. Maybe they should spend more time on actual weather than hyping weather events and climate change. It is so sad when weather has to be anything but.
Something bad happened to the Apple weather app when Apple bought DarkSky (which was great and didn’t predict rainfall all the time). We can all write in and complain on the app review (and, btw, I haven’t been able to find decent weather radar info anywhere lately…not sure what’s up. A “competing” weather app that I used to trust? Their “future track” is a mess)
Maybe Apple calibrated there app for Seattle and it only works there?