In brief: A coastal low pressure system will bring (mostly) moderate rain showers into the Houston area today and tonight. Although we don’t expect any significant flooding, this will be a wet, windy, and dreary day and night. Friday is colder and windy, followed by sunnier conditions this weekend. Sunday looks rather nice with highs of about 60 degrees.
Thursday
After cold, northerly winds since Sunday evening, Houston’s pattern will now change somewhat today as winds shift to become more easterly. This is due to the presence of a coastal low pressure system that will bring increased rain chances today and tonight. Pretty much everyone will see rainfall, but how much, and when?
I think we’ll see an initial pulse of light to moderate showers this morning, with perhaps a slight reprieve during the middle of the day. The best chance of moderate or heavier showers will come later this afternoon, and especially during the evening as a slug of moisture moves up the coast from the southwest to northeast. We should then see the potential for moderate showers through the night, and possibly into the morning hours on Friday. The system should exit to the east between sunrise and noon on Friday.
Most of Houston is likely to pick up 1 to 3 inches of rainfall, and we could see some heavier bullseyes for coastal areas. I do not think these rains will cause any significant flooding issues, and therefore I am not putting a Stage 1 flood alert into place. Additionally, in the Houston metro area none of this will fall as freezing precipitation (the story could be different north of Huntsville or College Station). But do plan to take a little extra time out there because it will be fairly wet later today and tonight.
Temperatures will be in the lower 50s closer to the coast, and in the 40s further inland. The cold weather will be compounded by a strong easterly wind which may, at times, gust as high as 30 mph. So all in all, not a fun day or evening to be outside.
Friday
After the coastal low departs, we’ll see increasing northwesterly winds, and this will usher in another push of colder and drier air. So Friday will be a cold day, with highs in the lower 40s, and breezy conditions adding some wind chill on top. As skies clear out we’ll see ideal conditions for cold weather on Friday night, and much of the Houston area should see one more freeze. It will be light in Houston, but some areas in Montgomery County and to the northwest of Houston may see a hard freeze.
Saturday and Sunday
After the chilly start, the rest of the weekend looks sunny and warmer. Highs on Saturday should reach about 50 degrees, with nighttime temperatures a few degrees above freezing in the metro area. Sunday will be mostly sunny and warmer, with highs of around 60 degrees. Time to get back in the pool?
Next week
Most of next week looks to be slightly warmer, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s, and low temperatures in the vicinity of 40 degrees. This is fairly typical weather for mid-January. We’ll see a mixture of clouds and sunshine. As we head toward next weekend highs may climb toward about 70 degrees. There’s still a fair bit of uncertainty about weather for the Houston Marathon on Sunday January 19, as it looks like a front will be trying to come through next weekend. Temperatures, and any rainfall, will depend on the timing and strength of that front. Right now I’d ballpark start line temperatures at about 50 degrees, but there remains a wide variance in possibilities.
I’m just enjoying this brief stretch of winter while we have it cause I know this will likely be it after next week. We will be back to highs in the 70s and 80s with record highs again in no time in February probably. And then unbearable heat and humidity will set in for 6 months after April. For those of us that actually enjoy cold winter weather, this our week to shine.
I agree I don’t understand why so many people don’t like cold weather down here. We literally get 11 months a year of consistently warm and hot weather. If you can’t handle a couple of weeks of chilly weather than you need to move somewhere along the Equator where it never gets cold.
No, the transplants will be booted out by the ruthless natives where you don’t have a clue where they live. Heeeeeeeere’s Johnny!
Take your meds.
I’m loving the cold weather. All of my coworkers have been complaining about it all week, and I just sit in my cube enjoying feeling comfortable for once.
Since you love it so much you should get out of your CUBE and go outside and enjoy it
Pat needs a Snickers too
You work inside or outside?!
With the Gulf waters cooling off due to these more potent fronts I am going to venture a guess that we won’t see any record highs until April at the earliest. In addition with La Niña predicted to fade this Spring I would also venture a guess that this Summer will not be as hot as the last two we just endured. Not saying it won’t be hot, we live in Houston, TX. Just not as hot…
Exactly. The waters are cold now. These fronts are totally fixing the Gulf pho Mexico. No more weather extremes. We’ll have a nice cool summer.
LOL
SaulG Not likely. After the record hot fall and near record warm December, this one week of chilly weather will probably not cool the Gulf down enough for a “cooler” summer especially if the rest of winter and spring is much warmer than normal which it likely will be. Regardless a cold winter will not stop the summer from being very hot. The summer of 2011 proved that but it could help lower dew point levels some to where heat index values won’t be so extreme like they’ve been the past few summers.
Cooler waters evaporate less water which means dew points will not be as high. But it would take the rest of this winter being much colder than average and the spring being much cooler than normal in order for the majority of the Gulf to cool down enough for that. And with the background warming of the planet being 2 steps ahead everytime, I highly doubt that will ever happen again but my fingers are crossed though. 🤞🤞
it’Saul Good, man
I thought last summer was not that hot (comparatively), but then I saw that 2024 was our warmest year on record, beating out 2023. I think we may never have an actually cooler than average summer again, at least until/unless the earth stops heating up.
Which isn’t going to happen anytime soon unless a major volcanic eruption occurs, which would spew enough ash into the air to block the sunlight from warming the surface of Earth as much, but then we would have a lot of other issues to worry about.
We still can get record highs in winter especially if we get a dry west Texas airmass filter through. It doesn’t matter how cold it gets. In February 1996, we had an Arctic blast with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for multiple days in a row, and later that month, Houston hit a record high of 90.
And the summer can still be very hot even with a cold winter. 2011 was at the time the hottest summer on record after having a pretty cold winter of 2010-2011. The only difference is that a prolonged winter can cool the Gulf enough that the dew points won’t be quite so high during the summer. This means heat index values won’t be as excessive like they have been the past few summers. The cold stretch we are seeing now will not be enough to cool the Gulf down efficiency if February and the spring ends up being much warmer than normal I’m afraid.
We can still get record lows in winter as well. Even in a warming world. And as for this summer it is a pretty well established fact that La Niña summers are typically hotter and drier for this portion of the U.S. With that ENSO phenomenon forecast to fade to neutral or even El Niño on average we can expect less heat and more precipitation in the coming months.
Yes, that is true. We can still experience record lows in a warming world. Our most recent one was on January 16th, 2024. However, record lows are few and far between, and record highs occur much more often. For example, since 2021, Houston has had 55 record highs and just 3 record lows. I know the urban heat island effect contributed to some of those record highs, but even in rural areas, record highs happen far more often. And this is not even including all the record-warm nights we’ve had the past few years.
I wish that were true, but sometimes we can experience hell summers with persistent extreme heat and drought, even with El Nino, like in 2023 and 2009.
I feel compelled to warn against self-harm every time I see this guy post a comment here.
Have a snickers man, there’s no reason you have to be so negative first thing in the morning.
Rain aren’t going to materialize as usual. Overblown models again.
I seriously wonder why it is that with this kind of setup the rains always form/intensify just northeast of Houston, right after they pass us. Look a a loop of the radar of the past 2 hours and this is very clearly visible.
You are Correct. I have my suspicions, but I’m not going to bring it up on this forum. As it’ll trigger people who don’t see past the curtain. Just know this. You have Ellington Air Force base (military base) NASA, and NWS all near here. Also weather balloons aren’t allowed from the Houston NWS but everywhere else does.
Have you considered incorporating the three Pyramids in Galveston into your calculations? I think that’s a huge thing the public is overlooking and definitely worth considering.
It’s all done for the clicks. It happens way too often to be just some anomalies. “They” said Dallas was going to get a foot of snow and they might get an inch…maybe.
To @Mike who wrote, “Rain aren’t going to materialize as usual. Overblown models again.”
Hmmmm, really?? It’s pouring down around the Hou area now … to include us up here in Magnolia.
Time to get back in the pool?
That made me laugh out loud
I’m enjoying the normality of this cold spell! And without the pain of a hard freeze, too. The rains will be beneficial. It’s a great January in Houston in my book. Plus there’s an element of gratitude that we are not in a dire straits situation like the LA region is.
100% agreed
Is the coastal low pressure setting in the East?
And;
Any temperature below 40° Fahrenheit at night should be renamed “nighttime nightmare temperatures”. I will have to sleep on this renaming.