Following abnormal heat to start the week, Houston will shift into a much more seasonal pattern

In brief: High temperatures on Monday and Wednesday will flirt with record highs before a front on Thanksgiving—likely during the morning hours—surges into Houston. This will bring us seasonal weather for the holiday, and likely keep us in a cool pattern well into December.

Late November heat

Sunday’s high temperature officially reached 83 degrees at Bush Intercontinental Airport, 1 degree below the all-time record of 84 degrees set back in 1910. Today should be slightly warmer across the metro area, with highs generally in the mid- to upper-80s. So the all-time record for today, 86 degrees (set in 1967) is definitely in play.

We could have one more chance to set a record high on Wednesday, when the daily record high is 84 degrees (set in 1989). The normal high temperature for this time of year, in case you were wondering, is 70 degrees. This November has a chance to be the warmest November on record, but a cold snap later this week could pull us back from the abyss. We’ll see.

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Monday

With a persistent onshore flow today, we’ll see warm and humid conditions, with highs in the mid-80s for much of the area, and a few locations likely reaching the upper 80s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with a southerly wind at about 10 mph. As noted above, this is abnormally warm for this time of year, but a front is coming to bring some short-lived relief. I cannot entirely rule out a very isolated shower with the front this evening, but for the most part we’ll just see drier air moving into the region by around sunset, and during the evening and overnight hours. Low temperatures will fall into the 50s tonight.

Tuesday

Our weather will be seasonal on Tuesday, with mostly sunny skies, drier air, and highs of around 70 degrees. Winds will be from the north, and perhaps a bit gusty. As winds turn easterly and then southeasterly overnight, lows will fall to around 60 degrees as humidity starts to return.

Wednesday

I’m going to make a bold prediction, and if I’m wrong I’m sure there will be plenty of people to point it out. However, I think Wednesday will be our last 80-degree day of the year. And it’s going to be a warm one, with highs in the mid-80s (and as noted above, with a record high in play). Mostly sunny skies will aid in the warming, and it will be plenty humid as well. Lows will drop into the 60s.

Thanksgiving

We can all give thanks that a stronger front will arrive in Houston on Thursday. The timing is still a little bit up in the air, but most of our modeling guidance suggests the front should reach Houston by around sunrise or shortly after. There is unlikely to be any rainfall with the front, but it will usher some stronger northerly winds into the area. We’ll likely see northerly gusts up to 20 or 25 mph. Skies start out mostly cloudy in the morning, but I expect some clearing during the daytime. Expect highs in the upper 60s for most locations, with overnight lows dropping into the 40s in Houston, with upper 30s possible for some outlying areas.

Friday

Friday, or for some dedicated shoppers Black Friday, will be clear and cool. Expect a breezy and chilly morning. Skies will be mostly sunny, likely with highs in the low 60s. Temperatures on Friday night should fall to around 50 degrees in Houston, with colder conditions in outlying areas.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

We’ll start to see a bit of a warming trend on Saturday, with highs probably in the upper 60s. However a reinforcing front (with a very slight chance of rain) is likely to keep a lid on temperatures. Highs on Sunday should be in the low 60s or thereabouts. Nights stay chilly.

Most of next week will remain on the cooler side, with highs in the 60s, and lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Beginning Sunday night or Monday we’ll also see an increased chance of rain and cloudier skies. Alas it will be December by then, so I won’t be able to describe it as a cold November rain …