Summary: After a very cold night, Houston will emerge from the icebox over the next couple of days. Another front arrives Thursday night to cool us down for the weekend, when a light freeze will be possible. And after that? It will be warmer next week, with the likelihood of widespread showers. It’s too early to be too concerned about heavy rainfall, but something wet this way comes.
Wednesday
It’s really cold this morning. (Fun fact: Tuesday’s average temperature of 26 degrees was 28 degrees below normal. Alright, maybe that fact wasn’t that much fun). Temperatures across the metro area range from the mid-teens up in the middle of Montgomery County down to the upper 20s right on the coast.
Fortunately, this is as cold as it’s going to get. As soon as the Sun comes over the horizon, we’re going to see temperatures start climbing. Most of the region should be above freezing by 10 or 11 am CT this morning, on our way to highs in the mid-40s with sunny skies. As high pressure shifts to the east, we’ll see winds turning from the north to come from the southeast. As a result, lows tonight will only drop to around 40 degrees, with cloudy skies.
Thursday
This will be the warmest day of the week. Skies will start out cloudy, but we should see lots of sunshine during the afternoon hours. Look for highs to rise into the upper 60s to 70 degrees. Winds will be a bit gusty from the south, but it should feel pleasantly warm outside. But don’t get too attached as a front will come through on Thursday night, bringing an additional shot of colder air. The front’s passage should be a dry one, with lows dropping into the 40s overnight.
Friday
It will be sunny and cold on Friday, with highs perhaps only reaching 50 degrees. It’s also going to be rather windy, with gusts up to 30 mph from the north. Friday night should see a light freeze descend upon Houston again, with a hard freeze possible for far inland areas. Still, this night looks nothing like the cold were presently experiencing.
Saturday
Saturday should start out brisk and sunny. Highs are likely to only reach the mid-40s, and we’ll probably see some clouds developing during the afternoon hours. (If you’re wondering about weather in Baltimore on Saturday afternoon for the Texans game, it looks blustery and cold. Game-time temperatures should be in the low 20s, with gusty winds up to 30 mph. The wind chill will be about 10 degrees. No chance of snow, however. In CJ we trust, right?) Back in Houston, temperatures will again flirt with a freeze on Saturday night, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the urban core of Houston stays above freezing.
Sunday
I expect the sunshine to be largely gone on Sunday, with highs perhaps in the low 50s, give or take. Rain is definitely coming, but at this point I expect it to hold off until Sunday evening or the overnight hours.
Next week
It’s a bit too early for confidence in the details, but we’re going to see some distinct changes next week. Instead of very dry air, our atmosphere will turn more humid, indicative of much more moisture. Temperatures are going up, with daytime highs around 70 degrees, and nights likely somewhere in the 50s. And we’re going to see a series of disturbances move in from the west that will increase our rain chances.
Alongside this favorable setup, there is a pretty strong signal for rain showers during the period of Monday through Thursday across the models we look at. As a very preliminary guess, I’d say we’re probably looking at accumulations on the order of 2 to 6 inches. In the winter months rains pile up more quickly, because the evaporation rate is slower. So we’ll be keeping a tab on the potential for street flooding and other impacts. It’s not something to worry overmuch about right now, but if you have outdoor plans next week, well, good luck.
Hey folks, apologies for any issues that you might have seen with loading the story page this morning. I’m chasing down an incredibly annoying intermittent tech issue that’s causing a whole variety of weird problems. Hoping to have it put to bed in the next few days!!
So, it’s 8.30am and we’re sitting at 20°f here in Magnolia. Pretty soon I’ll turn off all the dripping faucets, relax, and maybe have a nap. (was up at 5am checking on the drips and running water thru pipes).
Prediction is 47° today, with a low of 36°. I have one gutter on the barn that slightly broke loose because it filled with water (light rain) yesterday morning, then the freezing temps froze the water, causing extra weight. Thankfully it’s the only repair I have because of the extreme temps 👍
Thanks to the SCW team!
I never did get above freezing yesterday. What was supposed to be 16 hours below freezing ended up being 60 hours.
Hi Mary, we had 37 yesterday. It was sunny and quite nice – other than the wind.
Not sure how warm it got yesterday, but the temperatures where I live were stuck mainly around 30, not sure it managed to get to freezing, maybe in the afternoon it did. If I would have known it would be so cold I wouldn’t even have bothered having hope for my plants and wouldn’t have tried to cover them. It makes me sad to see the dead trees out there, but winter kills. I hope that people stop crying about the heat in summer. Now, it might be warmer but rain is expected at least off and on next week. This drought is just beating us up.
Plants native to this eco-region usually survive this stuff just fine. Sure, the above-ground growth may die back, which is normal for most plants anywhere. But the root tissue does fine and will produce growth again in the spring. I cover nothing at my house near Lake Houston and everything does just fine. Drought has nothing to do with the winter weather. If anything, a proper winter will allow for plants to go dormant, which encourages new, healthy growth when things warm back up.
I had a grapefruit tree in my backyard which was killed by the 2021 freeze, took until that fall before the root system sprouted new growth, only to be killed by the light freeze we had at the beginning of 2022. It grew back again late that summer, just in time to succumb to the hard freezes in December. Then last summer I began sporadically watering the third round when it began withering due to the heat and drought conditions, and yet once again it’s been taken out by sub-freezing weather. Anyway, I don’t actually like grapefruit, so not any big loss for me, but I did like being able to offer letting people take some if they did. I do wonder how many more times the roots will be capable of producing any new growth, especially since there’s only been one small area where it’s occured.
Excitedly watching the outdoor temp climb on my thermostat, might have to throw a little party when it passes freezing.
21 Monday night and 24 last night. No pipes frozen. Doing mental victory dance, but not spiking the football. Winter isn’t over yet.
Best to put thermometer in your attics. Where all you have to do is pull door down enough to read the temp from below. If it’s above freezing, then you know your pipes are ok. If it’s below freezing you still have added protection with insulation and the warm rooms below where heat rises to ceiling to keep pipes above freezing. (If your plumbing runs thru the attic)
It says 41 degrees outside right now, but man it still feels the same as yesterday lol. I am so over this cold weather already. Bring on the 70s!
After failing to drop below freezing once in 2023 a couple of frigid nights seems a little easier to handle. And it certainly could be a lot worse. In 1976 the mercury dropped to freezing or below 35 times, 33 times in the terrible winters of 89′ and 16 times in 1983. The average is roughly 6-8 freezes per calendar year for IAH. It will be interesting to see how the rest of this winter goes and next winter starts…
I turned the water back on. I see there’s likely a low of 28 forecasted. Are we going to need to turn the water back off again? Or is it unlikely to he a hard freeze this time?
I know forecast says low of 40 but we are already there. any chance it keeps dropping and freezes again?
Freezing one week 70s the next