In brief: Today’s post discusses the favorable setup for rain on Thursday and Friday in the greater Houston area, with the best conditions closer to the coast. Rains should diminish some this weekend, with Sunday looking especially sunny. Overall our temperatures look moderate for the rest of August.
A favorable setup for rain
There’s a lot of support for showers and thunderstorms to develop in our region today and Friday, with better coverage especially during the afternoon and evening hours. The atmosphere is laden with moisture, we have a nearly stationary boundary (essentially a dying front), the sea breeze, and plenty of daytime heating. In such an environment we are likely to see widespread showers, and within that some stronger and possibly severe thunderstorms.
The most likely time for activity is from mid-afternoon through the early evening hours, and the most favorable conditions will be closer to the coast (essentially, south of Interstate 10). Rain amounts will be widely variable, with some areas picking up a quarter of an inch, and other areas possibly 3 or more inches through Saturday. As a result we will probably see some ponding on roadways, and perhaps a few isolated flooding issues. Although we don’t anticipate major disruptions from these rains, you’ll want to check the radar before heading out. Slightly higher pressures should begin to limit shower coverage by Saturday.
Thursday
Overall rain chances are about 60 percent today in the region, although I’d go higher than that closer to the coast, and less for inland areas. We will see partly sunny skies, with light north or northeast winds. High temperatures for most locations will be in the mid-90s, but temperatures will quickly drop into the 80s, or possibly even upper 70s, within showers and thunderstorms. Humidity will remain high. Lows tonight drop into the upper 70s with an ongoing (albeit lower) chance of showers.
Friday
This is probably the day when most people will see the most rain, so again prepare for the possibility of some brief disruptions. With increased cloud cover, expect high temperatures in the vicinity of 90 degrees. Winds will be light. Lows on Friday night will drop into the upper 70s for most locations.
Saturday and Sunday
The first half of the weekend will see some lingering clouds and showers. Highs on Saturday, accordingly, should reach the lower 90s for most locations. But we should definitely be on a downward trend in terms of amounts, as high pressure begins to build to the west of the region. Sunday should be mostly sunny, with rain chances only in the vicinity of 20 percent. Expect highs in the mid-90s. So for beach and pool activities, Sunday is the pick of the litter.
Next week
To start next week we will remain in a pattern of mostly sunny weather, with highs in the low- to mid-90s and lower end rain chances. However by Wednesday or so we may start to feel the impacts of another decaying front. This probably will bring some increased rain chances, although to what extent it’s difficult to say. High temperatures also may hold somewhere in the vicinity of 90 degrees for much of Houston, which is a pretty great way to end August in these parts.
The Atlantic tropics
Hurricane Erin is passing almost directly between Bermuda and the Outer Banks this morning, remaining far enough offshore to avoid bringing catastrophic damage to both locations. After some intensification on Tuesday, it is also beginning to weaken. There are other storms that may form in the coming days, but I’m happy to report that we see no imminent threats to the Gulf at all. Again, this is a pretty great place to be, tropics-wise, as we get toward the end of August.
