In brief: Some areas of Houston got hit by Sunday night’s storms, and others did not. We will now experience a few days of calmer weather this week before the chance for heavy rainfall on Thursday and Friday of this week. The details of that forecast remain hazy, but it’s something to watch.
Rainfall needed
For central and northwest areas of the Houston region, Sunday night’s storms brough some much needed rainfall, with one or more inches in an area roughly between Highway 290 and I-45 North. Much of the rest of the metro area got significantly less. That could change during the second half of this week, with the combination of an upper-level system and plenty of moisture in the atmosphere bringing a healthy chance of rain to the forecast. It is still too early to say whether this is a case in which most of Houston receives about 1 inch of rain, or whether some areas are at risk of 4 to 6 inches. We will be watching it closely.
Monday
Last night’s storms were prompted by a weak front sagging into the area, and this has helped push lows down to near 60 degrees this morning for much of Houston. This is likely to be the “coldest” we get for the next week at least. Highs today will reach the lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies and mostly calm winds. The onshore flow will return later this afternoon or this evening, so lows are unlikely to fall below the low 60s tonight.
Tuesday
This will be a warm—borderline hot—day as we see mostly sunny skies and a warm southerly flow. Expect high temperatures in the upper 80s with a few locations possibly hitting 90 degrees. Some slightly drier air (dewpoints in the upper 50s) will help the air warm more rapidly. Winds will generally be light, perhaps at 5 mph from the east. Lows on Tuesday night will drop into the mid-60s.
Wednesday
A few more clouds on Wednesday should help to limit high temperatures in the mid-80s. After Wednesday the region will not see much (any?) sunshine until at least Saturday. Expect another mild night in the mid-60s.
Thursday and Friday
The period of Thursday afternoon through Friday night should bring a high chance of rain as an upper-level system moves into the region. In terms of most impactful rains, with the potential for street flooding, we’re probably looking at late Thursday night into Friday afternoon, but those details will have to wait. These will be cloudy days, with highs mostly in the upper 70s, and muggy evenings. The global models are indicating the potential for a heavy pocket of rainfall, with several inches of rain during this period. However it still is not clear whether this will line up north of the Houston metro area, or more directly over the city and its suburbs. For now I think it’s best to say that we’re going to see some rain during the second half of the work week, and there’s the distinct potential for heavy rainfall and street flooding. We may need to break out the Space City Weather flood scale, but I’m going to hold off on that decision until Tuesday’s post.
Saturday, Sunday, and beyond
At this point it looks like things will begin to clear up by Saturday, so if you have some outdoor plans this weekend all is not lost. Both days this weekend should see partly sunny skies with highs in the lower 80s, give or take. We cannot rule out some showers each day, but the overall odds appear fairly low. A weak front may arrive by Monday, or so, to bring us some slightly cooler nights. We’ll see!
Not a drop of rain here in Pearland. Soil is cracking and the lawn is thirsty!
My allergies already feel better this morning thanks to the inch of rain we received overnight. I say bring on the 4-6” to get rid of the yellow poison for good, it’s been way too dry lately anyway.
Big SCW fan but I feel like we were undersold the risk of Sunday night’s storm. For the Katy area, that was a scary 3AM surprise.
It was definitely an 8/10 on the excitable dog scale, which I was not fully expecting either.
Since NOAA was decimated, that’s the way it’ll be from now on – data is missing. Matt wrote a good piece on the upcoming effects on forecasting with holes on the Eyewall yesterday.
The rule I’m following is regular model watching, and expect at least twice as intense as what’s put out by the models. I was expecting a difficult night. We had about two hours of lightning and thunder.
For the last week, the GFS only showed light rains for yesternight’s storms with the ECMWF showing a little more. This is what we’ve been dealt, right in time for hurricane season.
Grateful for Matt & Eric & Dwight. We’ll need them now more than ever.
I wanted to ask if there was a place to look up last night’s wind speeds, but I may be out of luck.
Raise your hand if you woke up at 2am and never went back to sleep before work.
👋
(more info on my other post)
Big outdoor event in H Town with the Houston Open at Memorial Park Wed-Sun. Let’s hope the rain stays north for sake of the tournament, even though we need the rain.
Last night’s “storms” were pretty lame in my area. A few rumbles of thunder, gusty wind, and barely enough rain to wet the sidewalk. And no, I do not expect to get any rain worth a crap later this week either. The lower end of the precipitation forcast is always what ends up happening where I live.
Hey Matt and Eric, can you give a prediction for weather along the Texas Independence Relay trail this weekend Saturday through Sunday morning?
Right now its too early to give a prediction. Best to wait Wednesday/Thursday for forecast for the weekend
Precipitable water levels – Eric, could you explain that further?
That was quite the light and sound show this morning. Of my two GSDs, one gets freaked out at even the vaguest hint of thunder. The other will happily lay on the porch and watch the storm blow overhead unless a bolt hits close enough to rattle the house. Last night had both of them in the bed with us. Not the most restful situation LOL.
Beaumont had heavy thunder and lightning for an hour straight last night, and 60+ mph wind gusts. Sabine Pass had wind gusts as high as 83 mph.
Wow. The very early hours this AM in the Magnolia | Tomball area was very spooky.
Rain began about 2am, then it suddenly got hazardous. The NWS radar page showed extreme rainfall and high winds (easily 40-50 mph), AND, after a bit of time, we got small hail banging on the house. Yea, NWS had a “hail likely” warning issued.
Just about 3am, we lost power, and reported it. Not long after we reported, we got an update from Centerpoint acknowledging … and that “3,500+” are experiencing an outage. Our power was restored about an hour later. Although, we did experience 2-3 additional “2 minute outages” that were annoying.
Our Nest security cams captured some interesting “movement detected” images, when lightning struck. Seriously, the photos show as if it is 12noon, bright and sunny with no clouds.
Last night around 3:15, several strong gusts, two power failures, even thunder – nary a drop of rain.
From memory the rain map for this week looks like it did ahead of the tax day flood. Is this event going to be able create that kind of catastrophe?