Hello, mid-90s. A great time to be alive, but not so great a temperature profile

In brief: Houston’s weather turns stable and predictable for the next week. Although some thunderstorm chances remain today, by and large we are moving to a mostly sunny, hot, and humid pattern through the holiday weekend. Expect fireworks at night, and fiery weather during the daytime.

A warmer pattern

As high pressure starts to build over the area, Houston should see its most sustained heat of the year over the next week or so. We have had a few days of 95-degree plus heat here or there this summer, but from now at least through the weekend we should consistently be in the mid- to upper 90s with very warm nights. We will see mostly sunny skies to go along with this heat, with only a smattering of rain chances. So basically, prepare for that rich Houston summer weather you know and love, because it now lies at hand.

Tuesday

As noted above, we can expect high temperatures this afternoon to reach the mid-90s for most of the Houston area away from the coast. Skies should be partly to mostly sunny. I do think there is a decent chance of showers and a few thunderstorms today as there remains a fair bit of moisture in the atmosphere. This is probably the kind of thing where perhaps 20 percent of the area sees rainfall, but there will be some pockets of fairly intense rain in those locations that do see rain. Winds will come from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph this afternoon. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Wednesday and Thursday

High temperatures will range from the low-90s near the coast to upper-90s for inland areas during these two days, with partly to mostly sunny skies. A few isolated showers will be possible during the afternoon hours, with peak heating. Nights will be partly cloudy and humid.

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday

The weekend should bring plenty of sunshine and heat. Specifically for the Fourth of July, rain chances are near zero with plenty of sunshine expected. It’s a good holiday for the beach, but with the Sun at its highest level in the sky for the year, you’ll quickly burn if you leave skin exposed for too long. For fireworks we have few weather concerns. It will be humid, of course, but it is always humid on the Fourth of July in Houston. The rest of the weekend will see continued temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s. Perhaps there is a 10 or 20 percent chance of rain by Sunday.

Next week

As high pressure eases off a bit, we probably will see a slight uptick in rain chances next week, as well as a slight moderation in daily high temperatures. But how high those rain chances rise, and how much the mercury falls, remains an open question.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center is highlighting an area in the northeast Gulf as a potential area of development over the next few days. None of the models are getting too excited about this system, however. Regardless it is unlikely to have any meaningful impact on our weather here in Texas. Beyond this, the tropics appear to be quiet.