In brief: We interrupt your weekend to bring you an update on impacts from a cool front that will approach the Houston region and stall out. The primary threat is severe thunderstorms later today and on Sunday, although not everyone will see inclement weather.
There is a lot going on in the metro region this weekend, from big events at the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo to the World Baseball Classic to much, much more. We’re going to need to be weather aware.
In the big picture a cool front move into the region, where it will clash with very warm and moist air. Where this front ultimately stalls will serve as a focus for showers along with potentially strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. However this will be rather location based, so whereas some areas may see 2 or more inches of rain, others will see considerably less. Some uncertainty remains with regard to the details, but generally here is what I expect to happen.
For now the radar is quiet, and we expect it to remain so in Houston throughout the morning hours. During the afternoon we may see some scattered showers across Houston, but nothing serious. However off to our northwest, in the vicinity of College Station, a more organized line of storms is likely to develop around mid-afternoon. This mass of storms is likely to threaten areas within the greater Houston region along and north of Interstate 10 during the evening hours. There is the potential for strong winds and hail with some of these thunderstorms should they turn severe. This threat should persist until around midnight or so.
If you’re headed to the Rodeo on Saturday here’s what I can say. First, the best chance of severe weather should be elsewhere this evening. However, we cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms during the evening in the vicinity of NRG Stadium. So take care, but at this point I would not cancel plans.
After midnight the focus of storms is likely to turn closer to the coast, particularly areas including Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers counties—I’m thinking areas nearer to Galveston Bay. For these coastal areas rainfall will be more likely during the pre-dawn hours on Sunday and during the daytime. (Rain chances for areas north of I-10 will not be zero on Sunday, but for now they look to be considerably lower). On Sunday the dynamics for severe weather are less favorable, but I still expect to see some pockets of heavy rainfall within stronger storm cells.
In terms of temperatures expect warm and muggy conditions on Saturday, with slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s on Sunday for most of the region. Rain chances diminish some on Monday.
If there are significant changes to the forecast we will update accordingly.
