In brief: After Wednesday’s showers and thunderstorms, high pressure is more fully in control of our weather and should dominate through the weekend. We’ll have plenty of sunshine, and highs in the mid-90s. By Monday some rain chances return and we’re likely to see some slightly cooler temperatures. But the extent of the rain remains an open question.
Thursday
High pressure has settled into place, and this will set the stage for warmer and sunnier weather for the next four days. This pattern of generally sinking air and a capping inversion should preclude the development of any showers until at least Monday.
A couple of factors will combine to push highs into the mid-90s and, for some inland locations, possibly the upper 90s. These are consistent sunshine during the daytime hours and slightly lower dewpoints. While a dewpoint of 70 degrees is by no means comfortable, it is considerably lower than we’ve seen at points this summer. So mornings and evenings over the next few days will be warm, but ever so slightly less humid. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the mid-70s.
Friday
Another hot and sunny day. Additionally, we’ll see light winds, generally at just 5 to 10 mph from the south.
Saturday and Sunday
We’re likely to see continued hot and sunny weather through the weekend, with most locations reaching high temperatures of around 95 degrees. Please do be mindful of the potential for sunburns and skin cancer due to exposure. We are just two weeks from the summer solstice, when the Sun reaches the highest point in the sky. The bottom line is that you can burn quickly during the middle hours of the day.
Next week
Some sort of pattern change is is in store for early next week. However, I’m afraid that, at this point, a weak front is unlikely to push all the way into Houston. My best guess for what we see is some increased cloud cover and better rain chances for a few days, perhaps Monday through Wednesday. This, in turn, is likely to help keep daily temperatures in the 90 to 93-degree range, which is fairly typical for this time of year. In any case, I don’t think we’re looking at any crazy kind of storm activity or heavy rainfall potential, probably just light to moderate showers. But as always, we’ll need to fine tune this forecast as we get closer.
Hurricane season
There’s nothing of note yet in the tropics, but we’re starting to see some indications that Atlantic storm activity may start to pick up a little bit in about 10 days. Please join me this afternoon to discuss the season ahead with Reliant’s Lyris Leos. We’ll be taking your questions starting at 2 pm CT on Facebook Live.
Eric is keeping it real by not hyping up a June cool front to bring heat relief. We all know the rules here. The way we get heat relief in the summer is these boundaries or disturbances to produce thunderstorms that can cool us off and make things tolerable like yesterday, that was fantastic!
The cold fronts that can make you break out the sweaters and the pumpkin candles, that’s a good 4 months away maybe 5.
Despite the heat and humidity streaks, we’ve been getting timely rainfall lately so I’m hopeful that will be the theme for this summer what do you guys n gals think?
I think you’re deluded. This is physics. Cooling rain is now the exception, not the rule. Enjoy it while it lasts.
Sean has the insight on future weather this summer, do tell stranger
So Sean do you think that we’re going to have a rematch with 2022 and 2023 summers? Call me a optimistic fool but I think not.
I hope you’re wrong, no offense.
I think you wouldn’t be too broken up if you were wrong.
Lol, we’re all hoping I’m wrong
Patrick wrote: The cold fronts that can make you break out the sweaters and the pumpkin candles, that’s a good 4 months away maybe 5.
=== end
Uhhh-mmm … as an original resident of the surrounding Houston area (Hou, Seabrook, Cypress, and now Magnolia … plus Aggieland too many years ago to admit) for the last 67 years (yea, 67), Winter here mostly begins late Dec to Jan. Heck, I even remember a Christmas or two wearing short sleeves, pants, and flip-flops!!
Yes but the cold fronts typically start coming in around October. In fact, the first weak front that drops lows into the 60s is often late September. (Not last year, but that was a weird year).
Respect.
I was never a big fan of 10 day forecasts. Why bother? They almost always change before the 10 days gets here.
Even though the vast bulk of summer remains, I’m fully ready for getting on the other side of the solstice.
I’ve been outside all morning and it definitely feels less humid, air is clearer, and skies are clear and blue. Not sure if its due to the rain yesterday, but given the lower humidity and dewpoints (relative to Houston people!) I’d say this was a front. This is extremely tolerable and I hope next week is the same. Hang in there, we’re around the 100 day mark from our first possible Fall front.
Last night was the first time I noticed how bright it still was outside when I was trying to get the kid down for bedtime. Come on solstice!
Even though it feels sweltering in the sun, the dew points are in the low 70s and it actually feels noticeably less humid compared to how it’s been. It actually does not feel that bad in the shade. There is a big difference between dew points in the low 70s vs low 80s. It’s sad when dew points in the low 70s feels like a relief.
“slightly lower dew points” somehow doesn’t capture how much better it feels to me than last couple of weeks of stifling, heavy moisture in the air. It’s still hot, but it’s a so much more manageable kind hot. Is there anything else that plays into this or is a 70 dew point really this different than a 78 dew point?
There is a big difference between a 70 degree dew point vs a 78 degree dew point. There is significantly more water vapor in the atmosphere with a 78+ degree dew point. A DP of 70 is still pretty sticky but DPs in the upper 70s is when you get that extra thick layer mugginess. There are other factors that come into play as well. The relative humidity was fairly low today which helped it feel a little more dry. The humidity levels are usually higher when the DPs are in the upper 70s and low 80s. This will exacerbate how bad it feels. Unfortunately as the Gulf continues to warm, we will see more and more days with DPs in the upper 70s and 80s in the coming decades. This makes it much more dangerous especially when air temperatures reach the upper 90s and 100+. Our bodies just cannot cool off in those conditions.