In brief: A smattering of showers and thunderstorms will be with us today and tomorrow. More scattered storms are in play for Sunday. And then widespread rain and thunderstorms will be the forecast for much of next week, with locally heavy rain, some flooding, gusty winds at times, but also cooler temperatures.
A quick housekeeping note: The latest version of the Space City Weather app is available for Android and iOS now. Dwight will have a post out later this morning explaining the changes that went into this version and how you can report any bugs (not just the mosquitoes landing on your phone inside your house). As a side note, since beginning this journey with Eric almost 10 years ago now, it’s pretty cool to see how far this has come. No app is perfect, but I am proud of ours, and I hope you find it to be useful.
Today
We have two clusters of storms this morning in the area. The first is to the west of Sugar Land, dropping across Wharton County. A second area of storms extends from Kingwood east toward Beaumont. Those should continue to drop southward and gradually weaken. Look for a few more showers and storms to form this afternoon.
After failing to hit 90 yesterday thanks to cloud cover and rain-cooled air behind yesterday morning’s system, highs will top off in the low-90s today. It actually felt kind of nice yesterday!
Weekend
Saturday actually looks like a fairly decent day overall. Yes, there will be a chance of showers or a thunderstorm. But on the whole, rain chances will be at a relative low compared to what’s ahead Sunday and beyond. So look for a smattering of afternoon showers and highs in the low-90s.
Sunday looks a little busier. We’ll have a little more moisture and enough support for more in the way of scattered thunderstorms. Lows will be in the 70s, with highs around 90 or a little hotter depending on rainfall.
Monday through Thursday
If you have plans next week that involve anything outdoors, make sure you also have an alternative lined up. It looks like a chaotic, busy week in the atmosphere over Texas. We will have numerous vigorous disturbances pushing across Texas with a large trough in the upper atmosphere. This means numerous daily rain chances, locally heavy rain, a few strong storms, and cooler temperatures than normal.
It remains very difficult to predict exactly when the heaviest rain will be. Right now I’d hone in on later Monday or Tuesday and again later Wednesday or Thursday for the best odds, but that may shift around a bit. What we do know is that the amount of moisture available in the atmosphere will be 100 to 150 percent of normal, which typically translates to at least a couple rounds of heavy rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center currently has forecasts for excessive rain out through Tuesday and has the region at least in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) each day. I would say to expect an additional 3 to 6 inches *on average* across the region. Some places may see a bit less than that, but it’s conceivable that a couple places will see more with enough storm activity through next Thursday. We will likely have to dust off the flood scale again Sunday or Monday and keep it up through Thursday or Friday. This would be primarily for street flooding concerns. Check back with us for more perhaps on Sunday.
While thunderstorms are likely, severe weather is merely possible, not likely. Any severe storms should be isolated and brief. There will be gusty winds at times with any storms, and severe or not, that may be both unsettling to you and the power system. So periodic temporary power outages can’t be ruled out through next week. I get the anxiety, trust me.
As noted, cooler weather will arrive next week thanks to the clouds and rain.
For example, on Wednesday, like some people’s taste in music, we will struggle to get past the mid-80s. These suppressed daytime highs will continue into late week before we slowly rebound next weekend. Nighttime lows will not necessarily play along, as they should remain in the 70s.
“ For example, on Wednesday, like some people’s taste in music, we will struggle to get past the mid-80s” – perfection. Chefs kiss. No notes
Beat me to it.
I feel attacked. 😀
80s music was the best! Thanks for the update.
Congratulations on 10 years of doing SCW. I love it and depend on it!
Looks like we will make it through July with below avg. temps. Will summer heat come back in August for us? Hopefully not like last August with the Heat Dome of hell.
I highly doubt this August will be anything like last August. Historically the high pressure ridge is at it’s strongest over us in August. So this August may be very hot and dry at times but we have alot more moisture in our soils this summer thanks to all the rain. This will help keep afternoon temperatures at bay unlike last summer when we had little to no moisture in the soil to help cool the afternoons down. We may have to worry about very high heat index levels though since there is excess moisture in the ground plus record warm Gulf temperatures putting extra amounts of water vapor into the air.
This is all speculation of course. I could be completely wrong. The weather continues to suprise me more and more every year.
Yes, the summer of 2023 was indeed miserable – but, the high pressure Heat Dome did shield us from the ravages of Gulf storms. If I had to choose between (a) another Heat Dome in August (and September) this year or (b) weeks of hurricane anxiety, I would go with the Heat Dome. Unfortunately it’s not so simple as “picking one’s preferred poison.”
😂 Don’t knock “mid-80s music” too much. At least it replaced the disco stuff that during a MLB “Disco Demolition Night” promotion, resulted in a riot at old Comisky Park in Chicago. 😂 (July 12, 1979)
Apart from Disco, 70s was THE decade for music.
As someone who grew up in the 80s, it was a dark time musically. Only in hindsight does the awful nature of what we went through come into focus….
Also, 80s and rainy in July? Sign me up!
Please explain “…the 80s, it was a dark time musically.”
I don’t understand this line “I would say to expect an additional 3 to 6 inches on average across the region” – does this mean in addition to the amounts indicated in the graphic shown or is this your estimate for the entire time frame of next week? Thanks.
Hey John. So what I’m saying is most people should expect about 3 to 6 inches of rain through next week. However, some will see a bit less than that, while others could indeed see more. But when you tally the total rain up for the next week across the region, it should average about 3-6.
I love you guys. Your weather reporting is good information without sensationalizing it. Thank you for doing what you do. You give us very useful information. By the way, great job on Hurricane Beryl. I know it was a tricky one, and you both did a great job. Bill Ingram
It sucks that we get these amazingly mild – for July – temps, but the swarms of mosquitos are so bad we can’t enjoy them.
Here in SL, I thought they were bad a couple days ago, but despite the city spraying on Friday, they’ve only gotten worse.
I really love this site, the data, the information, the 80s references. I especially like how someone had tweeted that line and it’s getting a lot of traction.
There has actually been new music since the mid 80’s? Who knew!
Yes, but the vast majority of it stinks.
Agree!!
Chaotic weather in Texas? What else is new?
I’m tired of living with history-making weather so often.
Related to yesterday’s post (thanks for the mosquito report!), does the City of Houston still spray for mosquitoes? Last summer was an outlier b/c of the drought, but it seems like maybe that was something dropped during the onset of the pandemic when they started shifting personnel and budget?
Depending on the City of Houston to get anything done (including picking up trash and recycling) is a huge mistake. Our HOA does its own spraying. They were out a few days after Beryl. And need to be back again.
“Depend” is a strong word. I was just asking if it was still theoretically a thing in the world. I knew they were split-shifting drivers between the various pick ups but I didn’t know where spraying fell in that mix. I’ll give them credit that the first round of tree debris was picked up this week, as was regular trash last week and this week. I’ll take those wins.
Oddly, zero mosquitoes here around our Magnolia property (for years).