In brief: The region will heat up today and Friday, with moderately drier air in place. A combination of factors including a slow-moving front will bring elevated rain chances this weekend, particularly on Sunday. Slightly cooler weather will follow.
Thursday
A close look at the radar reveals a few showers right along the coast this morning—that’s the stalled front that has brought modestly cooler weather into the Houston region this morning. Lows at Conroe have dropped all the way into the mid-60s, but most of the metro area has settled into the low 70s. Because this dry air warms efficiently, and skies will be sunny, we will see highs today in the mid- to upper-90s for much of the region away from the coast. With dewpoints in the 60s this afternoon it will be a slightly drier heat, but it’s still going to be pretty hot. Winds will be light, from the west at about 5 mph. Lows tonight will be a couple of degrees warmer than this morning.
Friday
This will be another sunny and warm day, with highs in the mid-90s for much of the area. However, winds will turn more southerly, with gusts up to 15 or 20 mph, and this will herald the return of the onshore flow. This is one factor that will lead to higher rain chances over the weekend, but only one. Friday night will see lows drop into the upper 70s.
Saturday
The first half of the weekend will see a few more clouds in the sky, but there should be enough sunshine to help push temperatures for most into the vicinity of 90 degrees, or just above. Rain chances are about 40 percent, but for the most part I think any showers that develop will be light to moderate, and not super impactful. With ample humidity in place, look for a warm Saturday night.
Sunday
Rain chances will peak on Sunday, likely in the 60 to 80 percent range. Why? Because the combination of a front dropping down from the north, along with an influx of moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Lorena in the Pacific, should bring a healthy chance of showers across the area. We certainly cannot rule out the threat of heavy rainfall, but at this time I expect most of the region to pick up between 0.25 and 1 inch of rain this weekend, rather than seeing any significant flooding. But we’ll keep an eye on it. Highs, for the most part, should top out in the upper 80s.
Next week
At this point it looks like the front will drag into Houston on Sunday-ish, and stall out near the coast. Depending on where the front stops, we could see some lingering showers next week for coastal areas, or they should remain offshosre. Regardless, we should see a couple of days in the upper 80s to 90 degrees, with nights in the lower 70s. Some inland areas may drop into the upper 60s again, so pretty nice overall. Most of next week should be sunny.
Tropics
A disturbance progressing across the Atlantic is increasingly likely to become a tropical storm, and then possibly a hurricane later this week. There remains a ton of uncertainty about where this will ultimately go, and since it is early September we need to keep an eye on its development. However, overall the odds of this system affecting Texas look to be quite low at this time.
