In brief: Heat records are continuing to fall across the region as Houston (and much of Texas) falls under the sway of high pressure. In today’s post we explain just how abnormal this is for May, and look ahead to a hot weekend. There is a modest chance of some relief next week.
Heat records fall
As expected, the city of Houston broke its high temperature record on Wednesday. The new mark of 96 degrees surpasses the old record of 93 degrees, set back in 2018. The local office of the National Weather Service also provided some additional nuggets of information to put this May heat wave into context:
- The average date of the city’s first 95-degree day is June 13, this year we did it on May 13
- Before this year, the last time Houston was this hot, this early in May was 1967 (96 on May 8)
- This year’s mark of 95 on May 13 is the fifth earliest we’ve been that hot it in a calendar year
In addition, we are likely to tie or exceed the city’s record high temperature today (94 degrees, set in 2018) and possibly on Friday (94 degrees, 2022) although by then we might see a very slight moderation in temperatures.
Thursday
If you’ve stepped outside during the last couple days, you have a pretty good idea of what to expect for Thursday. Partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to a sunny afternoon, with high temperatures generally in the mid-90s in Houston, with upper 90s possible further inland, and slightly cooler highs closer to the coast. Southerly winds will, again, be gusty from the south at up to 25 mph. Lows tonight will only drop into the upper 70s.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
Not much changes this weekend, when most of the area should see highs in the low- to mid-90s. There may be some variance in cloud cover, with a few more clouds on Friday and Sunday, but in general I still expect there to be a fair amount of sunshine during the daytime hours. We can expect that persistent southerly breeze through the weekend, with gusts peaking during the afternoon hours. Nights remain the same, warm and muggy. Rain chances are close to, but not quite zero.
Next week
The first half of next week starts out warm, essentially a continuation of this week’s weather. However much of our model guidance is now hinting at a weak front approaching, and possibly pushing into the area by mid-week. This certainly is no guarantee, and its impact should be limited. But at least it may spark some showers, and give us a bit of drier air. We’ll just have to see how the forecast evolves over the next few days.
“Even a fool is thought wise if he keeps silent, and discerning if he holds his tongue.”
Let’s have a more civil comment section today, kids. If you’re thinking of derailing the discussion by posting divisive dumb garbage intended only to troll people—like the comment I deleted just a moment ago—then read the above quote and take it to heart before committing your words to the page.
Just to echo this — we’ve had several climate change “hoax” comments. This is the kind of discourse, that if it continues, is going to lead us to simply close the comments section.
So, just to be clear then – No debate allowed on this platform if one has a difference of opinion? And who decides what is dumb garbage vs a differing point of view?
Differences of opinion are fine. Debate away, but when your opinion is factually incorrect and you keep doubling down on it and posting debunked studies and other BS to try to prop it up in the face of overwhelming evidence, don’t be surprised if it gets removed.
If the thing you want to post is “cLiMaTe cHanGe iS a hOaX,” it’s dumb garbage and not worth hearing. Anthropogenic climate change is settled science among everything except the quack set. You can have an opinion about it, but a factually incorrect opinion like “cLiMaTe cHanGe iS a hOaX” — a claim undermined by massive, overwhelming evidence to the contrary — is worthless and doesn’t deserve space in public discourse. That contributes as much to the conversation as talking about flat earth or 5G mind control or antivax lunacy — more nonsense garbage topics I’m also happy to delete.
Is that clear enough?
Since I couldn’t reply directly to Kyle
“In science, ‘fact’ can only mean ‘confirmed to such a degree that it would be perverse to withhold provisional assent.’ I suppose that apples might start to rise tomorrow, but the possibility does not merit equal time in physics classrooms.”-Stephen Jay Gould
There have been plenty of scientific theories that were/are controversial, like evolution, like plate tectonics, like anthropogenic climate change. In the early phase of inquiry, the big question is: “Is it real?” The data gets critically examined and debated by plenty of experts, but eventually, if the evidence is solid, a consensus is reached, and the debate shifts to other questions, such as “how does it happen?”, “can we predict what it will do in the future?”, “How can we adapt to it?”.
The evidence for all 3 theories I mentioned is rock solid. Get with the times.
It’s not as simple as saying “the science is settled” and dismissing other valid viewpoints. I for one do not doubt the physics behind increased carbon emissions and the greenhouse effect. I have issues with assigning values of just how much of the current warming is man made and how much within normal cyclical values. For example certain regions (like the tropical pacific) have cooled despite model predictions to the contrary. While the basic science is settled there are still poorly understood feedbacks in a complex system.
Respectfully, Glenn, it really is that simple. There are no other valid viewpoints because they’re dead-ass wrong.
Research has addressed your issues and found them wanting. There are no valid factual objections to anthropogenic climate change that have not been empirically dismissed. Your failure to accept sourcing that clashes with your own confirmation biases is a you problem, not a problem with the evidence.
But that’s okay. Like Jesus, anthropogenic climate change doesn’t need for you to believe in it for it to be real.
🫶🏽✌🏽
Great point! In the same spirit… coming on here every day just to post divisive dumb garbage intended only to troll people like “well, climate change is here because it’s hot today” isn’t necessary either. It works both ways. It’s not constructive to condemn one side while not acknowledging that both sides are showing off their pettiness.
One thousand percent agreement from me. Talking about this kind of stuff online is like playing chess with a pigeon. It doesn’t matter what you do — the pigeon knocks over all the pieces, shits all over the board, and struts around like it’s won.
To borrow a quote from a movie we’ve all seen, “The only winning move is not to play.” So let’s not!
Lee, do you know why the IPCC their forecasts in probabilities? Because they do not know all the feedbacks in a chaotic system. It’s reaffirming to know that you are more certain than the IPCC.
Glenn, do you know that the IPCC explicitly calls out anthropogenic influence as a core component of observable climate change? It’s reaffirming to know that you continue to pigeon your way through this chess game.
Lee, you are clearly passionate about the topic so it may be a good idea to go back and read my position. I never challenged the science behind anthropogenic global warming. What I am skeptical about is the amount of just how much of the current warming is attributed to mans use of fossil fuels and how much is natural variability. Our atmosphere is complex with many poorly understood feedbacks.
As for your comment on Jesus? I am quite sure he existed. However, I am skeptical that he actually walked on water. Just as I am skeptical to some of the alarmism surrounding climate change.
Natural variability still plays a major role in the weather and climate and always will with or without anthropogenic climate change. There are many ways natural variability can manipulate the weather. One of the most basic ways is day and night. The oscillations between El Nino and LA Nina are major players in natural variability as well as the Arctic Oscillation. Volcanic activity, sunspots, and the Milankovitch cycles.
The effects of anthropogenic climate change are more or less throwing a little extra spice on many weather events and making some events more likely to occur. For example, the warming Gulf waters are releasing more water vapor into the air which is adding more fuel to thunderstorms that develop off cold fronts. Given the appropriate upper atmospheric conditions, this extra water vapor can make a storm more severe and dump alot more rain than it normally would without the effects of a warmer Gulf due to the warming from our greenhouse gasses. The extra water vapor rich atmospher can make a storm dump an extra 2 or 3 inches of rain in some cases than it would have naturally. That don’t sound like much, but 2 extra inches of rain can be disastrous especially in a concrete jungle and if creeks or rivers are getting full.
The warmer ocean waters can also make Tropical storms and hurricanes strengthen much quicker given the proper atmospheric ingredients. This is not to say that weather extremes are something new because they are not. The Earth’s atmosphere has always been in a state of imbalance and the laws of physics constantly try to even out that imbalance, and sometimes it leads to chaotic events. But we are adding a few pounds of pressure to that imbalance, which is increasing the likelihood and severity of some inevitable chaotic events unfolding.
The effects of anthropogenic climate change on the weather is similar to the effects steroids have on competitive athletes. It gives them an extra performance boost.
Matt/Eric:
Not the forecast anyone wants to hear, but is there anything behind the winds we’ve experienced in H-town over the last 4 months? I may be more in-tune as a pilot, but the winds have been higher and more sustained over days than I’ve experienced in my 19 years in this country.
I don’t think these winds are particularly abnormal for this time of year.
I love the forecast that is posted everyday direct simple with that I have been in Texas since 1991 ( Houston/area ) and from my take mother nature will change the weather differently everyday. I feel we had have a good spring some good rain ( Just hope we don’t dry up from feast to famine ) temps have been good first two weekends in May that was great but we are in mid May and it was bound to hit. In 1996 from May 20-31st it was 92-93 degrees but May 29th it got to 95 so again my take my wife & I feel no to much out of the realm. Thank you for your forecasts good info for us to act upon in our lives.
Fingers, toes, & eyes crossed for that front next week
thank you, Lee and Eric, for that shot across the bow to our less than civil commenters. The comments are a fun and engaging part of your service and I would hate it to go the way of the Texas tribune-no more comment section. I really appreciate everything. All of you do for us.
Amen. Btw a friend of mine who works in IT for oil companies said the “climate hoax” commenters are often paid by some oil companies to comment that stuff and start trouble, on LinkedIn and other platforms. His job is removing them. I am not trying to demonize oil companies (some of whom actually have clean energy departments now plus the energy infrastructure expertise we all need) or spread false rumors. Just something I was interested to learn from a friend’s personal experience. If my comment starts any trouble I’m happy for it to be removed.
Oh really Bea? Can you tell us the company? If not, why not?
On a positive note. I don’t have to wait very long for hot water when I take my morning shower!
Very true 🤣
Thank you for trying to keep things civil and the FREE work you do for us.
Same
Today Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 96. Heat index values as high as 102. South wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Tonight Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Just wanted to thank you here at SCW for all you do for the Gulf Coast community. I have followed Mr. Berger since his days at the Chronicle and unfortunately, these same sort of negative comments would sometimes come up back then too. Please don’t let the negative comments give you the impression that you aren’t appreciated. You certainly are appreciated.
All my respect for a thankless job,
Scott
The wind makes the heat bearable at least for me.
Closing the comment section would be like punishing the entire class for the sake of one angry kid while positively rewarding that kid at the same time through a negative action (the hoax commenter who started the day before yesterday & just kept going).
It won’t change anything – that person will just move on to another place.
Surely there’s a better way. People connect here, especially during difficult weather. Let’s not lose that.
If you allow trolls/toxicity to grow over time then comments will be straight up disinformation and makes this site look bad. They need to control things and if it takes to close comments than so be it
It shouldn’t take a complete shutdown to deal with comments. That’s too extreme and polarization like that rebounds.
This site helps people, as does the comment section – it airs things out & allows expression.
Like he said, there are Other Ways to deal with it, so that a few hurt-full people don’t destroy it for all.
If all this climate change info is settled science, then can we all just be chill about it in the discourse? We don’t need the constant chiding from both sides here in the comments. I’m sure the vast majority of people come here for the daily weather so we can just get through another day and the constant talk about it gets old for people who just want to know if it’s going to be a good day to work in the garden or if I need to water the lawn this week or if they should bring an umbrella to their kid’s kickball game.
It’s a weather site, that’s what made it soar in the first place, and the comments are typically an amazing cast of characters that brings some brightness to my day and keeps me coming back to the site as many provide their local experience in different parts of the city and surrounding metro area. Unfortunately any site’s comment section will need moderation as the loudest are most often the most abrasive.
Here’s to hoping many more years of weather for the spaceport and some civilized comment sections.
i can haz front was really good. keep em coming!!
I am cool with “climate change” being forbidden from the “name” description in general.
and “hater”….such an awful word. For me, I want to see if the curve keeps rising like it has. A lot of work went into cleaning the air since the 70s. More sunlight gets thru! Shoutout for them boomers!
Do you know what the frightening thing is? I am actually getting used to the heat. I’m sort of like the lobster in the pot who is enjoying the warm water until it starts boiling.
Take this for what it’s worth, amusement or whatever, because you have to. Ventusky is showing the low on Friday night May 23 to be in the upper 50’s. I’m still crossing my fingers, though.
To add to the previous comment, there seems to be a growing consensus with other sources that there could be two or three nights next week with lows at least 65-70°F.
Well, how about this heat?
A/C is already working overtime in mid-May. Gonna be a long slog