The warmth continues, and we’ll have to watch for the possibility of storms on Friday.
Today
We’ll see another day a lot like Wednesday—which is to say a chance of early morning fog and then warm, with highs in the low- to mid-80s. Temperatures will again be near record highs for late March, especially for the southern half of the region. (Houston’s Hobby Airport, for example, has already tied two records this week).
Conditions tonight will be quite warm, perhaps only falling to around 70 degrees for areas closer to the coast. A more noticeable change will come with the winds, which will pick up in response to a potent upper-level system moving into the central plains states, and pushing toward the eastern United States. For Houston, this means winds will increase to about 20mph by Friday morning, with higher gusts.
Friday
We’re continuing to watch for the possibility of severe weather in Houston from the late-morning period through the late afternoon hours. As that upper-level system moves across the plains, it should produce a fairly potent line of storms at the surface. As this line moves from west to east across Texas, its southern boundary could pass through the northern Houston area, bringing the threat of strong thunderstorms and damaging winds, especially for areas around Conroe and points north.
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The question is whether a capping inversion will limit storm activity, or breaks, in which case storms could be a little more widespread. In any case, the system should be fairly progressive, meaning it will continue to move to the east, limiting the duration of storms and their potential for significant rain accumulations.
Saturday and Sunday
Some slight rain chances will linger into Saturday morning, but for the most part conditions this weekend should be partly to mostly sunny. A very weak front should pass through on Friday along with the line of storms, and therefore I’d expect some drier air, although not much cooling. Look for highs this weekend in the low-80s, with overnight lows generally in the low 60s—although some inland areas could see upper 50s on Sunday morning.
Next week should again bring some on-and-off rain chances to Houston, with the potential for heavier rain by Wednesday or Thursday or so. But right now the details are pretty hazy.
Posted at 6:55am CT on Thursday
On another topic. Any sneak peaks on this Hurricane season? Are there any indications of the chance of having early season activity in the Gulf due to abnormally warm SST’s ?
Thank You Mr. Berger.
Hi Patrick. That is a concern I have, and will be writing about the slightly increased possibility of June storms this year due to the warmer SSTs.
Any thoughts as to storm timing on Saturday? Driving to Champions after lunch and should be hitting downtown just in time for rush hour.
Storms will be over by Friday evening I believe.
Meant Friday, but it looks like I will be OK.
Eric how much rain accumulations are we talking about. I am on the west side of Houston. Thanks!
Probably one-half inch or less, I’d guess.
Thanks… I flood so I am always worried when I hear storms or rain!
No worries about that today.
For the Cleveland/Livingston area: Do you think that tornadoes will be likely in this event?
You mentioned a cap possibly limiting the chance of storms tomorrow. I know what a cap is, but I’ve always wondered what causes them to occur. Sometimes they are present and sometimes they aren’t and it seems to be at different times throughout the year. Can you explain?