In brief: Rain chances will dial back, and temperatures will go up this week. But really, for this time of year, the heat could be significantly worse in Houston during the daytime. By the weekend much of the area could drop back into the lower 90s. Also, we discuss the likelihood of increased tropical noise.
Tuesday
There are some scattered showers along the coast this morning, and they should continue to push inland over the next couple of hours before dying out around Interstate 10. Later today mostly sunny skies should prevail across the Houston region, allowing high temperatures to push into the low- to mid-90s. Winds will come from the east at 5 to 10 mph. Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper-70s for most locations.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
There will not be much variability across Houston for the remainder of the week. A stout ridge of high pressure has established itself over the southwestern United States, but our area remains on the edge so we won’t experience the full force of its impact. Essentially, then, for the remainder of the week we are going to see mostly sunny days with high temperatures in the mid-90s, with inland areas possibly at risk of seeing the upper 90s. Humidity will, of course, be rather high. Each day will bring a slight chance of showers along the sea breeze, with higher chances of rain (maybe 30 percent) closer to the coast whereas inland areas see perhaps a 10 percent chance. These are the dog days of summer, and by golly they are going to feel like it. Please note it could be worse, however. Record highs for this time of year in Houston are generally in the 104 to 106-degree range.
Saturday, Sunday, and beyond
High pressure retreats a bit this weekend, and this will have a very subtle effect on our weather. Daily high temperatures will probably go a bit lower, so something like low- to mid-90s for much of Houston. And rain chances may go up slightly this weekend. Skies should still be mostly sunny, but there will be a chance for brief, passing showers on the daily. This overall pattern looks to hold at least into the middle of next week.
Here comes the hurricane hype
As we noted yesterday, the Atlantic tropics are starting to heat up. And the seven-day outlook from the National Hurricane Center (shown above) indicates that. At present there are no threats to the Gulf, but looking at the longer range models there appears to be the potential for another tropical wave (which is still well over Africa, and not reflected in the map above) to move off into the Atlantic and follow a more westerly course over the next two weeks. This might eventually track toward the Gulf, but it’s a long ways off and there are a lot of ifs and maybes.
Nevertheless, you can probably expect to see a lot of noise from social media-rologists about this and other potential threats to the United States over the next two months. But right now, here’s all we can really say for sure: The Atlantic is heating up, and if Texas is going to be threatened by a hurricane, it will almost certainly happen in the next eight weeks. When there are more specific threats to discuss, you can rest assured that we will discuss them.
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Your last paragraph made me literally laugh out loud….. THANKS
I look forward to your morning posts.
“social media-rologists“ is a brilliant term. David schlothauer to name one.
Yeah I see what you mean about the Euro model.
Our very “normal” summer continues. The absence of anomalously high pressure in our trough/ridge pattern has kept daytime highs mostly near normal. Nighttime lows have been a little warmer but in the overall picture of things this summer has been “bearable” compared to some of our recent ones.
And that is a good thing…
We have about 3 weeks left of unbearable heat threat and then we have to somehow get through the peak of hurricane season without any massive drama. Then we can all enjoy the good months in Houston weather.
Guaranteed that “media-rologists” will be a prevalent part of my vocabulary.
Well over Africa, not on the map yet, but could eventually track toward the Gulf, lol
Norcross discussed all the activity out in the Atlantic, specifically those that are identified by NHC.
He did also mention how the Euro models are speculating one that is still on the interior of Africa.
Search for this video title: “Large degree of uncertainty regarding tropical development of area to watch in Atlantic Main Development Region”. It’s at the 24 Hour Weather TV channel (OTA or cable, or online using a browser).
Katy Texas defcon level 3 until further notice.
If biggie spins up east of Brazil, 14 days to Texas. Aug 20.
Brazil is in the southern hemisphere. No hurricane/cyclone/typhoon has ever crossed the equator. Our Atlantic hurricanes come from the Antilles/Caribbean, or home grown in the Gulf.
And there are some that originate out of Africa. 👍
These “social media-rologists” remind me of my kids when we are at a traffic light. They try to guess when the light will turn green and each says “now” about 10 times before it changes and then the one who said it lasts says, “look, I am psychic.” My point being that it’s not a matter of “if” but “when” a major hurricane hits and these clowns on social media will try and take credit for being so smart.
Shhhhh! Don’t tell them about meteorologist Edward Lorenz and the “Butterfly Effect” or we’ll really get some strange hype about hurricanes.
“Modelcanes” noun; Social medias use of the long term tendency of operational model runs to create hurricanes that never materialize in a shameless effort to get likes, clicks and views and generate hoopla and in some cases wealth.
I’m sure there’s a storm with our name out there just waiting to form.
August 5th
Record high: 103 in 2023
Record low: 64 in 1976