In brief: In this morning’s post we discuss the end game for the tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf, look ahead to elevated rain chances on Friday, and then see what high pressure will bring us next week.
Invest 93L
As expected, the tropical disturbance in the northern Gulf of Mexico (aka Hurricane TikTok) is moving steadily westward and nearing the far eastern end of Southeastern Louisiana. The center of the storm continues to hug the coast, which has limited intensification, and thus this system remains poorly organized. The odds of it becoming a tropical depression or storm have been lowered to 30 percent this morning, and even this seems a little generous to me. It should move into Louisiana later today or tonight, bringing a chance of heavy rain to that state. Impacts to Texas will be minimal, although parts of our area will see increased rain chances on Friday as a result of atmospheric moisture related to this system.
Thursday
If you liked the weather on Wednesday you are in luck, because today will be pretty much the same. We may see a few more clouds this afternoon, but high temperatures should still reach the mid-90s for most locations with plenty of humidity. Winds will be light, generally from the south. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the upper 70s.
Friday
As atmospheric moisture levels rise due to the influence of the tropical disturbance, we will see an increase in rain chances on Friday, but how much will depend on how far east you live. If you are east of Interstate 45 I would put the odds of rainfall at about 50 percent or higher, and to the west I’d say considerably less than 50 percent. Overall accumulations likely will be in the 0.5 inch for areas that receive rain, but with the tropical moisture there could be higher bullseyes. It’s notable that the Weather Prediction Center (see below) has lowered the likelihood that any part of the Houston metro area will see excessive rainfall. Highs will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s due to increased cloud cover.
Saturday
Skies will be partly sunny on Saturday, with highs generally in the lower 90s, as atmospheric moisture lingers in the region. Rain chances will be about 30 percent, higher again to the east of our region. Accumulations look slight. Overall if you have outdoor plans I would be cautiously optimistic.
Sunday and next week
High pressure begins to build in by Sunday, and this should set the stage for sunny and hot weather for awhile. Most of next week should bring high temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s, with perhaps a 10 percent chance of afternoon showers driven by the sea breeze. It’s late July. It’s Houston. You have been warned.
Any concerns about Livingston on Friday? My son is at camp there.
Weathernerds shows a clone of the current disturbance near Louisiana in 10 days, like Groundhog Day. Can we disregard because it’s too far out?
2 years ago, we were in a merciless pattern of cloudless days, 110 degree (actual) temperatures, suburban wildfires and trees dying from heat stress.
If this is prime time summer, hey not too shabby. Yes, some of us, including me will have cheese with the whine about the heat but only in jest.
Putting my half a cent in, this has been a pretty darn good summer so far.
Don’t jinx it!!!
I agree though; this summer has been great.
Even compared to last year where we had two major storms by this time of the year.
Chronicle email subject “ Houston faces heavy rainfall, flood risk with Gulf disturbance” hit the in box minutes before Eric’s. I live in a land of confusion! The no hype forecast is a blessing
@Dave … a bit ironic Eric used to be at the Chronicle 🙂
Yup, I thought that HC story was SCW at first and I stared reading and it seemed off. Once I noticed it I immediately came to SCW to get the real scoop!
I love the TikTok hurricane comment! Thank you for the no nonsense weather, the TV drama guys are too much!
I was going to complain about the excessive rain, & having to mow my lawn so frequently, but then I realized the opposite would be dead patches of grass and still having to water it & a higher water bill, so I’m not complaining. This is all fine. Avoiding drought for much of the first half of the summer in Houston is pretty big. I remember the summer of 2023 (I think, right?) when everything was burned to a crisp all summer long.
Similarly, Matt’s post made me happy my kids are not on tik tok. They play a lot of Roblox, but after I implemented a policy that “You can’t talk to me about Roblox until you tell me one Non-Roblox fact about your day” the risk of me having to hear about Roblox dropped way off.
Counting my blessings here and not complaining about the weather.
I like the visuals on the Ventusky iPhone app. Thanks Aggie! Shows a nice swirl SE of Bay St Louis. The Friday 1AM projection is SE of Lake Charles well offshore. A lot of rain if it keeps heading west and comes into Houston. We’ll see. Yaaay!
PS Aggies notes on weather were the only useful information from that 65 comment gobbler yesterday
@DJ …
Sometimes we fire up Ventuski website on our 65 inch Frame TV (Samsung). You get some cool visuals on a big screen. We like Ventuski, because of its visuals and configurability.
And thanks on the “weather comment” … admittedly, I do have a tendency to get a bit wordy – a key principle of journalism is “assume the reader may not be familiar with the subject”. I’ll stop here, before I get wordy 🤦
Late July Warning received. August usually is “DEFCON 1” on the “hot, humid misery scale.”
Love the reference to “Hurricane Tic Toc!
July 17th
Record high: 104 in 1980
Record low: 67 in 1974
Your Hurricane TikTok made me laugh! Kinda sad how much influence people who don’t know anything have.
I’m dying at the “Hurricane TikTok” reference! I love getting my weather with a sense of humor on the side.
It’s a secret plot by the CCP to panic the populace. LOL..TikTok the land where complete fiction gets a million views and goes viral before the Truth get’s out of bed in the Morning.
Ughust is here .
30%? I am not the National Weather Service, not a meteorologist, not a climatologist, but I put the odds at 5% or less!