In brief: Houston will see pleasant weather through Saturday before humidity surges back with a breeze on Sunday. A narrow line of thunderstorms accompanies a cold front on Monday, but the truly cool to cold air will lag behind by a day or so, arriving Tuesday night. By Wednesday, we may limp into the mid-60s for highs. It will feel like autumn.
Just a quick reminder to folks that our fundraiser kicked off yesterday! We are grateful for whatever support you are able and willing to provide, and thank you to those that pitched in on day one! I have to admit that astronaut t-shirt is <chef’s kiss>. Thank you so much again!
Today
It has not been as cool as it was yesterday morning and this morning in three or four weeks. Whatever the case, temperatures are generally in the 50s this morning once more.
We’ll see highs punch up into the mid-70s this afternoon. A light jacket should do this morning if that’s your thing. Overall, today looks wonderful.
Friday and Saturday
Tonight should be even a bit cooler than we’re seeing this morning. Look for lows down to near 50 degrees in Houston which means 40s in many suburbs and outlying areas. Highs will poke into the mid-70s again tomorrow, followed by mid-50s for lows and upper-70s for highs on Saturday. Both days look mainly sunny.
Sunday
Humidity will slowly return on Saturday, but you won’t really notice it until Sunday. You will also notice the wind on Sunday. Onshore winds pick up, gusting at times to 25 mph or so, perhaps even a little stronger over the water. Morning lows Sunday will start off in the 60s to near 70, warming up into the 80s for highs.
Monday through Wednesday
The forecast gets a little trickier next week, particularly trying to time everything out. A cool front is going to likely crash through the area Monday. It’s still too soon to say what it will bring, but the model signals seem to be hinting at a broken line of thunderstorms or a very narrow line of heavy showers and gusty winds. I wouldn’t entirely rule out some severe weather Monday, but it’s not the most likely outcome right now. We’ll keep an eye on things.
In terms of temperatures, it gets a little wonkier. The coldest air will lag the front by a day or two. So with the front crossing Monday, look for lows back into the 60s Monday night. Tuesday will be warm, and it should be a bit less humid. High temperatures will be well into the 70s to near 80 degrees. Then on Tuesday night, our first dose of colder air arrives, knocking us back into the mid-50s. And on Wednesday, even with oodles of sunshine, we will probably only do mid-60s at best. We’ll likely follow that with 40s Wednesday night and some wind to make it feel even colder. We may do 60s and 40s for a few days in a row, so it will feel more fall-like about a week before Thanksgiving.
Tropics
There remain no concerns from Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 (likely Sara later today) for Texas. Fronts will keep us safe. But PTC 19 is going to deliver some pretty rough weather to Central America, particularly in coastal Honduras, where upwards of 20 inches of rain is possible.
If you have trips planned or family back in these areas, keep an eye on Sara once it forms. There will likely be serious flooding in portions of Honduras, and if the storm wobbles offshore longer, they could also be dealing with a hurricane down there. Eventually this turns north toward the Yucatan, probably late in the weekend. It will then get caught up in the big cold front next week and kicked toward Florida. If there is good news, the odds of a major hurricane striking Florida are quite low now. Look for more at our companion site, The Eyewall in a bit.
Thank you guys for everything you do. I ordered an umbrella and made a donation. You guys are the best.
I hope we are not back to the 80’s for Thanksgiving (classis Houston weather).
Just to point out how much our weather can vary here. In 2019 we had our first freeze on November 13th. We also had a 3 day streak with highs only on the 40s between the 12th and 14th. Sometimes we can get January in November.
We also went from extremely warm days and nights for 3 days on November 6-8, 2018 to freezing on November 13-16, recording our first snow flurries before Boston did!
Yeah I remember that as well. It sleeted where I live but it didn’t snow. We also had a long stretch of winter like cold in November of 2013 and 2014.
when are we having out first freeze?
Our average first freeze is December 7th, but it can occur much earlier or later than that date. It doesn’t look like there is a chance for a freeze anytime in the 10-15 day forcast unless it gets colder next week than they are currently predicting. Beyond that there is no reliable way to know what the weather is going to do here past 15 days out.
Historically, we see our first freeze at some point in December most years but there have been a few winters throughout history where we never recorded a freeze here along the coastal counties.
What is the meteorological explanation for why some cold fronts bring an immediate blast of cold air whereas with some the cold air arrives later such as next week?
Two different features. The one with a little rain is originating from Pacific Baja. The next 2 days later is a trough originating from Pacific NW no rain. The jet is quite “wavy” now so your weather is going to rock and roll. New term: “warministas”, will hide away for an awhile. Gonna be brrr cold. Not nice.
It depends on several factors, such as the strength of the front, the origin, and how fast it moves through the area. Sometimes, if a cold front slows down on its arrival in Texas, this will give that cold Canadian air more time to moderate near the frontal boundary as it enters the southern latitudes, especially if it’s dry with clear, sunny skies behind the front. Those really strong fronts that bring sudden temperature drops are usually moving really fast as they dive into the southern U.S. and don’t have nearly as much time to moderate as they drop into Texas. They are also called Blue Northers and usually contain deep Canadian and Arctic air behind them.
Another important factor that comes into play is clouds and precipitation. If the weather associated with an incoming cold front has clouds, cold rain, and snow north of here, it will likely bring a much quicker temperature drop than if it’s clear and sunny behind the front, like the one coming next week.
Finally Fall Day has arrived. A little over five weeks from Astronomical Winter.