Houston will be hot and sunny into the holiday weekend before our pattern turns more unsettled

In brief: Houston’s weather will be mostly hot and sunny through Sunday. However, by Memorial Day our pattern should start to turn a little bit more unsettled, leading to cooler days with better rain chances for most of next week.

High School graduation weather

Many, but certainly not all, area high schools will hold their graduation ceremonies this weekend, when we have few weather concerns aside from the warm temperatures. Among the graduations will be an outdoor event for my youngest daughter, Lily. Both of our children have been enrolled in Clear Creek Independent School District for the better part of two decades, and it is bittersweet to contemplate the end of their school days. By and large their experience has been wonderful, with several great teachers along the way to provide wisdom, and love, and inspiration.

Amanda and I are grateful for our daughters’ public school education, and all the teachers and janitors and bus drivers and clerks and administrators who work so hard to help bring our children up. You strengthen our community immeasurably. And to all the graduates I would say that the world is kind of a mess, and we could use your help to build a brighter future. Best wishes, and the greatest of luck to you all.

Thursday

In contrast to Wednesday morning, it is muggy outside this morning, with temperatures having fallen only into the mid- to upper-70s across the region. Skies will gradually turn sunny today, and this will allow high temperatures to reach up into the mid-90s. Winds will generally be light, from the east. There is a very slight chance of some showers near the coast this afternoon, but the overall odds are probably on the order of 10 percent. Expect another muggy night.

Friday

This will be another hot and mostly sunny day, with temperatures in the mid-90s again. Winds will again be fairly light, generally from the southeast.

Saturday

The first part of Memorial Day Weekend will bring more of the same, albeit with some subtle changes. One is that highs may be a degree or two cooler. The other is that southeasterly winds should be a little more pronounced, perhaps gusting up to 20 mph or higher. Nights remain warm and muggy.

Sunday

This will be another mostly sunny day, with highs likely in the lower 90s. By Sunday afternoon or evening there will be a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms as the atmosphere turns a bit more disturbed, but I would not put the odds of seeing precipitation at higher than 10 percent. It will be another gusty day, with winds from the southeast possibly reaching 25 mph or so.

Memorial Day and beyond

A more unsettled pattern looms for next week, likely beginning on Memorial Day. Overall we will see increased cloud cover, higher rain chances, and cooler temperatures for much if not all of next week. I’m hopeful that most of the area will pick up between 0.5 and 2 inches of rainfall, which most of the region needs after a dry May. Daytime highs will likely vary between the mid-80s and lower-90s depending on the extent and timing of rainfall. Nighttime temperatures will be a bit lower as well, dropping into the lower 70s later in the week. If we’re lucky, this late spring-time weather will get our soils get ready for the depths of summer, which lie just around the corner.