In brief: In today’s post we’re celebrating like it’s the 80s all over again, because that’s how February is going to end. In fact, with three days to go, this month already has had the third-warmest days on record in Houston. A weak front will bring somewhat drier air into Houston for the weekend.
Frying in February
On average, February is the third coolest month of the year in Houston. Put another way, of the winter months, it is the warmest; but still significantly cooler than the rest of the year. The normal high temperature for the month, based upon temperatures from 1990 to 2020, is 67.9 degrees. This year, our average high temperature with three days to go is 74.2 degrees. (Only 1962 at 74.4 degrees, and 2017 at 76.8 degrees rank higher).
It’s not just been Houston. Persistent high pressure for much of this month has kept the entire state of Texas and our neighbors much warmer than average (see map above). Highs in the Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma have been especially hot, relative to normal temperatures this time of year. As we’ll report below, the heat party we’ve been dancing to this month will turn into a rave today as high temperatures soar as much as 20 degrees above normal. In fact we probably will end February with four straight days of highs of 80 degrees or above.
Thursday
Our winds have settled down some this morning, but they’re still a bit blowy from the southwest. We could see gusts up to 20 mph, but that will feel like nothing after widespread gusts of 40 mph on Wednesday. Because skies will be a little more cloudy today, I think that may shave 1 or 2 degrees off our previously forecast highs, and that could keep most of our locations at or below record high temperatures this afternoon. It’s still going to be warm, however, with highs in the low- to mid-80s for most locations except for the immediate coast. A weak front will arrive late tonight, but not in enough time to do much with lows, so expect them in the range of 65 degrees for most locations.
Friday
This will be a sunny day, and lower dewpoints should allow temperatures to push into the low- to mid-80s again. However, with the drier air it should feel somewhat less humid (the further inland you are, the less humid it will be), and low temperatures on Friday night should drop down to around 60 degrees. Note this is still pretty warm for this time of year, as the front just is not going to bring all that much oomph along with it in terms of colder air.
Saturday and Sunday
These should be partly to mostly sunny days, with high temperatures around 80 degrees. Yes, there will be some humidity, but no, it will be very far from oppressive by Houston standards. Saturday night should see temperatures drop down to near 60 degrees again, but Sunday night will be warmer. Saturday’s winds look moderate, but by Sunday afternoon we might see some southerly gusts up to around 20 mph.
Next week
Not much changes through at least the middle of next week. We’re going to see partly sunny days with highs in the vicinity of 80 degrees, and lows in the lower- to mid-60s. Some slight rain chances may return by the middle of the week, but we may have to wait until the weekend for a real uptick in the precipitation outlook. But this is far enough into the future that our forecast turns pretty fuzzy, pretty quickly.
I hope everyone has a terrific Thursday!
