In brief: In today’s post we discuss record heat in November, with a couple of days this week likely breaking high temperature marks. Houston is also going to finally see some meaningful rainfall this week, likely beginning on Thursday, ahead of a front.
Heat and drought
Let’s start with record setting daytime warmth for Houston. Monday through Thursday of this week are going to bring high temperatures in the mid- (and for some locations) upper-80s. Here are the city’s current record highs for these days, along with forecast highs in parentheses.
- Nov. 17: 86 degrees (85)
- Nov. 18: 84 degrees (87)
- Nov. 19: 85 degrees (86)
- Nov. 20: 84 degrees (85)
The record warmth is coming as the Houston region continues to advance toward a severe drought. According to the latest data from NOAA, through mid-November the region has received only about 10 to 50 percent of normal rainfall during the last two months. Much of the region has received almost no rainfall during the month of November. It’s very dry outside.
During the last 60 days most of the Houston region has received 10 to 50 percent of normal precipitation.
With all of that said, cooler temperatures and more rainfall are finally in the forecast. Rains will arrive by Wednesday or Thursday of this week, and we should begin to cool down some by this weekend. Longer term, by around Thanksgiving or shortly thereafter, we could see significantly colder weather.
2025 fundraiser update
Before getting into this week’s forecast, I wanted to thank everyone who has donated to our annual fundraiser so far. We have had a tremendous start, and are about 40 percent toward our goal to support the website and app during the coming year. For more information on how to donate, or buy merchandise, please visit this page.
Monday and Tuesday
These days will be uncharacteristically sticky for mid-November. The first two days of this week will more or less see a continuation of the warm and humid weather the region experienced this weekend. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid-80s for much of the city, with inland locations pushing into the upper 80s. Skies will be partly sunny. With dewpoints in the vicinity of 70 degrees it will be very sticky outside. Additionally, as overnight lows only fall to around 70 degrees, we probably will see some patchy fog develop. Winds will be light in the morning, but increasing to 10 to 15 mph during the afternoons.
Wednesday
We’ll see more clouds on Wednesday, and this should cap high temperatures in the mid-80s. We’ll also see a slight chance of rain, but I would only put the likelihood in the ballpark of 10 to 20 percent. Nighttime temperatures remain warm and muggy.
Thursday and Friday
Rain chances will increase to 50 percent, or higher, on Thursday as a series of disturbances begin to pass overhead. Highs Thursday will depend on the extent of rainfall, but I expect most of the area to reach the low- to mid-80s. This somewhat rainy pattern will continue into Friday. At some point, and I confess the timing is not yet clear, a front is going to push through the area. This probably will be on Friday at some point, and bring with it a line of showers and thunderstorms. Overall conditions with the front don’t appear to favor anything too severe, but we’ll be keeping an eye on things. Highs should be in the vicinity of 80 degrees on Friday, depending on the timing of the front.
Saturday and Sunday
Our weather this weekend will depend on the strength of the front, and there remains some question on just how much cooler and drier air will reach Houston. I think there will be a decent amount, but we shall see. For now let’s go with highs in the 70s and lows on Saturday and Sunday night in the 50s, with lower humidity. I also think both days will continue to see a decent chance of rain showers, but again this will depend on where and when the front stalls. So the bottom line is that our forecast for this weekend is uncertain: could be mildly warm and rainier, or a little cooler with less rainfall. Stay tuned. In terms of rainfall accumulations I expect most of the region to pick up 1 to 4 inches through Sunday.
Next week
Our somewhat cooler and less humid weather should persist through the middle of next week. By around next Thursday—yes, Thanksgiving Day—there are hints in some of our models of a stronger front arriving. It’s far too early to say whether this colder air will arrive by Thanksgiving, or a day or two later. However, if you’ve been pining for some colder nights. It does look like we could be about 10 days away from this.
