In brief: More of the same is expected over the next few days in Houston, with cool-ish mornings and very warm afternoons, along with a good bit of sunshine. The weather pattern changes for a time next week toward humid with rain chances. Then, perhaps we can await our next front.
About 800 miles separate the two portions of Texas that have done well in the rain department this month: The mouth of the Rio Grande and the tippy top of the Panhandle. New Mexico has outperformed Texas, even with some serious flash flooding there recently.
But in general, we are far from alone right now in this dry pattern. The next couple weeks will bring us more of the same but also some potential for change, particularly next week. I think looking at the European ensemble for low temperatures the next two weeks shows how the pattern splits into 3 differing acts of weather.
Act I: The stable period through Sunday
Over the next several days, things will be pretty calm. We can expect daytime highs in the upper-80s, just a couple degrees shy of daily records. But if you want some autumn flavor, the mornings will remain fairly cool, in the 60s. These temperatures are still solidly at least 8 to 10 degrees warmer than usual. Rain chances will remain nil. We will get a weak reinforcing shot of drier air Friday that should extend this weather through at least Sunday and possibly Monday.
Act II: Revenge of humidity and rain chances
Next week sees a change. We’ll have both more unsettled weather and increasing rain chances, as well as much more humidity. Overnight lows will likely shift into the low-70s, about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than normal, while daytime highs will hold steady or even fall a few degrees due to clouds and rain chances.
I think we want to be realistic about rain chances next week. In a drought, sometimes you find ways to fail, and while I would still expect at least an inch or so of rainfall from scattered thunderstorms next week, the heavier rains, the 2 to 4 or 5 inch totals will probably be confined to a narrow corridor somewhere in the area along or northwest of highway 59. Something we will continue to watch. The European operational model shows this well below as a possible example of what could occur.
Regardless, we will see just a warm, humid, un-autumn-like week next week.
What this means for Halloween remains partially unclear. There will almost certainly be a chance of rain, but it will almost certainly also be warm. So plan for warm right now, but check back with us on the rain chances which may not become clear until early next week.
Act III: Additional autumn?
After next week’s pattern shift, we could see a return to something more typical for autumn. I would say there’s probably a 40 to 50 percent chance of a meaningful cold front around next weekend. The exact timing is uncertain, but there’s enough signal in the models for us to think there’s a decent chance. We’ll keep watching.
Ok, so the only certain thing is that we are flirting with daily hot records and no rain the next few days. The rest of your forecast is fuzzy. Got it.
I prefer this type of writing vs the long drawn out fuzziness. Short and simple.
Ugh. Is this going to be another one of those mid-80s and humid Thanksgivings and Christmases?
In my, admittedly, short 13 years here, both of those have been warm and humid more often than not. Miserable for the holidays.
this is Houston…
Most likely
“Revenge of humidity” is not something that I ever want to hear, but if that’s what it takes to get some rain, so be it.
More humidity at the end of October? Fantastic! 🫠🥴
On the bright side it’ll be nice for this weekends Wings Over Houston Airshow 🙂
I dont care about cold, when is it going to rain? And why isnt it raining?
Please define your description(s) of your weather projection models. Example: “European Model”. It may be great to opine about your references, but to us unweathermen it’s all Greek & Pig Latin
Thanks