In brief: The initial release of ChatGPT in November 2022 sparked a widespread recognition of the promise and peril of artificial intelligence. We’ve been watching these developments closely, both in the broader public context as well as in weather modeling. For the sake of transparency, here’s how we plan to use AI now and in the future.
As artificial intelligence plays an increasingly prominent role in society, I want to clarify what this means for Space City Weather now, and in the future. The central message I wish to convey is that Space City is, and always will be the creative product of human beings. What is written and forecast here is done by people. At the same time, Matt and I are not burying our heads in the sand. As technology changes, we embrace that which improves our ability to forecast the weather and communicate that information.
For example, I started in newspaper journalism more than 25 years ago. At the beginning of my career, printed newspapers still largely set the news agenda. But in 2005, while still at the Houston Chronicle, I started blogging. With the arrival of hurricanes Katrina and Rita that summer, I soon realized the power of immediate communication on the Internet, the value of sharing links to credible information, and the hunger of people for this change. In the two decades since, I have made the majority of my living writing for online publications, without a paywall. This is one reason why I am so committed to keeping Space City Weather free and open to all. We started as a web site, grew on social media, and now many of you are reading this on an app. I cannot foresee where things will be in 10 years, but wherever people want to read Space City Weather, we will be there.
The rise of AI and weather
Artificial intelligence has been lumbering along in the background for several years, but it has really broken through recently with large language models such as ChatGPT. These artificial intelligence systems can be quite good at some tasks. One of these turns out to be forecasting the weather. There are repositories of meteorological data that go back more than 50 years that can be used to ‘train’ designated models for weather prediction. There are now about 10 major groups out there developing AI-based models, and some of them have gotten quite good. Further improvements are likely.
Traditional weather models, which are based on complex physical equations, attempt to simulate the atmosphere and crunch through those equations to predict what will happen next. These physics-based models have gotten steadily better over the years, especially because of more powerful supercomputers and sophisticated tools to ingest more real-world weather conditions (i.e. the temperature at 10,000 feet above the surface of the Atlantic Ocean) into the model before it is run. AI-based models perform none of these physical computations. They can, therefore, be run incredibly quickly, on fairly simple computers.
How we will use AI
Matt and I have been following the output of AI-based weather models for more than a year now, and they definitely have their strengths. Such models are quite good at three- and five-day forecasts to the point where they sometimes outperform physics-based models at tasks such as hurricane tracks. They also have their weaknesses. For example, AI-based models are not (yet) good at high-resolution modeling and predicting the development of thunderstorms. So no, we still won’t be able to tell you whether it’s going to rain at your house at 3 pm on some days.
The bottom line is that we are using AI-based modeling tools as a part of our forecasts here at Space City Weather. They’re not a panacea, but they are another tool in our arsenal that runs the gamut from hand-drawn isobar maps to sophisticated models on supercomputers. I suspect they will be an even more useful tool over the next five years. But that is where our use of artificial intelligence will end. We have not, nor will we use any AI-based service for the writing of our forecasts. Very occasionally we may use an AI-based illustration, but if we do it will be clearly labeled as such.
We want you to know that at Space City Weather our commitment is to show up every day and make each forecast with our best effort, without influence or intervention from anyone else. We don’t win them all. Humans are fallible. But you can rest assured that they are honest mistakes rather than AI-induced hallucinations.
— Eric Berger, January 2025
Awesome……thanks for the transparency and the daily work that you do.
Whatever you guys are using… is a far cry better than any other Weather Format or reporting agency. I trust you guys will filter thru the data & extrapolate the very best forecasts – which I depend on every day! Thank you!
Thank y’all for the transparency and the heart and soul behind your work.
You guys are truly the best in all ways. We appreciate your great work. Thank you!
Just don’t use AI to make a video of cats parodying a KISS song and I’ll be happy.
I so appreciate this full and open explanation. I also appreciate everything about your mission, and hope you continue well into the future. Thank you!
Thank you for this clarification – I love what both of you are doing and I love your transparency in everything you do. Thank you!
I appreciate your honesty and clarity of the weather and the AI implications.
I was wondering – are there any studies easily available that show the differences between the physics models and the AI models? Like a comparison of temperature range and precip?
thank
Thank you for letting us know about Space City Weather related to AI. I have come to trust your information and check it every morning. Thank you both for your work in keeping us informed
Excellent! Use tools that work. Discard those that don’t.
Thanks for this article that explains SCW’s use of AI. By all means use whatever tools are most appropriate and tailored for the task at hand. As for predicting if it is going to rain on any given patch of Texas at any given time – good luck with that. Once it was drizzling in my backyard but the way the winds were, it was not drizzling in the front yard. No matter what rain prediction was made, some would complain. SCW gives me what I need to know: a reliable forecast devoid of sensationalism. I appreciate all the work that SCW does.
I see what you did there…
Oof, I hope you’ll reconsider using AI-created images. At the current moment, they’re only possible because of the unauthorized use of copyrighted property. My name is on the leaked list of artists that midjourney specifically optimized queries to imitate. It’s not a faceless crime, our property is taken without consent, and used to create a for-profit product that could then be used in our own marketplace to compete with us.
I am afraid the development and use of AI is going to be the proverbial thin end of the wedge. There used to be a saying about monkeys on a typewriter eventually could write all the works of Shakespeare, well, with AI, that time is on the horizon. One can imagine all the works of literature that have ever been written being absorbed by AI, and writings of prose and poetry that AI can produce so brilliantly will mirror the works of every great literature figure that ever lived, and the human brain would not know the difference.
For example: Witness the banal writings of TV drama, why use an expensive writer for such dribble when AI can do the job faster and for not much money at all.
Humans are becoming obsolete and no more so than intellectual output.
AI needs very careful scrutiny before being casually unleashed.
hahahaha.
Thank you for your comments on AI and forecasting, Eric. I agree with you and Matt, and I appreciate the position that you both have taken.
You all have a fantastic approach..
Very much appreciate your transparency and integrity!
In so far as is humanly possible, I would much rather base any and all of my actions on human developed information. It would be like riding on a slippery slope otherwise. AI is going to be the pest that envelops and infests and which we will all learn to hate.
Thank you Matt & Eric. Clear, concise, and coherent position – just like your forecasts. Y’all are the reason I’m here and on the Eyewall.
Thank you. AI is a benefit we don’t yet realize we need nor how much we will be using it in the near future. I remember people criticizing those who used the cell phone in ’95 now they too can’t live without it.
Very well written. Demonstrates your dedication to your project, and to your viewers. Inspires my thoughts on a composition to my own customers. Thanks for all your work.
You’d be fools not to use every tool possible for your awesome weather forecasts… and we all know you’re not fools.
Keep doing what you do best.
I didn’t think I could love you more, Eric. Until you wrote this.
Do let us know if any AI predictions include “evacuate Katy.” 😉
Hopefully, this is brief. We have a very unique home life and technical opinions.
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Husband: 30+ years as a software engineer, and published author of four technical books.
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Wife: 20+ years in the software industry, the last 10 as a software manager of a top software company.
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Husband, part 2: we worked at same company, her as the manager of my projects. Boss at work and home 😁
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We are in complete agreement (both retired now) … AI isn’t a meaningful thing yet. It’s in its infancy stages and not trustworthy.
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While ChatGPT (stop looking at it) is considered a popular choice, other AI tools like Copilot, Perplexity, and Claude might be better suited for specific tasks depending on the requirements. Nothing is engrained.
I have no problems with the use of new data analysis tools, but don’t call them “AI”, there is no “Artificial Intelligence “, these are machine learning data pattern analysis tools. Most of the concepts and statistical analysis methods has been around for decades, it’s just now they can be performed on massively more data points in a much smaller amount of time.
You should just call them “Magic”
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.”
– Arthur C. Clarke
Dear Eric & Matt,
Thanks so much for your dedication providing the very detailed weather forecast every day! It’s been really helpful. Kudos to you!!!
Thanks for the transparency guys. I think you’re taking a reasonable approach.
Sam Altman says that this year will mark the emergence of “AGI,” a level of artificial intelligence that “matches or surpasses human cognitive abilities in most areas.” It will be interesting to see if specialized AI can use the data currently available to human meteorologists and outperform humans in weather forecasting.
On a tangential note: AI is destroying education. But then, if humans are doomed to subservience to AI in complex intellectual tasks, it’s difficult so see the point of an advanced education anymore. Perhaps we humans will only be left with the physical tasks that computers can’t do (until robotics advances further).
You cannot take anything Sam Altman says at face value, his entire mission is raising investment for OpenAI, and he makes whatever fantastic claims he can in order to do so. In terms of generating hype without substance, his company takes the exact opposite approach to Space City Weather.
I wish nothing but the worst for ChatGPT.
Always first class!
And, letting us look behind the curtain!
Thank you thank you thank you
Thank you two for a good honest forecast using the human brain!!! I understand that AI will play more in the game as it improves. Thanks for letting us know when you post AI info. We truly enjoy and trust your forecasts.