In brief: After a long dry spell Houston has finally undergone a pattern change, and we’re now in a period in which there will be a healthy chance of rain for at least the next five or six days. For today, our latest modeling suggests that rainfall will wind down late this afternoon, but there’s a risk of scattered showers at sunset for some locations north of Interstate 10. A weak front next week should bring drier air to the region.
A few housekeeping notes
First of all, if you missed our monthly Q&A we published on Wednesday, be sure and check it out. Dwight Silverman collects questions and every month Matt and I dig into the mailbag and respond to your weather-related queries. Heck, I’d even take space questions if you’ve got them, and I’m sure Matt would love nothing more than to write long encomiums about Rutgers basketball if readers so desire. Which I’m sure you don’t. Because how could you?
I also want to thank everyone who came to the first-ever Space Happy Hour last night at Space Center Houston. It was great to meet so many fans of the site. As a quick reminder, we did not hold a “Fall Day” celebration this year because we’re going to hold a bigger event next year to mark the onset of fall and also the 10th anniversary (!) of the founding of Space City Weather.
If you’re wondering why this post is late this morning, it’s because I’m torturing—I mean training—for the Houston marathon again this year and I had to knock out 12 miles. Let me tell you, running that in 100 percent humidity really, really sucks. Why didn’t I wait for cooler weather this weekend? Because there is no cooler or drier weather coming this weekend. Finally, we’re going to post our winter outlook next Monday, so be on the lookout. We are going to have a winter in Houston this year, right? RIGHT?!?
Thursday
Happy Halloween! I hope your kids aren’t wearing tight-fitting plastic costumes this evening, because those little guys and gals are going to be heading out into some pretty thick humidity. The question is, will it be raining at around sunset?
As of about 7:30 am there’s a fairly robust line of showers to the west and southwest of Houston, and I expect those to move generally eastward today. Throughout the day most of the region should at least see some intermittent showers, with parts of the area likely seeing brief downpours. When it’s not raining we’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine, with high temperatures likely in the low- to mid-80s.
By late this afternoon and early evening, shower activity should be winding down. However there could be some remnant boundaries, along which there will be the potential for some additional showers and thunderstorms between 6 pm and 10 pm. I expect this activity to be fairly scattered, and located north of Interstate 10. So it’s something to be aware of this evening before heading too far from home. No candy is worth tempting fate with lightning.
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday
We’ll see partly sunny skies and highs in the low- to mid-80s through the weekend. Each day will likely bring intermittent light to moderate showers, possibly with a few thunderstorms. We don’t expect any washouts, but our overall wetter pattern should persist. So have an umbrella handy and a contingency for any outdoor plans if a shower pops up overhead. For the most part, I expect these showers to pass fairly quickly. Nights remain warm and humid, generally in the mid-70s.
Next week
Oh my friends, I wish I could offer you a clear-cut forecast for next week. But as of yet, such a thing does not exist. Generally speaking, I expect a fair bit of rain on Monday evening and Tuesday of next week, ahead of a front. There’s the potential for areas to pick up 1 to 2 inches with this system, which will do some nice work on the drought if it develops. Then a weak front probably moves through on Tuesday night or Wednesday, bringing some drier air and cooler temperatures. For now my expectations are that we might see some lows down around 60 degrees, but that could go higher or possibly lower. There’s a decent chance we get a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air by next weekend, but I certainly would not count on that. Not at all.
Eric! I’m proud of you for getting out there and knocking out your 12 miles!!! I guess you got out there before the storms came rolling in, they preempted my morning run. I’ll run in rain but prefer not to run in lightning!
I got caught up in some light to moderate showers, but no lighting. I would have gotten out of that. Waterlogged shoes just added to the fun this morning!
Got 3/8″ of actual RAIN yesterday afternoon, plus got drizzled on during this morning’s walk. Hoping for more after I get home this afternoon – I can just imagine how much oil is going to be lifted from the freeways after our next good rain.
Okay, let’s hear about Rutgers basketball
No respect this year. Top 25 team. Bank it.
Here at my house in Sienna, we got 0,73″ yesterday; most of it at 7:00 pm. This morning, we only got 0,01″. Lots of noise, but no good rain. But, I will take it. and my water bill will appreciate it too!
Will have to seriously rethink the gorilla costume this Halloween.
Yes, that would not be recommended …
This is the Houston weather I know. Where u been lil buddy, i started to worry.
Read you every day. Don’s tree ferns have been waiting for you to declare rain for a long time.
Thank you! Believe me, I’ve been waiting to write “it’s gonna rain” for long time as well.
I’ll look forward to seeing your post about our winter but I’m going to bet we don’t really get one this year. I stopped buying new sweaters because why? I’m a native Houstonian and hate our weather!
people have sweaters? I only see hoodies as far as the eye can see!
I much prefer the weather we had on Halloween last year.
The only of note during winter here is a polar vortex stretch with a front. Unforgettable. The SCW boys are well ahead of those by a week or more. So you know when to wrap and drip. The rest of “winter” is, let’s hope, alternating 40s with warm rain and the hot weather flora sticks around.
After yesterday and today, this October will probably be considered normal in the rain dept with our records. Unless u lived it, the dry weather will long be forgotten.
Absolutely not. Especially for all the places that the rain SKIPPED OVER😭!
Over 5 1/2 inches near Pecan Grove. Pool is up, creek is over the creek paths, rain gauge almost full
Huh! Just a quarter of an inch near Westchase. It’s not fair!
See what happens when you don’t have the Fall Day celebration? We get a record hot October. Your readers demand an apology. : )
Any updates on the tropical disturbance in the Caribbeans?
It’s NOT a tropical disturbance (yet).
Check NHC website and tap “7 day outlook”.
To quote:
Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or two. Gradual
development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system drifts generally northward or northwestward over the central or western
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are
possible during the next several days across portions of the area from Nicaragua southeastward and eastward to northern Colombia.
* Formation chance through 48 hours …low …10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days …medium …60 percent
And visit the sister site: TheEyewall. (com)
This on CNN just now:
“November looks to be the start of a much wetter period for the US.
Outside of the West Coast, nearly the entire Lower 48 is likely to have wetter than normal conditions in early November, according to the Climate Prediction Center’s latest forecast. “
Jos is much better on this stuff than me but the jet forecast seems to have picked up a more pronounced wave across NA that may portend more weather coming to this latitude.
Checking radar now … appears most rainfall is south of i-10. We’ve had zero up in Magnolia all day – friends say nothing in northeast Cypress area either.
We’ve had zero rain today in Greenway Plaza. And it was supposed to be 100% at some point this afternoon. Was there a lot of rain in other parts of Houston?
Every Halloween I do public outreach with my scope. I’ve gotten up to 100 visitors peering through my eyepiece at Saturn and Jupiter in the past. I’m just south of the Woodlands, in Spring. Looking at NWS radar, do ya’ll think we’ll have enough of a clearing from here on, or will another round come to us as predicted at 7pm?
I’m beginning to suspect that mentioning a cold front is what keeps the cold front away. Let’s all just assume it will be in the 80s and 90s with 1000000% humidity from now until eternity so we can stop being disappointed.
You guys are great, thanks for all you do.
Fall will never arrive. The days are already 11 hours long and under and the temperatures have hardly changed since early August. The days will only get 40 minutes shorter. Since day length no longer matters for temperatures, it will be August in December this year!! Stop forecasting cold fronts!! You’re always wrong!!!
Once again, the majority of the heavier rain made it up the coast and off the Gulf straight toward Beaumont and Lake Charles. I don’t know how many times this year I’ve seen that happen.
I know!! But they do have like 20 more inches of annual rainfall than west Houston where I live.