This is bad for business, but as usual we’re going to be honest with you here. For the next few days, at least, you really do not need to check the daily forecast here at Space City Weather. We are in a persistent pattern of high-pressure dominated weather that will last for at least the next week, and quite possibly longer. This high anchored over the southwestern United States, is not going anywhere, any time soon.
The conditions that we’re going to experience through the middle of July are not atypical, per se, for this month. It is summer in Houston. It is hot. But the heat is going to be tenacious, with daily temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above normal, and without any let up. Every day is going to see high temperatures in the upper 90s to 100 degrees. Lows will barely fall to 80 degrees. And while there is a very slight rain chance this afternoon, overall chances will be 10 percent or less on most days. The entire metro area is under a heat advisory and will remain so for the foreseeable future.
Tuesday
Skies will be mostly sunny with high temperatures near or reaching 100 degrees for most of the region away from the coast. Winds will be light, at 5 to 10 mph from the southwest. There is perhaps a 10 or 20 percent chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but most areas will not see anything resembling rainfall. Lows tonight will be around 80 degrees in Houston.
Wednesday
A similar day, albeit with even lower rain chances. Look for highs in the upper 90s.
Thursday until ???
From Thursday, through the weekend, and at least into the middle of next week we are looking at hot and sunny weather, driven persistent high pressure. This means mostly sunny skies, highs near 100 degrees, and warm, humid nights. It is possible this pattern breaks somewhat by the middle or end of next week, but I would not hold my breath.
Eric
Any chance of some of those intense breakaway storms with high winds and hail like we saw a few weeks ago during the last high pressure dome?
In the post above, it says less than 10% to 20% chance of thunderstorms. I hope this helps.
At least we’re not Phoenix?
At least we’re not Dallas
It’s the dry heat there.
About that…I would rather have to deal with the intensity of dry heat than the combination of intense heat AND the added bonus of the swamp-like humidity.
This summer is a write off folks. A clone of last summer. The summers of hot mornings and early afternoons followed by a rewarding late afternoon thunderstorm is not in the cards. Will August be a normal or a wetter than average month that can salvage this summer? We know how it is here, these death ridges can persist well into September some years. We will see what happens, or doesn’t happen.
Absolutely gross.
I second that!
It seems we get stable high pressure whenever there is an omega shape or otherwise pattern (such as La Niña) that keeps the jet from coming south. We need the jet to remove persistence aloft! The east Pacific Ocean off Cali remains anomalously cold even with a warmed ENSO region. Do any of you weather techs in the gallery care to postulate if the years-old cold phase PDO is still keeping the jet to the north?
The problem is the jet is too far to the south over the eastern US, sweeping away any tropical moisture before it reaches Texas. Typical El Nino pattern, I believe. It’s not as dry as last summer. But if we are to get normal summer weather we need the high to move north of us, allowing easterly flow over us. As it is, the flow is more westerly, bringing in heat and occasional severe weather. (Fortunately we have received rain from two tropical disturbances, though the one last week was blocked by the persistent northwesterly flow over us before it could bring us as much rain as we need.) Notice we have not gotten any disturbances/shortwaves moving in from Louisiana this year. Most of them have been from central or north Texas, which helps explains the frequency of the severe weather in June.
Well, at least the dome is helping to fend off those wannabe tropical upstarts in the Gulf (along w el Niño shear) 😉
Those waters are hissing. My eyes are wary. 👀
Sahara desert would also like a word
My poor AC system. I changed the filter this morning. During last month’s heat wave, at least most mornings started with some clouds, giving the AC system a rest. This morning there’s not a cloud in the sky.
My AC fan motor gave out finally last week. Once replaced, I realized that it had been slowly dying after looking at the historical usage data for the last 6 weeks (thanks SmartMeterTexas).
On the bright side, the AC is ready for the rest of this summer – scheduled to last until Halloween.
Not the greatest forecast, but I’ll take this over hurricane/tropical storm/flooding threats anyday.
Oh, absolutely. If we had decent rain like Oregon, then that would be something, but the superfluous storms we have are ridiculous, as well as flooding/tropical storms/hurricanes.
Also on the plus side, we got decent rain through the spring and, for most of us anyway, some helpful rain last week. Put all that together, and I don’t think we’re dealing with a drought the way we were last year (take a look at the SCW archives for July 11, 2022, and you’ll see we had it worse this time last year than we do today…and Summer 2021, if you recall, was cooler with lots of rain). All in all, I’ll take it.
I’ve lived here all my life, and you know it’s kinda crazy…but…July has always been really hot. I surveyed as a kid, seems I remember one summer where it was 100 every day for a crazy long stretch…And you know what we did, dealt with it because it was summer in Houston, TX. No sunscreen back then either, and I’m still standing.
🥵 Well, even though our melted faces now are evaporating, at least this high pressure keeps the “tropical stuff” away from us. 🥵
OK, so the next post is in October?
If only. Don’t forget, we still have the Tropics staring ominously at us.
No worries! I’d rather have SOS instead of “stormy and windy”, etc!!
Hello Eric and Matt,
So is there any way that this is going to break, let’s say, at the end of next week? This is extremely depressing. I hope that everybody out there is remembering their animals and not leaving dogs outside to die.
We were at Miller Outdoor Theater tonight after 830p
It was actually very pleasant with lovely breeze and did not feel like a sauna!
Throughly enjoyable evening.
Remember – yes its hot but this could very well be the coolest summer of our lifetime moving forward!