In brief: In today’s post we discuss the city’s first freeze in nearly a year, and how long this cold weather will last. We also dig into the chances for snow or a wintry mix later this week (unlikely in Houston). Finally, our attention will turn toward the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex, which faces the prospect of a major winter storm in the Thursday timeframe.
Low temperature watch
I realize it may be difficult to remember back to last winter. After a long, long summer I know it is challenging for me. However, if you recall, we had a pretty potent Arctic blast in the middle of last January. The low temperature at Bush Intercontinental Airport dropped to 18 degrees on one night. And on January 20, the temperature reached 29 degrees at the city’s official monitoring station.
Houston had not recorded a freezing temperature since then—until this morning. As of 7 am CT, the low temperature at Bush airport is 30 degrees, with some locations further inland, in places such as Montgomery County, dropping into the upper 20s. Pretty much the entire metro area, bar the immediate coast, has reached freezing temperatures this morning. This very chilly weather will stick with us through Saturday.
Monday
Although it’s very cold outside this morning, by Houston standards at least, there are at least some bits of good news. Winds that had been gusting up to 30 mph, or higher, overnight are starting to come down. We’ll remain a bit gusty through the morning hours before things really quiet down this afternoon. Skies, too, will be sunny today, and this will help push our high temperatures into the mid-40s. What is beneficial for daytime weather, however, is also ideal for cooling down tonight. And with clear skies and light winds I expect that low temperatures tonight will again drop to the levels we’re seeing this morning, if not a degree or two colder. Tonight will be the coldest night of the forecast period. A hard freeze is possible along and north of Highway 105, which runs from Cleveland to Conroe.
Tuesday
This will be another sunny day, with high temperatures likely reaching the upper 40s. Winds will be light, from the north. Lows on Tuesday night should be a couple of degrees warmer, with the urban core of Houston probably not quite falling to the freezing level.
Wednesday
We’ll start to see some clouds building on Wednesday, which will help to limit high temperatures to perhaps the lower 40s. So this could be the coldest daytime temperature of the week.
Thursday
A coastal low pressure system will bring a healthy chance of rain into the forecast beginning late Wednesday night, and especially on Thursday. Given the ongoing cold weather, this raises the possibility of snow or, more likely the threat of freezing rain. At this point, for Houston, I anticipate that low temperatures on Thursday morning (probably in the mid-30s) will be just warm enough to preclude the chance of wintry precipitation locally. Additionally, daytime highs in the 40s will be warm enough prevent anything from sticking.
But it’s going to be a fairly close call, and we could see some issues in places like College Station or northern Montgomery County. It’s something we’ll continue to keep an eye on, but again, for Houston, I think this probably just ends up being a cold and rainy day. Most areas could see 1 inch or more of rain. Just think, if it were 10 degrees colder, we could be talking about a foot of snow in Houston! Lows on Thursday night should drop into the mid- to upper-30s, which should again be just warm enough to prevent any wet streets in Houston from freezing over. We’ll see.
Friday
This looks to be another cold and gray day, with highs in the upper 40s maybe. Lows on Friday night should be chilly again, perhaps falling to within a couple of degrees of freezing in Houston. Maybe it even gets all the way to freezing again in Houston, I’m not sure.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend looks sunnier and warmer, with highs in the 50s, perhaps, and lows in the upper 30s or lower 40s. So still cold, but not as cold.
North Texas slop-fest
Although Houston will (probably) be missing out on a winter storm this week, the same cannot be said for areas of north Texas, particularly along the Interstate 20 corridor, and East Texas. These areas will also see a decent amount of precipitation on Wednesday night and Thursday, and it is likely to come in the form of snow, or sleet, or both. I anticipate this will set the stage for a major ice storm on the roads of north Texas, so if your travel plans include Dallas, Fort Worth, or anywhere in Texas north of Huntsville or Austin you’ll need to keep careful tabs on the weather. I don’t think we can say which form of wintry precipitation is coming to north Texas, but something cold and slick is indeed on the way.
I suppose travel to the Cotton Bowl might be a bit of a mess…🤘🏼
Looks like homefield weather advantage for the Bucks….unless they close the roof. Hopefully, it gets stuck open.
Of course the roof will be closed. 🤣🤣🤣🤣
I know the models are at best a crapshoot out past a week but the GFS and the Euro are keeping it cold for most of the remainder of the month. The Euro is down right frigid by our standards. After enduring a top five warmest December on record it would not surprise me to see a top five coldest January if the Euro verifies.
Like you said, “if” long range models verifies, which more likely will be different than what your seeing today. Best to wait before predicting records
Yeah this looks like a similar pattern the winter of 1984-1985. At the the time December of 1984 was the warmest on record for this area but then the pattern shifted drastically in Janaury 1985. We had multiple Arctic blasts through January and February that year.
Eric – Thanks so much for your site! I’ve recommended it to many people who are highly complimentary. Info is easy to understand but thorough. Good job!!
Now this is winter right here! Boy have I been waiting for it. I am so glad we are finally going to have a consistent stretch of chilly weather instead of the one and done cold fronts we’ve been getting as of late.
Coastal low moves across our coastal waters on Thursday with developing strong winds, high seas, and widespread rain and showers. Temperatures will go nowhere on Thursday, likely stuck in the upper 30’s and low 40’s with gusty northeast winds and widespread rain. Could see some heavy rainfall depending on the exact track of the coastal low…especially near the coast. Current rainfall amounts look to average 1-2 inches over the area.
Sheesh … it’s 8:24am, and we are lingering at 29 degrees here in Magnolia. Got down to 26 degrees. Drained the underground irrigation yesterday. Still dripping indoor faucets.
Is this week’s coastal low going to experience the same warm Gulf temps that were speculated to maybe cause our Christmas storms to outperform the predicts? In other words is there upside to the rain predict of 1” or more (like 6” or more) ?
Hubby is traveling into DFW Saturday afternoon. What are the chances of all things being de-slopped by then? BTW, we are lifelong Texans recently transplanted to the eastern plains of Colorado. We are currently enjoying a snowy/icy spell with the current temp of 11 degrees and a windchill of 3 degrees. But it’s a dry cold…. 🙂
Going to be interesting for the folks traveling to DFW area for Friday night’s CFP semi-final between Texas and tOSU.
Would it be dangerous to take a drive up north so that my 6 year old daughter can see some snow?
Probably, if you don’t have good tires and are not used to driving in snow. I just got back from Colorado and have a fresh set of snow tires if you want to borrow my car!
Since Texas has removed state inspections for safety…expect mass casualty auto accidents during this time
From the cars that would have been inspected in the first 10 days of this year? Which is the only window in which those inspections have not been required to get a license sticker.
YES.
“Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious summer by this son of (name your favorite heat in the home supplier)”
Disappointed we won’t get snow, but glad we won’t get what DFW will be getting. Not even seasoned Midwesterners like me want to get that.
No freeze or signs of a freeze in SW Houston. Lowest temp observed at this location was 34F.
If you need a freeze, then take a drive from SW Houston up here to Magnolia,
While I’d prefer the 70’s, I’ll take the 50’s. I’ve lived through this cold for far too long growing up in Wisconsin. It’s why I live in Texas. Give me warm weather!
I realize that this post has little to do with the current freeze, but this seems like the forum that might have an answer for a question my spouse and I are considering: does insulating a garage with a refrigerator decrease or increase the average temperature during the summer?
The refrigerator will give off heat (transfer) so if the insulation effectively cocoons the garage from external heat sources ( the sun) the heat from said refrigerator would raise the temperature in the garage – but not enough to make a meaningful difference. The only true purpose of insulating a garage is if you intend to add a climate changing system to it, ie, A/C.
Ready for this cold stuff to go away already. Bring back the 60s and 70s!
Don’t worry we will have constant 80s and 90s for 10 months starting a month or two from now.
Very true, sadly. The weather around here goes from bloody horrible to bloody horrible very quickly. Even that would be tolerable if Houston wasn’t such a crappy place. Too big, too much traffic, too much pollution, useless city administration, too many drivers who care less about others, too many…..!
Will be open season on transplants soon. Yeeeeehawwwwww TEXAS!!!!
y’all 80s are not that bad.
100s, on the other hand…
btw, Houston just got our hottest year in recorded history last year, and no, i’m not mistaking it for 2023. I mean 2024, whose summer seemed pretty mild to me because it “only” got to 100 on nine days, rather than like 30. Just imagine how nice it would feel to get what used to be considered a normal summer.
2 years in a row of the hottest year on record, for both Houston and (probably) the world.
Doesn’t snow also depend on the temperature at altitude? Could this be freezing on Thursday?