July will do July-like things in Houston

In brief: Today’s post looks back at a fairly typical June in Houston, and ahead to what we might expect in July. We are confident that the first week is going to be rather hot and mostly sunny, but there is no reason to expect high pressure to dominate the entire month.

June a bit warmer than normal

The month of June ends tonight, and if we look back the month delivered slightly above normal temperatures, and for most locations near-normal or above normal rainfall totals. All in all, it was a fairly typical June for the Houston region, which is to say plenty warm and humid, but without the high pressure that can lead to truly searing temperatures. That typically is reserved for July, August, and part of September.

So what about the upcoming month? Although we are going to start out with high pressure in residence, there is no strong signal for it to hang around all month. Instead, seasonal forecasters predict near-normal temperatures for the month, and average rainfall totals. Therefore we might have some hope that despite the very hot start to the month of July, all of July won’t be like this. We shall see.

Monday

Today will be a bit of a transition day. Some scattered showers will still be possible later this morning and during the afternoon hours, but overall coverage should be lower than on Sunday. I’d put chances around 30 percent. We should also start to see increased levels of haze due to African dust. This may cause some issues for people who are sensitive to dust. This haze should stick around through about Wednesday, or so.

Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the low- to mid-90s. Winds, generally, will be from the south at 5 to 10 mph. Low temperatures tonight should drop into the mid-70s for Houston.

Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday

As high pressure takes hold, our rain chances will drop back to about 10 percent daily. Highs will vary between the mid- and upper-90s most days, with sunny skies and the aforementioned haze sticking around. Nighttime temperatures will drop into the mid- to upper-70s. Basically, it’s going to feel like full-on summer in Houston so prepare yourselves.

July 4th holiday weekend

Independence Day is Friday, and as usual in Houston we will celebrate our independence from cold air. Temperatures should peak this weekend, with much of the region away from the coast reaching the upper 90s to go along with sunny skies. We cannot entirely rule out a chance of rain on July 4th, but even if you do see a stray shower (perhaps a 10 percent chance), there should be nothing to mar fireworks shows across the area. Mosquitoes, on the other hand, are likely to be abundant after our rains of the last week.

Next week

There is some evidence that high pressure may back off a little bit next week, allowing for temperatures to moderate slightly by Monday or so, with a better chance of rain. We shall see, but at least it does not appear as though we are going to be seeing a perma-ridge type pattern where the high never wants to break.