In brief: We are fast approaching the arrival of a winter storm, which is likely to begin with freezing rain or sleet late on Monday, and transition to snowfall early on Tuesday morning. Although we still have some questions about the details, there is little question that large chunks of Houston are going to get frozen in on Tuesday due to icy roads.
The coast with the most
One of the emerging trends we’re seeing in higher resolution models today is a greater concentration of snow in coastal areas, including Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers counties. Matt mentioned the possibility of blizzard conditions tomorrow on Galveston Island, and I think it’s distinctly possible. Winds are going to peak between midnight and noon on Tuesday, with gusts likely above 35 mph. When you add the likelihood of heavy snowfall, you have the potential for a once-in-a-lifetime winter storm on the upper Texas coast.
How much snow will I get?
Snowfall forecasts are really difficult. Why? Because 0.1 inch of precipitation in rainfall equates, roughly, to 1 inch of snow. So relatively small differences in total precipitation lead to rather significant differences in snow accumulation. With that in mind, it does look as though the majority of the Houston area is likely to at least see at least 1 to 2 inches on Tuesday between midnight and noon. But totals could run much higher.
There likely will be a band of heavier snow, perhaps up to 6 inches or even a little more. I think it’s more likely this banding effect sets up near the coast, or possibly even just offshore. However, it could also line up along Interstate 10. Areas further north, including The Woodlands and College Station, appear to be less likely to get multiple inches of snow on Tuesday.
How cold will it get?
One area in which the models are really struggling is how cold air temperatures will get on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. There remains a wide variance, and most locations in Houston may get as cold as 15 degrees, or remain relatively warm, in the upper 20s. Some of this variance is due to how the models are handling snowfall totals. In any case, we will try to refine this forecast in coming updates.
When will we thaw out?
Most of the model data continues to indicate that high temperatures will reach about 40 degrees on Wednesday. This, along with ample sunshine, should help to melt and dry out our roadways. If moisture remains on Wednesday night, then it is likely to re-freeze on Thursday morning. However at this time my best guess is that roads are OK beginning Wednesday afternoon, and onward. But it’s something we’ll keep an eye on.
How historic is this?
I’ve been writing about weather in Houston for a quarter of a century, and I’ve never seen a winter storm setup like this. Parts of the region saw several inches of snow back in December 2004, but it was mostly a coastal event, with much of Houston seeing flurries at most. We probably have to go back to 1895 to find an winter storm event that exceeds what the region is likely to experience on Tuesday.
Update schedule
Our next update will come this evening, no later than 10 pm CT. Then we will have full coverage for you on Tuesday, starting before sunrise. Please be safe and warm!
“Unthaw”? You mean “thaw”?
I noticed that. Thaw out or unfreeze. Definitely not unthaw.:)
Give the poor bloke a break, he is trying to help us all without the nitpicking on words.
In any case: The OED; Unthaw. v. N. Amer. melt or thaw.
You might want to look unthaw up in the dictionary before you throw shade.
I am still skeptical of the snowfall totals being forecasted. We will see…
I was skeptical of the 40+ rain forecast for Harvey….. then I got it.
Hoping the forecast is wrong, but getting nervous that it seems to be getting worse and worse…
Because there is plenty of data in the Houston area for rain and hurricane predictions. There isn’t much historic data to predict this snowy mess.
I much prefer 80 degrees. Sigh…
You and me both!
That eighty degree day with low humidity and only partially cloudy skies is one of the nicest days of the year around here.
Thank you for keeping is informed.
I seem to remember being frozen in for several days back in December 1989 with several inches of ice on the roads and the entire city was shut down. Am I wrong about this? And thank you for all your updates. I already subscribe to you and get your emails 😊
You are correct. It was the only year we ever had a pipe go. But it was well below freezing for several days if I remember.
Thanks guys for keeping us up to date. As far as comparisons, how will Enzo compare to Uri? (This one with the 2021 storm) we lost power for 3 days in 2021 and quite frankly that is my main concern.
Thanks!
Mine too. Two Gas generators (with way more than a week of fuel on hand) and two Solar generators tested and ready to go. If the NG fails I have a indoor LP heater and CO dectors.
2021 taught me a lesson and I’m not going to repeat it. I’ll enjoy the snow this time with the Shelties. Last time only the Shelties enjoyed it, I was too busy freaking out trying but failing to save the pipes from freezing.
I am originally from Utah; lived there from birth (1956) until late December 1997, and then again from mid 2012 to mid 2016. So these kinds of storms are nothing new to me. But down here, the houses are not built for 50-60 degree temperature differentials that you see in the winter routinely up there. They are built for maybe 20 degree differentials seen in the summer months. Water lines are underground like 3 feet (frost depth was 24″) and enter into the interior of the house, and are not exposed at all. NO worry about a water line freezing. And all the sprinkler system lines have automatic drain valves at low spots. so the lines are continuously drained when not in use. All you need to do is shut off the water to the valves and cycle the valves a few times to let any water drain away.
I do remember many weird storms though up there. October 24, 1984, we went to bed and woke up the next morning to 24″ of snow on the ground. No real warning. Rain was expected. July 23, 1990, at our family cabin in the Uintah Mountains (6700 feet elevation), we went to bed and woke up to over 12″ of snow. No warning! December 1991 and into Jaunary 1992, we had like 30 days straight where the temperature was near or below Zero F every night and never rose above 15F-20F during the day. That actually started to freeze pipes buried in the ground 3 feet and we had to trickle water, just like here.
And as I get older, I get overwhelmed by these cold events. I just hope that everyone makes it through the next few days okay!
Starting 5:pm CST to lightly sleet S or Lake Conroe. Can’t see if falling but as I’m covering the last of my plants it’s bouncing off of the covering
Is 8 pm still a good cutoff for getting off the roads in The Woodlands?
I’m feeling all 2021 except snow conditions. Where it was too complex to forecast and then we were just stuck riding it out. Stay safe and warm everyone and I hope all the power stays on!
“Unthaw”? I believe that is defined as the opposite of thaw. So the question you posed actually means “When will we freeze?”
High temp for today here in Magnolia was predicted to be 42 degrees (3-4 weather websites) … it hasn’t risen above 36 degrees.
Not looking good up this way.
Cloud deck slid in early. With little time for solar insolation, temps struggled. That said, cooling should be a bit slower until evaporative cooling of precip picks up.
If you aren’t familiar with snow and get the opportunity to go walking in snow while it’s falling, do it!!!! There’s a muffling quality to snow that is magical. This is what I am looking forward to tonight. That and seeing how my dorkie, Lily Belle Wigglebottom, reacts to snow for the first time in her life.
There no such thing as “unthaw.” It’s freeze or thaw.
Well, ‘unthaw’ has manifested now, so let’s enjoy it ☺️
Thank you. One of the few times weather-wise that I am glad to be in College Station.
so whats the power situation looking like?
ERCOT shows an 11.1 GW reserve over forecast demand.
Thank you, thank you for these updates. Incredibly informative and helpful
Some sites seem to be backing off from the more severe forecasts. Less snow than they were previously forecasting. Given the way the weather seems to go in Houston I think we are going to see heavier snow north and south of Houston but very little if any in the city of Houston limits. We will still get some sleet and freezing rain so there will be dangerous places on the roads and Houston drivers will find them. Enjoy the snow Galveston, Pearland, The Woodlands and Spring.
I love what he said about the majority of Houston getting 1-2 inches. That I can deal with. But I cannot wait for this nightmare to be over I’ve had enough “historic weather events” to last a lifetime or two!
Thank you.
Let us hope the upcoming Ground Hog Day doesn’t result in “6 more weeks of winter!”
Groundhog Day in 12 days. Hope we don’t get “6 more weeks” of this stuff!
I’m confused as to what is actually setting up this snowstorm. Most of our “rain events” are cold fronts or warm fronts, moving through the area, possibly even a tropical storm or hurricane – those are low pressure systems. I’ve heard none of these words when it comes to this storm, and I haven’t seen it approaching on radar, it’s just popping up. What’s causing it?
I had sno idea that a snow ratio even existed!
That’s cool! 🌬 ❄❄❄
7:14 pm and it’s already snowing in Cypress.
“Unthaw”?
Getting sleet out here in Sealy right now.