In brief: Houston will see plenty of sunshine through the weekend, but we will also start to see some slightly better rain chances. By later Sunday or more likely Monday, the pattern will change more noticeably, with increased clouds and the potential for widespread showers.
A slowly changing pattern
With one or two exceptions, most of the first half of September has seen sunny days with near zero rain chances. This pattern, especially over the last 10 days or so, has seen high pressure dominate our region’s weather. This is now slowly beginning to change, and by this weekend an upper-level system will shake things up. As a result we will see modest rain chances over the next couple of days before the potential for more widespread showers by Monday, which perhaps will persist for much of next week.
Wednesday
Today will bring sunny skies into the region with our typical temperatures in the low 90s for much of the central metro area, with inland areas getting a little warmer than this and the coast remaining a little cooler. There is some support in high resolution models for the development of scattered showers, and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms, between about 3 pm and 7 pm this afternoon and early evening, before the loss of daytime heating. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s for most locations.
Thursday and Friday
Both of these days should see sunny skies. I do think high temperatures may be 1 or 2 degrees cooler, but it will still be hot during the afternoon. Rain chances both days look a bit lower, perhaps on the order of 10 to 20 percent.
Saturday and Sunday
Most of the region should see highs of around 90 degrees this weekend, with mostly sunny skies. However, there will be a slight chance of some showers and thunderstorms as the atmosphere starts to become more unsettled. I think the more widespread rain chances will probably hold off until Monday, but I’m not sure of that. For now I’ll go with about a 20 percent chance of rain on Saturday, and maybe 40 percent on Sunday, but these are kind of fuzzy at this point.
Next week
By Monday-ish we should see an atmosphere more broadly supportive of showers and potentially some thunderstorms. This should set the tone for next week, with something like a 40 to 60 percent chance of rain each day. This should also limit high temperatures to about 90 degrees, or less, on a daily basis. As of yet there’s no strong signal for the next cold front, but maybe something weaker may back door its way in later next week. We’ll have to wait and see.
