More recent data suggests a higher chance of storms this evening

Good morning. We’re jumping in here with a quick post on Saturday morning as we’re getting more data about atmospheric conditions later today and tonight. Essentially, what we’re seeing is an atmosphere more conducive to thunderstorms and potentially severe weather than we expected.

To be clear this is not an all-out alert. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has the entire Houston region placed under only a “slight” chance of severe weather for today and tonight. But that is higher than we anticipated yesterday.

Severe storm outlook for Saturday and Saturday night. (NOAA)

A warm day in the upper 80s today will help provide atmospheric heating. This may support the development of isolated showers and thunderstorms from 3 to 6 pm in the vicinity of downtown or areas north of the city. Then there may be a bit of a reprieve before a cold front moves through the area from west to east.

The primary time for concern from storms will run from 7 pm to midnight, as storms generally progress eastward across the area. The front will provide some pretty vigorous uplift and instability, but these storms will be hit or miss. Some areas will get no rain, whereas small pockets of the city or greater Houston region may pick up 2 to 4 inches of rain rather quickly. Embedded in these storms is the threat of strong thunderstorms, damaging winds, and hail. On the scale of excitable dogs—on which my two are invariably a 10 when there is lightning or fireworks—I’d call tonight a 7.5 until things settle down by or before midnight.

The bottom line is that this evening will bring the threat of severe weather to Houston, and based on our latest data we think it is prudent to be weather aware. Things may be just fine, or there may be an hour or two of bedlam. Have a good radar app available to check conditions in your area. We are still highly confident that things clear out overnight, bringing the region some drier, sunny, and most pleasant weather for Sunday and Monday.

14 thoughts on “More recent data suggests a higher chance of storms this evening”

  1. Thanks SO MUCH for the numbers on The Excitable Dogs scale. This is very helpful to me, and the furry kids!!! Lol

  2. Having a dog that isn’t that big of a fan of the thunderstorms will be happy if it doesn’t go past midnight

  3. LOVE the inclusion of the scale of excitable dogs. As far as our house is concerned that’s a genius addition to the weather forecast!!

  4. We have meds for our dogs. The early morning storm surprised us but a 50 pound dog jumping on our heads woke us up to the thunder and lightning. Gave her a pill, she got my side of the bed and I slept on the couch!

  5. Hi Guys,
    Is there a general “rule-of-thumb” for turning up the thermostat in the summer if we leave the house for some hours or days? I have in mind to raise the thermostat by 4 degrees to about 80F if we leave the house for 4 hours or more. I realize every house is different by size, orientation, location, etc. but I’m just inquiring about your thoughts and experience. Thanks in advance for a response.
    HLS

    • 80 degrees is a good setting for the A/C when you are away. When we leave for a few days out of town I set it to that temp. It keeps the house semi cool without breaking the bank.

  6. Love Scale of Excitable Dogs! To which I might add Scale of Terrified Cats. I wasn’t sure I’d heard distant thunder at ZDT this morning until I heard our cat scrabbling up the side of our bed and under the covers.

  7. Thanks for the excitable dog scale. Millie hates thunderstorms and the scale of 7.5 is probably a 10 for her.

  8. Dogs can be trained to pretty well tolerate sudden loud noises. Our retriever doesn’t mind too much.

  9. Try training your excitable doggies with thunderburgers. At least that’s what we call them — pieces of cheese, lunchmeat, whatever they like. Crack of thunder? Give ’em a thunderburger! Another crack of thunder? Another thunderburger. Part of the trick is to be ready with a pile of goodies before things get too loud and they’re too desperate even to think of food. This has worked with almost every sensitive dog that we’ve had — just be patient!

  10. Thank you for the details.
    This site is amazing and I can plan my day around it 🤭☺️more specifically my gardening day and outside work.
    Again,thank you.

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