In brief: Serious flooding is ongoing in Central Texas along the Guadalupe and San Saba Rivers after a foot of rain or more fell across parts of that area. Locally, another round of thunderstorms is likely this afternoon, followed by a fairly typical summer-like pattern this weekend and beyond.
Thursday & Thursday night storms
As noted yesterday morning by Eric, the forecast changed rather abruptly. And yesterday’s storms, while fairly quick movers, hit with some punch. Thankfully they did, as we saw instantaneous rain rates as high as 4 to 6 inches per hour in spots! Rainfall varied overall, with as much as 2 inches or a bit more in northeast Harris County and about a quarter-inch in western Harris County.
On a more serious note, parts of Hill County have seen some severe rain overnight. South-Central Kerr County is estimated to have received as much as nearly a foot of rainfall. This has led to flash flood emergencies there and along the Guadalupe River. The river at Hunt, TX is approaching 30 feet, beyond the 1987 flood event at that gage.
Downstream in Kerrville, they aren’t expected to hit the 37 feet of 1987, but it still looks to be a top 3 flood. Meanwhile, San Angelo saw around 8 inches of rain, with over 12 inches just north of the city. Additional rivers are expected to rise deep into flood stage, with major flooding possible in spots. If you have friends or family that headed out to the Guadalupe or San Saba Rivers, make sure they’re taking any warnings from local officials seriously. More rain is possible today, with some already occurring again this morning.
Today
For Houston, today should probably unfold somewhat similar to yesterday with showers likely to pop up across the region this afternoon. Rain could again be heavy.
Storms should keep moving today limiting flooding risk. Some gusty winds and frequent lightning will be possible as well. We do expect storms to settle down or dissipate in time for evening celebrations across the region.
Weekend
Additional scattered showers and storms are likely tomorrow, followed by a lesser chance on Sunday. Overall, if you can just manage to live with some passing showers for an hour or two, the weekend should be fine. We’ll keep watching in case anything should change on us again, however. Expect highs in the mid-90s and lows in the 70s.
Next week
It looks like a mostly typical summer week next week. I would expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, with highs in the 90s. There may be a skew toward slightly less afternoon storm coverage and hotter temps later in the week.
I keep seeing “typical summer weather” in forecasts over the last few weeks, but it honestly seems to never come. Just dreary and rainy with only the shortest moments of clarity to make you realize what you’re missing! I want hot and dry and blue skies. I’m thankful for the rain, as any good Texan should be, but yeesh! Somebody needs to turn off the spigot for a bit to let the sogginess dissipate! Everything has just been staying wet and gross.
That’s what this week was supposed to of been. High pressure was to come in and be hot and sunny dry week into the weekend. As it gets closer forecasts change, or really modeling.
I prefer this over the summer of 2023 or last August. In today’s climate, that’s what you get when high pressure takes over for an extended period. For everybody wishing for high pressure, be careful, you may get more than you bargained for.
I’m with you on this. Many people forget those truly brutally long bone dry stretches with temperatures at or over 100 degrees and you wished it was only 95. 2011 was so dry and hot for so long Houston’s own Memorial Park as well as Bastrop State Park near Austin caught fire and a lot of trees and wildlife and some homes were lost. I actually fried an egg in a cast iron skillet on my concrete steps! No thank you, I’ll take clouds and rain any day so long as it isn’t a tropical deluge like Allison or Harvey.
Don’t worry if the current forcast is correct than late next week its going to be sunny with no rain and highs in the upper 90s for the foreseeable future.
Mind blowing atmospheric physics. Hoping folks stay as safe as possible.
It’s almost like Barry kind of reorganized itself a little
Has any of this precipitation reduced drought conditions in West/Southwest Texas?
Central Texas flooding can be bad – I’ve seen creeks become raging rivers and I’ve seen the Comal deposit tires in tall trees and leave foundation slabs where houses used to be.
Prayers for all those affected.
That’s because the land is more wavy in central Texas with steep slopes in some areas. This causes fast currents when it floods.
I’m suprised how many people want it to be clear and sunny. It’s like people forgot how brutally hot it gets here this time of year when the sun is out all day.
Thank you to all the first responders from around the state that are responding in Hunt and Kerrville. Peace be with all of you.
Was the amount of rain in central Texas forecasted or a total anomaly? What’s happening there is hard to fathom.
Prayers to those who have lost someone or waiting for good news at Camp Mystic. I don’t understand how forecasters got it absolutely wrong in the 24-48hr window and keep calling for high pressure. Here in Houston every channel was saying it was going to be hot and dry weekend. Only on July 2nd 10 pm they upped the chances for Houston rain for July 3 and put it at to arrive for afternoon commute. The rain came at 11 am at Sugar Land. From a simple look at Windy I could tell rain or cloud bands were going to come to Houston sooner. I have seen the same during Memorial Day flood and Tax day floods. Are forecasters simply reading out NOAA forecasts with colorful slides in front of camera and nothing but show casters? Since Memorial Day flood, over the last several years, I have taught myself to use Windy app to be self informed because you know show casters well miss it just when you need it. SCW is the other source I trust.