In brief: Houston gets another day or two of nice weather before a big warm up Sunday and especially Monday (near record highs). A strong front with details TBD looks increasingly likely sometime on Thanksgiving Day, ushering in a spell of colder weather next weekend.
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Today and Saturday
It’s another cool morning, with Bush Airport down to the 40s and Hobby down near 50 degrees. Look for another spectacular day today, with highs into the 70s or upper-60s and plentiful sunshine. Much the same tomorrow but it’ll be a couple degrees warmer.
Sunday
By Saturday evening, winds will have turned around to come from the southeast, ushering back in humidity and allowing for a pretty decent warming trend. We should punch back up to near 80 degrees Sunday afternoon, after a morning in the 50s. You will notice a breeze during the day and the humidity start to pick back up some by evening. It’ll be mainly sunny once again, however.
Monday and Tuesday
Monday’s forecast for mid-80s will come close to testing the record of 86° set back in 1967. Look for our warmest temperatures then. A weak cool front is likely to push through the region either Monday afternoon or evening. I suppose we could see a passing shower Tuesday morning, but overall this front looks relatively uneventful. Tuesday will be a bit cooler, however, with highs back in the 70s and morning lows in the 50s or low-60s.
Wednesday
The big travel day. A storm system in the lee of the Rockies will begin to develop on Wednesday. Locally, this will lead to a significant shift back to onshore winds. It will be breezy and a bit warmer Wednesday again with more humidity. Along with this could be some passing showers or thunderstorms. Highs will be back near 80, with morning lows in the 60s. Travel to Colorado will likely feature significant weather and mountain snow. Travel to Louisiana or points east should be mostly fine. Travel within Texas looks mostly fine for now as well.
Thanksgiving Day and beyond
Models seem to be in agreement that the next strong cold front hits on Thanksgiving Day. The good news is that it looks relatively moisture starved here in Southeast Texas — for now. We’ll see if that continues. But the it will turn windy and sharply colder at some point either Thursday or in time for napping on Thursday evening it appears. Temperatures should fall into the 40s Thursday night.
Colder weather will remain through the rest of the holiday weekend. I am guessing we’ll see a reinforcing shot of colder weather to follow Sunday or Monday before perhaps a more meaningful warming trend after the holiday.
I was playing around with the GFS models 2M temperature anomaly for Thanksgiving weekend. You can clearly see much warmer “blobs” over the cities of Houston, Dallas, San Antonio and Austin. Impressive that the models now have the resolution to forecast these warmer domes of heat over our cities. They are still not perfect but clearly getting better…
This was over on the Tropical Tidbits website. Just hit forecast models, go down to thermodynamics 2M anomaly and look at all the blue cooler air over Texas and the warm blobs above our cities.
I agree. I have noticed that as well.
Urban Heat Island is real 🥵
I think that dry fronts are very disturbing….not “good news”. HOU remains below normal rainfall.
Well, it looks like fall is going to step out again to go get more milk.
So as of now, Turkey Day calls for shorts in the morning and hoodies in the evening. Classic SE Texas
“Perhaps a more meaningful warming trend after the holiday.”
No!! Haven’t we had enough warm weather? I’m tired of flirting with record highs all the time. Can we just have one winter where it is cooler outside more than it is warm? I guess that is to much to ask.