It has been cold during the last week, but we still haven’t had really, really cold weather yet. Houston’s first Arctic front may come later this month, however. We are certainly due.
LATE FREEZE?
Houston is more than a month late for its first freeze of the season. Since the official weather station moved to Bush Intercontinental Airport in 1969 the first freeze has come, on average, on Dec. 1. It’s never been later Jan. 5th, according to data collected by Brian Brettschneider. That’s tomorrow.
TODAY and TUESDAY
Conditions today and Tuesday will be similar to Sunday, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the upper 50s. Tuesday morning will be cold, but I expect most of the area to remain above freezing. If that’s the case this winter will bring the city’s latest freeze since the 1960s.
WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY
Our weather will warm up, turn gray and potentially rainy on Wednesday and Thursday, with highs from 60 to 70 degrees. Right now the best chance for showers appears to come on Wednesday afternoon and night, and I’d expect most areas to see 0.5. to 1.5 inches of rain, with some thunderstorms possible late Wednesday. Nothing to be overly concerned about, however.
WEEKEND
Temperatures will be seasonally pleasant this weekend, with highs around 60 degrees, give or take, and lows in the 40s. Days will be mostly sunny, although there may be some showers breaking through on Saturday.
ARCTIC FRONT?
The GFS model has begun to show the possibility of much colder air moving down from Canada in 10 or 11 days from now, which would bring the region’s first freezing mornings and possibly push nighttime temperatures into the upper 20s. However this feature only shows up in a few of the ensemble members of the European model, so it’s hard to have too much confidence in a serious cool down at this time. We’ll have to watch and see.
If you’re looking for the Houston marathon forecast, I’ll have that out soon.
Thanks for all your hard work again this year, Eric! ???? Happy 2016!
Thanks Joyce! Happy New Year to you!
Cotton Station?
Just got back from a few days in St. Louis for New Years. The flooding is really bad up there obviously, but it’s even worse in northern Arkansas. Even an inch or two at this point is going to make things even worse. I’m also worried about how bad it may get in Louisiana as the Mississippi Rivers waters head that way.
Yes, Cotton Station. Defined by the NWS as an “unknown location” in Harris County.
And the pictures I’ve seen of the Mississippi River are unreal.
Hey Eric!
I got a weather station for Christmas… Mostly because you’ve made me obsessed with the weather. 😉
I always knew our horse ranch in Montgomery it was colder, but now I have a few questions for you.
I’m about 2 miles outside of downtown Montgomery. Where are official temperatures typically recorded from? Is there that much of a difference between city spaces and open spaces? Last night we were forecast to be above freezing. Most weather stations around us were.
Yet, We froze for four hours and got to 27. All the horse waters froze on top. Most stations around us were 10 degrees above us. I drove around our neighborhood and all the grass had frost… So it seems like I guess I’ll be learning the definition of micro climate. 😉
Daytime temperatures are typically right on target with everything in our much larger surrounding area, I was just a little surprised last night there was such a difference. (KTXMONTG49)
Any insight would be appreciated!!!
Brett, I’d go with microclimate but you shouldn’t be 10 degrees off of the Montgomery Station.
I’m not sure how the last few days can be considered “cold”. Apart from the lack of sun and drizzle, it’s been pretty pleasant, and today is absolutely fantastic (good work, Eric)!
Thanks for a look at the entire week, it really helps in planning
We live in The Woodlands, and it seems we too are always colder than the reported temps. Don’t have a weather station though, just you Eric
There’s less concrete and more green in The Woodlands, so that probably keeps you a few degrees cooler than the official station at Bush Intercontinental Airport.