Our August weather continues with hot but not ultra-hot conditions

Good morning. Houston’s typical weather for August will continue on schedule. That means heat, humidity, and for a lucky, very few, perhaps an afternoon shower. Otherwise we’re going to see highs in the mid-90s for days, and plenty of sunshine. We’re also monitoring the tropics, where “Fred” is likely to form later today.

Tuesday

Torrid Tuesday will see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances are probably only about 10 percent this afternoon, Winds will be moderate, at about 10 mph out of the south with slightly higher gusts. Overnight lows will struggle to fall below 80 degrees for much of the area, so it will definitely be sticky.

Wednesday

Wickedly warm Wednesday may see rain chances a little bit higher south of Interstate 10, but otherwise be a lot like Tuesday.

Thursday and Friday

Turned up Thursday and Fiery Friday will see more of the same, with approximately a 20 percent chance of a brief afternoon shower and otherwise hot and mostly sunny conditions.

Saturday and Sunday

Sultry Saturday and Sweltering Sunday—OK, I’ll stop that—should see more of the same. However, rain chances may increase slightly on Saturday and Saturday night as a weak front approaches the region. This front should not change our temperatures much, but may induce enough lift in the atmosphere to bring a 30 percent chance, or so, of rain. Otherwise expect highs in the mid-90s. This hot, August-like pattern should continue into next week.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center started tracking “Potential Tropical Cyclone 6” on Monday. Why the weird name? This is a relatively new product forecasters use when they expect a storm to form, and want to give residents some warning before the storm is directly upon them. In this case, people living in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba are more aware that a tropical storm is likely to form today. If and when it forms, the storm will be named “Fred.”

There is a fair amount of confidence in the forecast track for Fred across the Caribbean Islands, and approaching southern Florida late Friday or early Saturday. After that it probably will go into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and track toward the Florida panhandle. It’s a little too far out to have high confidence, but the coming weekend does look wet in Florida. Fortunately, due to wind shear, chances are Fred remains a tropical storm rather than becoming a hurricane. But again, time will tell. There is no threat to Texas.

One other system of note is in the far eastern Atlantic, having only recently moved off of Africa into the ocean. Forecast models are fairly bullish on this system eventually developing as it tracks westward across the Atlantic Ocean. A lot of models, including the European, bring this system along a track much like that of Fred, across the Caribbean Islands and toward Florida. However, it is possible that this system follows a more due westerly track, reaching the Caribbean Sea about a week from now. In that case it would become something we would have to monitor more closely in Texas. But that is a long, long, long way off and not worth worrying about at all.