In brief: In this Sunday special edition of Space City Weather, we’re offering the latest forecast for the Houston Marathon, which is one week from today. The short version is that things look really good!
Why are we doing this?
One week from now, for my fellow runners, it will be all over. We can throw those training plans into the trash, and for one glorious day eat anything we want without any guilt whatsoever. We’ll have sore legs and (hopefully) great memories. The post-race afternoon always feels sublime to me. And then I wake up the next morning and it’s a herculean task to get out of bed.
Now you may ask, why a bespoke forecast for the Houston Marathon? Well, for one, it’s a selfish indulgence. As a runner, I care a lot about race day conditions. But this is also, by far, the largest sporting event in the city of Houston. This year will have the biggest field ever, with about 30,000 participants in the half and full marathon, as many volunteers, and many more spectators. So there are a lot of people who care about this. The good news is, even a week out, the forecast is coming into focus; and for long-distance runners, the outlook is pretty good. So let’s jump into it.
Week of the race
We’ve had a front come through early on Saturday, which will keep us on the chilly side of things through Monday morning. But then we’re going to warm up dramatically this coming week, approaching or breaking record highs on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Such conditions, with high dewpoints, are brutal to run in. But fortunately a cold front is in the cards for Friday, Friday night, or Saturday morning. This will be our saving grace.
Race Day
The race starts shortly before 7 am CT on Sunday, January 11, with the elite runners kicking off first. (If you’re wondering what category I fall into, search for antonyms of ‘elite.’) There is still some uncertainty in the precise temperatures on Sunday morning, which is natural given that we are still seven days out. Right now my guess would be mid-40s, but I could see anything ranging from about 40 to 50 degrees. Temperatures probably will rise into the lower 50s by noon or so. The air will be dry, in terms of humidity. I expect dewpoints to be quite a bit lower, so that’s great news in terms of efficient cooling.
Beyond temperatures the details are a little more challenging, and subject to change. However, most of our guidance indicates that after the front comes through we are going to see cloudy skies for a couple of days, rather than a general clearing. For this reason, I think we probably will see partly to mostly cloudy skies on Sunday, at least through the morning hours. Because there will be some remnant moisture in the atmosphere (hence the clouds), I think it is possible we could see some light rain (i.e sprinkles or a mist). At this point I’d peg the chances at maybe 20 percent. So pretty low. And there is zero support for hazardous weather or heavy rain.
As for winds, with the frontal passage happening well before the start of the race, I don’t expect anything too crazy, perhaps 5 to 10 mph. We’ll see about that.
Anyway, that’s it: Cooler air with low humidity, probably a fair amount of clouds, some slight rain chances, and light winds. That, my friends, is about as good as one could hope for. Good luck, everyone!
