Good morning. The two major talking points heading into a new week are recapping the wet week that was, and looking ahead to when these rains will end. (They will end, I promise, despite our repeatedly wrong forecasts about the timing of all this). First of all, let’s look at the region’s rainfall from Sunday morning, May 16, through Sunday, May 23. Anywhere in red on the map below received 5 inches during the last week, and the areas in Barney purple got 10 inches or more. Those few pixels in white received 20 inches.
Some areas near Matagorda Bay and the general region of Beaumont and Lake Charles flooded significantly during this event. However, the Houston region—which we define as Harris County and immediately adjacent counties—largely fared OK. In fact, these rains obliterated an emerging drought. Last week’s drought report showed only a few pockets of “abnormally dry” soils near Houston, and those will be gone when the new report comes out this Thursday. The upper Texas coast in an excellent posture, rainfall wise, as we approach summer.
Of course the rains didn’t end on Sunday. Some parts of our region picked up another 1 to 2 inches on Sunday, as deep tropical moisture continued to funnel into the Texas coast. If you remember, over the course of the last week, this humble website initially predicted the widespread rains would end on Friday, and then on Saturday, and then on Sunday. And well, he were are on Monday morning, and showers are still streaming into Matagorda.
So when is it really going to end, Eric, you may ask? My answer is probably Wednesday, and for sure on Thursday. More in the daily forecast below.
Monday
The overall setup remains the same, with moisture streaming in from the Gulf of Mexico today. However, areas east of Interstate 45 are increasingly unlikely to see more than light rain today and for the rest of the week.
However, areas along and west of Interstate 45—including the hard hit Matagorda Bay region—may continue to see at least moderate showers today. Accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible in these regions. Skies will otherwise be cloudy, with high temperatures getting up to around 80 degrees. Rain chances should slacken considerably this evening.
Tuesday
Rain chances will return on Tuesday, although we expect less coverage as the potential for moderate to heavy rain continues to slide further west of Houston. Highs will again reach around 80 degrees, or perhaps a degree or two warmer. The sunshine may peek out through the clouds for a little bit, but no promises.
Wednesday
The reason we’re confident that the rains will end this week is that high pressure will build into Houston from the east and limit the ability of moisture at the surface to rise. We expect Wednesday to be somewhat of a transition day, with partly sunny skies but still a lingering chance—maybe 30 percent?—of light showers. Highs will reach the mid-80s.
Thursday and Friday
We’re pretty confident that high pressure will lead to mostly sunny skies for the second half of the week. This will drive temperatures into the mid-80s to about 90 degrees, with warm nights in the low 70s.
Saturday and Sunday
Right now the weekend looks to remain mostly sunny, with continued warm temperatures in the upper 80s. There is a slight chance of showers on Saturday, but for now I’m thinking we’re going to enter a mostly dry pattern that will become difficult to break.
Lord, I hope we dry out soon. I don’t remember seeing my property so saturated since Harvey. There’s no where to walk without stepping in a puddle of water. Of course with Harvey you had to wade through the water, but the ground is definitely over saturated. Can’t believe I’m looking for drought weather, but in this case, I may be.
No.
UGHHHHHHHHHHHHH I feel like I’m growing mushrooms everywhere. GROSS. And let me tell you how fun it’s been working with one huge compressor broken since icepocalypse. Yay.
We are fighting a losing battle with fleas and mosquitos. Ever since the drought of 2011 I try to avoid complaining about rain (although for Harvey I made an exception), but gosh I’m thinking West Nile is about to start ramping up at this rate if it won’t be dry enough for us to spray.
What area of town are you in? We’re also having a horrible flea infestation!
We are in Cut n Shoot. The dogs are on Trifexxis and we just finished round 2 of the regular flea spray we do about once a year and we are still seeing them. ☹️ I thought the Arctic blast should have helped…
Hey, at least you “own up” to the day by day “misses” unlike — ahem — others. Ha. I’ve told the dog “it’ll be Thursday before you can spend any longer than necessary outdoors”. And I started telling him that Saturday…it just seemed like it wasn’t going to give way.
And, as we all know, rain is better than drought. The front flower bed is LOVING this.
No fan of lots of rain ( two time flood veteran here) but my grass, shrubs and especially my flowering plants certainly look great. Nice to see after the freeze earlier this year. As always appreciate your reporting/forecasting, Matt and Eric.
As a lifelong Houstonian, these consecutive days of constant rain is just gross. Everything is muddy, there’s no incentive to go outside, and when one does, one gets eaten up by mosquitoes.
I’d prefer a mild drought than this constant sogginess but it would be reasonable to have 2 days of rain, then 2 days of none, then repeat.
I’d love it if we could shoo this moisture up to the Pandhandle and let it trickle back to the Gulf via the various rivers.
I have to agree…it has been cooler than normal, and I haven’t used AC yet this spring, which is a big savings, but it is very muddy and puddles everywhere. The grass is growing from the rain, but I can’t mow, because it is far too wet and muddy.
We are on the SW side of town below I10 and we received over 10 inches of rain over the last week. Map doesn’t show that.
standing water everywhere, mushrooms everywhere, mosquitos everywhere, and my garden is drowning. as is my mood. i have never seen weather like this here. i could really really use some sun!
You must be new to the area then because this isn’t that rare.
i have lived here for 54 years ♥
At least the rainfall rates have been manageable. I’ve lived in Houston 40 years, and with the exception of a few sporadic drought years, have seen rainy periods like this just about every year. I guess that’s why we average 50″/year.
1.61 inches up here in Champions in a little over 30 minutes, still coming down strong. I am sick of this…
The sun was shining when we got up this morning! That lasted for about 2 minutes…been raining for about 2 hours now…in Conroe.
Yes here in Montgomery I was high fiveing my husband this morning with the sun only to be very sad one hour later. It is what it is and soon the gates of hell will open and we will pray for rain. LOL.
“However, areas east of Interstate 45 are increasingly unlikely to see more than light rain today and for the rest of the week.”
WRONG.
AGAIN.
Fairly spectacular fail by every weatherman in the greater metro area over the last 7 days.
Maybe you guys could include a “Farmers Almanac” or “Magic 8 ball” segment in your daily forecast. Would be a good laugh to keep a running total of which is more accurate. (This is all said with good humor.)
We are in Kingwood. Got over 10 inches last week and have had a downpour this morning…I am sure we will have more than 2” by end of the day.
Looks like the atmospheric river off of the GoM is pointed right at I-45 and, well, east of 45. My house in Atascocita, near Lk Houston, is closing in on 3″.
Love the “Barney purple” reference!
Well, in Kingwood, we have had 3-1/8” since 10 am today, and if the sky is an indicator, I’d say there are probably another 3 hours of rain coming…
Maybe they meant West of I45 will see light rain. We are East and it’s been pouring for hours. 1.5-2 inches per hour, streets flooded, the whole works.
You guys need to update this forecast before tomorrow. When you don’t know – say you don’t know. If you mess up a forecast, tell us why it was missed and whether or not it will continue to play a factor in the current forecast. Your site is beginning to lose credibility with me and there is little advantage to me using it over just relying on the TV forecasts or the local National Weather Service site myself.
Goodness. What a tough crowd and I’d everyone to simmer down. Meteorology is a mix of art and science and Eric and Matt aren’t “Weather Wizards” that can type the forecast and then it happens exactly like the typed spell happened.
Don’t get me wrong: they are really good but not that good. They provide the best forecast they can – with no hype – but Mother Nature can upend it on a whim. And, yes, I said I wanted the rain to end in an earlier comment but I didn’t take it out on the guys.
They’ve been wrong every day for a week. You can’t understand the frustration with being told the rain is definitely stopping only to have it not stop, day after day?
Can you do better? I can’t!
Amen!
Amen to the summer down comment.
“However, areas east of Interstate 45 are increasingly unlikely to see more than light rain today“ We are on Lake Houston and at 2:30 pm have had 6.7” today according to our weather Station. That’s approximately 17” of rain for is in the last 10 days.
btw DB is not DAB. Not trying to sneak in multiple comments and make it look like more than one person is commenting…
Looks like you guys completely missed this…have you seen all the flooded roadways
Oof. 4+ inches in Atascocita, near Lk Houston, at 2:40 p.m. Moderate intensity radar signals just keep mushrooming up over that portion of Harris county. I’m guessing this is indicative of the presence of the moisture axis.
Make that 5+ inches.
Some sunshine peeking out up here in The Woodlands right now and you guys said it would be rainy OR cloudy today, I am outraged.