Round 3 of severe weather risk in Houston today because why not?

In brief: The chances of severe weather today in Houston have increased a bit, although it still appears locations to north and east of the city will be at highest risk overall. Still, there will likely be showers and noisy thunderstorms around. A couple storms, primarily north of I-10 will be capable of producing hail, damaging wind, or an isolated tornado.

We’re on the every-other-day plan here in Houston right now. Storms on Tuesday, a mini-tornado outbreak on Thursday, and now the area will have another chance at thunderstorms and severe weather today. The forecast has indeed gotten a little more challenging here today, which I explain a bit more about below.

The Houston area is under a slight risk (level 2/5) and marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather today.

The early morning outlook had severe risks ranging from marginal to moderate between Columbus and the Sabine River. (NOAA SPC)

A couple things have happened today to cause these subtle but meaningful changes. We saw minimal showers and storms this morning. Now that the atmosphere is destabilizing a bit, we’ll see more development occur. And, as I speculate on “why” below, modeling generally just didn’t get it quite right based on what they show today. Never verify a forecast on a forecast though, so we’ll see what eventually happens here.

Anyway, a few showers are now beginning to pop up across the area, especially west of Katy and northeast of Baytown. Additionally, a line of thunderstorms is developing back west along I-35 that will become a focal point for general storms and isolated severe weather today.

Radar as of 9:40 AM shows a few showers west of Katy and northeast of about Baytown, with a slowly organizing line of showers or storms back near Austin and San Antonio up through Kileen and Waco. (NOAA)

Over the next 3 hours, expect showers to increase in coverage on the west and north sides of the Houston metro. Some of these showers and storms will also increase in intensity with severe risks going up, especially north of I-10 after about 11 AM or Noon.

A forecast radar view of the HRRR model for 1 PM today showing the greatest concentration of thunderstorms north of Houston. (Pivotal Weather)

Early to mid-afternoon should see peak coverage and intensity. If the area sees another tornado, it would probably happen in that timeframe, though the odds favor something like that happening north and east of Lake Livingston. But as we saw on Thursday, when odds of severe weather were also highest north and east, the most “photogenic” tornado actually occurred back in El Campo. So, while we are confident that the highest odds of bad weather are to the north and east, our odds here are certainly not zero. Have a way to receive weather alerts today if you’ll be out and about, just so you’re aware of anything changing.

Storms should begin to “line out” and exit the area west to east after 4 PM or so, with quiet weather expected tonight. Tomorrow still looks delightful, with sunshine and comfortable temperatures around 70 degrees.

Playing catch-up?

Worth noting: One commenter pointed out yesterday that it seems like each event has been generally forecast to happen but has tended to worsen as it got closer to happening. Today obviously fits that trend once more. As for why that is? I can’t really pinpoint it with certainty right now. However, I might speculate that an extremely warm western Gulf of Mexico might have something to do with this.

Water temperatures in the western Gulf of Mexico are significantly warmer than usual right now, in some cases by as much as 3 to 4°C, which may be contributing to storms becoming more severe farther west than predicted. (Weather Bell)

Warm water can help inject more moisture and instability into the atmosphere, and especially so when you’re dealing with temperatures that are as much as 3.5°C warmer than normal. Why would that impact the forecast; shouldn’t this be baked in? The answer is not necessarily. Sometimes models have trouble catching up to anomalies this significant. So it would not be shocking for there to be an element of underforecasting severe risk in this environment by some extent. But I am speculating a bit here. Whatever the case, the pattern mercifully changes after today, and we will see limited to no rain chances until late next week or weekend.

27 thoughts on “Round 3 of severe weather risk in Houston today because why not?”

  7. I remember when it used to be cold more times than not in-between Christmas and New Years. This muggy lows in the 70s crap in late December is for the birds. The warming Gulf is also why we are dealing with hotter muggier summers and these disgusting warm humid winters. It will only get worse folks.

    • It’s wonderful. More of this please. Best December I’ve ever seen here. If the end of January PV breakout doesn’t verify – long range models, could be the best winter yet? Like mid Fla!

    • This is nothing new. There have been warm muggy Decembers in our area for as long as the records go back. The average temperature in December of 1906 was 60.6. This year is exactly the same at 60.6…

      Yes in a warming world we may see a little more of this but keep in mind the low just two years ago on December 23rd, 2022 was 15 degrees.

      • That is my main point, it is happening more often and getting worse. The fact that our hottest December on record by far happened just 3 years ago proves that point. And that cold snap in December 2022 was after experiencing six 80+ degree days in a row with lows in the upper 60s earlier that month. December of 2022 still averaged well above the 30 year norm and the rest of that winter was well above average. Yes we still can get brief cold snaps but a 3 day cold snap doesn’t do much to lower averages when the majority of the winter is loaded full of 70 and 80 degree days with warm nights in the 60s and 70s.

        And it’s not just the urban heat island effect because the average temperatures at rural stations along the coast are warming as well.

        • Including this year Houston has had an average temperature in December of 60 degrees plus nine times in our history. 5 of those years came prior to 1956. So I would not agree with you when you say it’s getting worse.

      • Yeah, December 1906 was a fluke for that time period. Also, two days and two nights are missing from December 1906 in Houston, and it took place during a cold spell, so the average of December 1906 would have been a little bit cooler had it not been for the missing data. Putting that aside, almost every other December before and after that year averaged in the mid to low 50s, with some averaging in the upper 40s. 1906 was the warmest December until 1921. The abnormally warm periods were few and far between decades ago, while they are the norm today. I guarantee you that we will not have to wait 15 years to see another December average in the 60s or beat the record-hot December of 2021 with the trend we are in right now.

  10. Getting quite a bit of thunder. Will the power stay on or go off and on five or six times like in the past?

  12. Three tornadic warning days since the 24th.

    I don’t want to/but/can’t not help think about what level of this we’ll be dealing with in the Spring. Or maybe even through till the so-called Spring when it really ‘ramps’ up.

    What’s to stop it? I hope someone knows some technical reason why ‘it won’t be so bad’ that I can pathetically cling to.

  13. So, while we are confident that the highest odds of bad weather are to the north and east, our odds here are certainly not zero.…

    Please work on trying not just to be “low hype” but also more accurate… the whole area has been effected multiple tornadoes confirmed. Channel 13 runs circles around you.

  14. The storm cell that made that large fatal tornado is edging towards Port Arthur – the radar is continuously lit up white from lightning strikes on windy – it sounds like popcorn at 3 1/2 minutes in the microwave. That’s unreal, those poor folks.

    Maybe it picked up fuel from Galveston Bay as it traveled over the water?

    • I would think that, normally, it would lose heat when it goes over water in December because it would be cooler than the surrounding land. The fact that it is even a possibility that a tornado could pick up fuel over the bay in December is a testament to how insanely warm it has been this fall, and the past two weeks in particular.

  15. Off post. Has anyone received the fund raiser umbrella? I ordered on November 14th but have not received mine. The order status is printing.

      • Please keep us posted on this. Don’t hesitate to email or leave a feedback reply if it takes much longer. Thanks for your patience.

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