In brief: In today’s post we discuss our unseasonably warm weather this week, which will persist into the weekend. The big thing we’re watching for is rain chances this weekend, which will be pretty high, although exact accumulations are impossible to forecast right now.
Rodeo forecasts
The Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo is back, and it will be with us for the next three weeks. We will be providing daily forecasts for attendees because so many people go. The average daily attendance is about 70,000, and last year the event set a record for attendance with 2.7 million people. Also, our long-time sidekick Reliant—our pard in cowboy parlance—is one of the main sponsors of the event. Conditions look fine for the first few days this week, but by the weekend we should see widespread showers. This isn’t so great for the fairway, but it will be very helpful for our soils and foliage as we move deeper into spring.
Monday
Conditions are fairly warm for early March out there, with temperatures in the low- to mid-60s this morning, and we are going to see warm-ish weather all week as a southerly flow dominates our weather. High temperatures today will reach the lower 80s, with mostly sunny skies and modest winds from the southeast.
Rodeo forecast
If you’re headed out to the Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo this evening we really have no weather concerns for you. Expect partly sunny skies before sunset with mild temperatures in the mid-70s before the show. Winds will be from the south at 10 to 15 mph. Afterward there will be increasing clouds with temperatures in the upper 60s. Overnight lows will not drop much further, only reaching the mid-60s for most of the region.
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday
Our forecast won’t change much this week. A front will approach the area, but should stall out before moving into the Houston region. As a result each of these days should see high temperatures in the low- to mid-80s, with somewhat humid air. Overnight lows will fall only into the upper 60s. As a persistent southerly flow remains in place we can expect skies to be cloudy most of the time, and our nights to be warm. Daily rain chances will, overall, be on the order of 20 to 30 percent. Areas well to the northwest of Houston, such as College Station, have a better chance of seeing rain this week. Anyway, this will be our warmest and muggiest week of the year so far.
Saturday, Sunday, and Monday
The weekend looks rainy for much of the state of Texas as a series of disturbances push through. We still don’t have high confidence in rain accumulations for the Houston area, but there is the potential for 1 to 3 inches from Saturday through Monday, with higher isolated amounts. Rain totals area likely to be even greater for central and northern Texas, where locations could see 3 to 5 inches, and there is the potential for some flooding. (Matt will have more on the broader Texas implications on The Eyewall later this morning). Anyway, for Houston, I don’t expect wall to wall rain, but rather we should see cloudy skies this weekend with muggy temperatures and on-and-off showers. If you have outdoor plans we’ll be able to better refine the forecast the closer we get.
Later next week
After unseasonably warm weather for the next week or so, by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week a cold front should push into the area. It’s a long ways off, but this should bring cooler nights back into Houston, with lows in the vicinity of 50 degrees or so. As always, at 10 days out, the details are pretty fuzzy.
