Setting expectations for next week’s freeze: Prepare, but don’t panic

Good morning. As you have probably heard by now, Houston faces the prospect of a hard freeze next week as an Arctic front moves through much of the continental United States. This will be serious cold for the Houston region, and will warrant some preparation. However, this is unlikely to be a disaster on the level of the February 2021 event that sapped the power grid and caused widespread pipe failures. It should be more akin to the February 2022 freeze, which the power grid (and most residences) tolerated much better.

Current forecast for low temperatures on Tuesday morning. This is far from locked in. (Weather Bell)

In terms of air temperatures, we are going to see some seriously cold (for Houston) weather next Monday night and Tuesday night. While there is still considerable uncertainty in how far the mercury will drop, lows are likely to drop into the upper teens to mid-20s for much of the Houston metro area. Here are some suggestions for preparing for this event:

Plants: Bring potted plants inside your garage or home. Apply a thick layer of mulch around ground-based plants, and water them. Cover sensitive plants with a sheet.

Pipes: Cover or insulate exposed pipes, including those under raised homes. Turn off and drain water sprinkling systems. Indoors, open sink cabinets to expose pipes to inner warmth.

Pets: Bring pets indoors and ensure adequate warmth for livestock.

People: Check on your family and neighbors to ensure their homes are winterized, or see if they need a warm place to stay.

Wednesday

Winds have already shifted to come from the south this morning, so after a chilly start in the upper 30s we are going to see highs push into the mid- to upper-60s beneath sunny skies. Winds will at times turn a bit gusty. Lows tonight will only drop into the mid-50s. The combination of light winds, warm air, and cool ground will lead to the likely development of fog tonight.

Thursday

That fog will be thickest on Thursday morning, and you’ll probably want to leave some extra time for the morning commute or getting to school. It could linger into the mid-morning hours. Skies will then turn partly sunny, with high temperatures likely reaching the mid-70s. A robust cold front will approach and move through the Houston region on Thursday night. This could result in a broken line of showers and thunderstorms, but at this point accumulations look slight. We can’t entirely rule out some damaging winds or hail with the front, but overall severe storm chances seem fairly low.

Severe storm outlook for Thursday and Thursday night. (NOAA)

Friday

This will be a sunny and chilly day, with high temperatures of about 60 degrees. Winds will be very gusty, perhaps up to 35 or 40 mph during the afternoon hours. Winds should slacken somewhat on Friday night, with clear skies allowing temperatures to drop to near, or just above freezing in the Houston metro area.

Saturday

This should be a pleasant, sunny and winterlike day in Houston. Look for highs of around 60 degrees. Lows on Saturday night will drop into the mid-40s.

Sunday

Skies will be partly to mostly sunny. If you’re running the marathon, after the chilly start in the 40s, we can expect temperatures to reach about 60 degrees by noon, and then a bit warmer during the afternoon. The air will feel reasonably dry. Winds during the run will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph.

The Arctic front will be arriving later on Sunday in the Houston metro area, likely during the evening hours. There may be a bit of precipitation with the front, but it looks like this will end before temperatures drop below freezing—so at this point I would bet against snow, sleet, or freezing rain. Lows on Sunday night should drop to around freezing in Houston.

Next week

As we start the week, M.L.K. Day is going to be cold. High temperatures may not climb out of the 30s, with a mix of sunshine and clouds. So, brrrr. Temperatures bottom out on Monday and Tuesday nights, with lows likely dropping into the upper teens to lower 20s for much of the Houston metro area. We’re far enough out that some uncertainty remains in how far temperatures will drop (on the lower end, mid-teens are possible, and on the upper end most of the region could stay above 25 degrees). Expect highs to rebound into the 50s on Wednesday, with nights likely staying above freezing after that—but still cold.

45 thoughts on “Setting expectations for next week’s freeze: Prepare, but don’t panic”

  2. One other thing to mention – check your tire pressure Monday. If you park outside, you’ll likely lose 2-3 psi on Tuesday morning.

    • You still have citrus? I lost 15 trees in 2021. Not because we didn’t prepare but because we lost power so all out heat was gone. Luckily we had some seed and have 3 growing in pots now.

    • Yep, getting tired of replanting my satsuma trees. Hope this one will make it, supposed to be made for this region.

  5. Any idea on how long the freezing will last each night? Pipes are a worry but if it gets above freezing the next day it’s a little better. 😳

    • My take on this is that since day temperatures rebound quite rapidly this is not going to be a serious freeze event. It would be different if the freezing temperatures were going to remain day and night. My lantana, pentas and hamelia however are going to take a nice well earned rest.

  7. I am so confused about Houston freezes. Only lived here for two three years and we seem to get one every year? Is this the new normal/has it always been this way? It’s a real PITA.

    • Its a new normal. Growing up here in the 90s-today, when it froze it rarely got down to these temps (I honestly remember like 1-2 events and not as extreme) and that was every few years. Now its every year.

      • Yup. I’ve been in Houston since 1991 and it rarely froze like this. The only time I can remember is when it down to 11° on Christmas 1983 when visiting from Dallas.

    • Looking back at long term history, it actually is pretty normal to see a hard freeze in SE Texas atleast once in a given winter. Sometimes we will go a couple of years without one though. During the 1970s and 80s, this area got hit with brutal freezes almost every winter with atleast one night in the low 20s and teens. The worst cold snap of the 80s was in December 1989 when we dropped down into the single digits on the 23rd. We actually got lucky in the 2000s, because we did not see very many hard freezes during that whole decade. But since the 2010s, we have not gone anymore than 3 years without a hard freeze. The frequency of seeing 25 degree or below mornings has been going up a tick so far in the 2020s. Atleast 2 or 3 times each decade we will have a more mild winter with only a light freeze being the coldest it gets. It seems to be a pretty random cycle for the most part.

      • I remember it went down to 11° on Christmas 1983. I was visiting my brother and the pipes froze. I can still see him outside with the blow dryer! 😄😄

        • Yup…I was in my attic with the blow dryer unfreezing my pipes. Those low temps went for 4 days and nights…many people who were out of town for the holidays came back to water running out their front doors…the worst cold spell I’ve ever seen in the Houston area….

    • Native Texan here – 34 years – and I can tell you before I turned 25, I could tell you of maybe three times it ever snowed. Now, I have children and my youngest ONLY knows freezes and occasional snow. It’s definitely odd to me but seems to be the new norm. I’d much prefer my flip flops and shorts than this every year!

    • I don’t think the seriousness of the freezes we have received since 2021 is normal. 2020-2021: 12 degrees. 2021-2022: 25 degrees. 2022-2023: 15 degrees. 2023-2024: 20 degrees? I am near the line between hardiness zone 9a and 9b, so my annual minimum temp ought to be on average about 25 degrees.

    • I think a lot of people are in denial about climate change which is why they say this is normal. It is not, I mean we have been getting serious droughts, extreme summer temperatures (many days above 100s) and then hard severe freezes after very warm days during the winter. It was never like this even if records show lows lower than what we are seeing now in previous years. My take is that these cold fronts that bring hard frosts are going to be common from now on because of how warm the other side of the globe is, which pushes the artic cold air from the poles to the south (mainly US and northern Mexico), how low it will gets depends on many other conditions. The whole idea that Houston is a zone 9A is wrong and I wouldn’t consider it anymore for gardeners as these extremes will kill any plant that cannot survive outside of that zone and these events are going to become more common. At this point it’s just a matter of adapting and finding ways to prevent damage to your home or your loved ones. Insulate your house, your pipes etc. Clean your chimneys, bring in your plants. Have generators available, etc.

  8. I replace my queen palms each Spring because I really like the look. I know they are not 9A hardy but they have survived consecutive winters in the past. These palms are simply expensive “annuals” since 2020-2021. Thought El Niño would help with that; 25F is the magic number. The GFS is showing around 25F as the minimum 2 meter surface temperature on Tuesday in the METRO, so a glancing hard freeze. I still have hope. My water systems are secured tho. We’ll see.

    • Unfortunately El Nino doesn’t always protect us from seeing a hard freeze. The winter of 2009- 2010 was an El Nino winter, but it dropped down to 19 degrees in Angelton 2 mornings in a row in January 2010. There is a theory that as the Arctic continues to warm, this will lead to more weakening polar vortex events which will send cold Arctic airmasses through the United States more frequently. However, climate scientists say that alot more research is still needed before they can say 100% if that is true or not. It is food for thought though. The weather patterns on Earth tend to be pretty cyclical in nature with so many factors coming to play for every little detail. That is what keeps it so interesting.

    • I dont trust the predictions the models do at this point anymore. You kind of have to just play russian roulette when it comes to your plants and tropical trees in Houston. Even hours before a freeze arrives, some models are way off and don’t show the right current temperatures even after they update to another run! They are messy. Your best bet so far is to follow forecasts from experts who dont hype and are not looking for views/clicks but rather are more interested in informing the public. I think space city weather does a good job at this so you are in the right place. Their predictions about lows are usually wrong too but they are the best ones. Of course, NOBODY knows the future so it is no easy task. I also planted queen palms and it’s a matter of waiting at this point. Sending good vibes to you!

  9. Please include expectations at the coast for your freeze forecast. As you know, it can be a bit different and not the same as the Houston metro area. Thanks!

      • As in the coast forecast? What are those sights? Usually SCW will say something about the coast, maybe as it gets closer to Monday.

  10. The USDA should be chastised because it seems to be changing the hardiness zone based on the idea that this is “the hottest it has ever been.” Weather and climate are not the same, but the USDA doesn’t understand that. Now all my 9A plants will be messed up. When I first came to Houston in the late 1900s, winter temperatures generally had nighttime lows that didn’t get below 30, most winters you didn’t have any worries about freezing. Now, it happens all the time.

    • I almost feel the USDA is going to have to redesign the entire system to account for extremes on either side!

      I am not a fan of the Houston climate (prefer my 4 seasons… it’s what I grew up with) but when I moved here in 2017, I was looking forward to growing some citrus. I’ve given up on my lime tree after two attempts… I suppose I could try to grow one in a pot, that’s probably the only viable option these days.

      • I live in Austin County; my Persian Lime and Meyer Lemon are both in large pots, currently in the garage, with lights (and full of blooms).

  12. Tbh I’m praying that the current forecast ends up being wrong and early next week ends up being a bit warmer, ever since uri I’m a bit afraid of arctic blasts now

    • He must’ve meant Dec 2022. I remember cause it was right around Christmas. Nothing significant happened in Feb 2022.

  14. What is mind boggling is how all over the place the models are. The GFS is showing much more mild temperatures yet is showing another front on the 22nd with much lower ones. The European has us in the teens but only for one night. The Canadian and German have us at like 5 degrees on the 16th lol… all the others how much warmer trends and then the days are changing and temperatures from 60 degrees all the way to 5… what a mess! I wish someone would consider this and at least synchronize the models to have a more organized forecast. Even if it is wrong, it would be better to have some similar direction instead of such highly contrasting predictions.

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