Some storms are possible on Thursday in Houston ahead of a stellar weekend

In brief: Houston won’t see much sunshine for the next three days, and there’s a decent chance of some storms Thursday ahead of a cool front. This front will usher in some amazing weather for the weekend, with sunny skies, dry air, and modestly warm days. For mid-winter, it will be pretty sublime.

Tuesday

Today will be cool and gray, with an easterly flow at the surface. I would expect high temperatures to max out at about 60 degrees for most locations due to mostly cloudy skies. Some very light, misty showers are possible, but I think most of us will not see any precipitation today. Winds will be light. Low temperatures tonight will not fall far, perhaps into the mid-50s.

Wednesday

As winds shift to come from the south we’ll see warmer air and an infusion of moisture into the atmosphere. Although skies remain cloudy, this should allow high temperatures to push upward toward about 70 degrees, with increasing humidity. With all of the moisture in the atmosphere, there will be a decent chance of light rain. However, given the absence of a forcing function I think any showers will be fairly scattered and of low intensity. Lows drop only into the lower 60s on Wednesday night, with a slight chance of rain.

Thursday

A low-pressure system in the upper atmosphere will push a cold front toward our region, and this will produce at least a low-end chance of storms in the Houston area. Although the details remain a bit fuzzy, my sense is that a line of storms will develop to the west of Houston by or before noon, and push through the city during the afternoon. Ahead of this line temperatures will be warm, in the upper 70s perhaps, and muggy. Behind it, dry air filters in pretty quickly. As for the storms themselves, the main threat is thunder and damaging winds. There’s probably a slight potential for some tornadoes, as well, but it’s too early to have much confidence in such a forecast. Temperatures should fall into the lower 50s on Thursday night, with a slight chance of rain lingering behind the front.

Friday

Expect a sunny, pleasant day with highs in the upper 60s. Winds may be a bit gusty from the north, reaching about 20 mph. Lows on Friday night should drop into the upper 40s.

Saturday and Sunday

This will be our nicest weekend in a while. We’re talking sunny skies, and relatively low humidity, and no weather concerns whatsoever. Highs on Saturday likely will be in the upper 60s, and reach the lower 70s by Sunday. Plan your outdoor activities with confidence.

Next week

Most of next week should feel spring-like, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. There’s not a super-strong signal for any rainfall. By next weekend a somewhat stronger front may arrive, but at this point it does not look like anything crazy (such as a freeze) is in the cards. We’ll see.