In brief: We saw some isolated showers and thunderstorms on Monday, and this pattern is likely to repeat itself on Tuesday. However, for the most part we’re looking at hot and sunny weather, and temperatures are likely to increase a bit further for the weekend. This will be a weekend to find some water in Texas.
Tuesday
On Monday a few, isolated areas saw some fairly decent showers. A location along the North Freeway, just south of Aldine, picked up half an inch of rain. A rural area southeast of Alvin picked up nearly three quarters of an inch. The vast majority of Houston, however, may have heard some distant thunder but picked up no rain at all.
So it will go again today, as atmospheric moisture levels are fairly high, but we’ve got generally sinking air due to high pressure. This limits shower activity. However the spark today, like on Monday, will be the sea breeze pushing inland during the late morning and afternoon hours. This will again produce some spotty showers and thunderstorms. I would peg chances at about 20 percent for locations south of Interstate 10, and 10 percent further inland.
Why have I spent two paragraphs talking about a 20 percent chance of rain? Because there’s absolutely nothing else going on with our weather this week except for heat. For the most part we’re going to see hot and sunny weather, and temperatures should reach a crescendo this weekend. Highs today will be in the upper 90s, with lows tonight only dropping to about 80 degrees.
Wednesday through Friday
This pattern will continue, with hot and mostly sunny days in the upper 90s to 100 degrees during the afternoon hours. A few isolated showers will be possible along the sea breeze. Winds will be from the south or southeast at 5 to 10 mph, with slightly higher gusts possible during the afternoon or early evening hours.
Saturday and Sunday
The weekend looks very hot, with temperatures of 100 degrees, to the low 100s, for nearly all of the metro area away from the immediate coast. Skies will be sunny.
Next week
If we look further out, by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week temperatures may come down slightly. But only slightly. And at this point I’m not really seeing any indications of meaningful or widespread rain on the horizon.
Tropics
Tropical Storm Ernesto formed on Monday, and it is moving toward Puerto Rico in the next day or so. Longer term it should become a hurricane and eventually threaten Bermuda. It will not be a player for the mainland United States. Beyond Ernesto? I don’t want to taunt the tropics, but things look to remain quiet for a spell through the middle of August. Fingers crossed.
We need some rain – should we be getting worried at this point? July was wet, but August sun and 95 degree days quickly remove any ground gained from July rainfall.
Unfortunately it looks like we are heading towards a La Nina fall and winter this year. After 2011 I always get nervous about La Nina years. Hopefully we can get more soaking rains in September before the fall sets in because it will probably be a mostly dry fall and winter with La Nina.
I’m looking forward to the Tracking Cold Fronts section. Perhaps after Labor Day (22days!)
More like after September 22nd. We will be teased by cool fronts through most of September and we may see a brief night or two in the 60s between the 22nd and 30th. Than we will be right back in the sauna through the first week of October. That’s usually how it plays out.
While the spots of rain were interesting, I’d gladly take widespread cloud cover to block out the sun.
Or, barring that, just put the clouds in a 2-mile radius of me.
I’m guessing I’m not the only person that picks a vacation spot BECAUSE it might rain while I’m there? Houstonians have got to be about the only people who don’t get why songs about sunshine and sunny days are supposed to be happy.
We’ve had plenty of rain already and we aren’t in a drought, so the high pressure and high temperatures aren’t bothering me at all because the hurricanes have been kept away.
This is nothing like last summer. I’ll take it. It’s August and this is what August does.
I’ll second that…
I’ll third that.
So far, this has been about as good as it gets in Houston in August.
Warm in the afternoons but still tolerable enough for outside work, even for an old guy like me.
And the evenings actually have a mild breeze, plus NO mosquitos.
Fourth. I never want to experience another summer like last summer. Or hopefully by the time the next one comes, I have a vacation home in the mountains I can escape to.
Time to start watering. Already been doing it last Friday. Ground is drying out rapidly. Yards will be stressing soon. Get over foot of rain and it’s gone like it never even happened.
Good Morning – Do you cover the weather in any other cities in Texas?
The death ridge strikes back!!!
The consolation prize is that it’s here in August, not the end of May to torment us for the next four and a half months.
Hang in there brothers and brothettes.
As a music major, I would like to point out that you can’t “reach a crescendo”. In music crescendo means “gradually increasing in volume,” and in the context of your statement, the “crescendo” is the gradual increasing of temperatures, not the point at which temperatures peak.
Stepping off my soap box now. Thanks for your all of your work!
Fellow music nerd. While you accurately defined crescendo in music (the most common usage), it is not relegated to musical reference. It’s an Italian word that basically translates to “increasing” or “growing”. It’s related to crescent (think of the moon’s growth in visibility during the lunar phase).
We live in Klein. Last night we received 3/4 of an inch of rain! It poured for a while.
In past years I would get very frustrated by the lack of rain in summer here. The blog would never explain why, including the one above.
In the comments gallery one reader wrote some time ago about Hadley circulation affecting 25-30 deg latitude, coupled with the hot, high plateau to the SW – creating persistent sinking air for us. Often here in Houston, the air at 5000 feet is warmer than the surface. Ergo no precipitation.
The current heat dome is fairly weak, 500 mb at 5910 meters so today we have clouds and possibly some sea breeze lift. We haven’t seen the persistent sunny blues – no clouds like last year at all this summer. Nice!
The comments re Houston’s situational climate have gone a long way to eliminating the “why does this happen to me ?” conundrum. Would like to see more. After all, watering the veg costs ~2.5 cpg. Much prefer rain and this time of year before the fronts arrive, it only comes from the tropics.
…and just like that, as soon as I posted we got sea breeze lift here and it’s raining! I had hoped for that – otherwise why make comments. The rain gods heard. Haha
Haha the rain gods wouldn’t stop dumping rain where I live last month. Now here in August, the gods have refused to give a drop to my yard so far. I often wonder what our climate would be like if the land of Mexico didn’t exist and it was only warm ocean in its place. My guess is that we would have a much wetter climate annually because the atmospheric cap would not be there nearly as much if at all during the fall winter and spring. We would likely be cooler during the summer as well. Part of why it gets so hot here in SE Texas is because some of the hot dry air from the desert southwest mixes in with our already hot and humid Gulf air. If you look at places like Florida and the other Southeast States their average highs during the Summer are mostly in the upper 80s and low 90s because they don’t get that influence of dry continental air from the desert southwest like we do.
“A location along the North Freeway, just south of Aldine, picked up half an inch of rain.”
Hey that’s me! I feel like I just won the lottery!
Guess I’m one of the lucky ones today: got a real nice rain here in mid-Spring Branch this afternoon! H.C. rain gauge location 2550 registered 1.04″, and as I write this I hear some rumbles of thunder nearby.
We got significant rain – and very significant thunder and lightning – for about 30 minutes today in Timbergrove! It was glorious. In fact, some of our street lost power. 🤦🏼♀️