Stalling boundary will bring heavy rain to parts of Houston metro area today

In brief: A line of showers and storms has moved into the central Houston region this morning, and this activity should sag down to the coast throughout the day. After another chance of showers on Wednesday, most of the rest of this week looks warm, humid, and partly sunny.

Easter Sunday rains

Most of the western half of the region saw rain on Sunday and Sunday night, with upwards of 3 inches in some locations near Katy and The Woodlands. However, many areas closer to the coast remained dry overnight. That is likely to change today as the slow-moving front continues to sag into Houston and moves closer to the coast. Thus the areas most likely to see moderate to heavy rain over the next 24 hours will be south and east of Houston.

Monday

At sunrise this morning a line of storms is present from Sugar Land through Houston and into Kingwood. These showers and thunderstorms are moving very slowly to the east in response to the boundary. For areas inland of these showers, the rain is likely done for today. But for areas south and east, there is a high potential for moderate to heavy rain today. Accumulations will likely be on the order of 0.5 to 2 inches, with higher isolated totals. Rain chances should slacken, area-wide, this evening. Temperatures today will likely max out in the vicinity of 80 to 85 degrees, with the potential for partly sunny skies for inland areas. Lows tonight will only fall to around 70 degrees, with cooler temperatures far inland due to the retreating front.

Tuesday

This should be a partly sunny day with temperatures in the low- to mid-80s. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, but overall chances are probably 30 percent, or less.

Wednesday

A passing disturbance should spark a higher chance of rain on Wednesday, so expect a mix of light to moderate rain with a few scattered stronger storms during the daytime. This should help to limit high temperatures to about 80 degrees. Nights will remain warm and humid throughout the week, and Wednesday night will be no exception.

Thursday and Friday

These should be a pair of partly sunny days with highs in the mid-80s and warm nights. Winds will continue to come from the south, perhaps gusting to about 20 mph during the afternoon.

Saturday and Sunday

If you like warm and humid weather, have I got a deal for you! This pattern will persist through the weekend. As skies likely become a bit more sunny, we can expect high temperatures in the mid- to upper-80s for most of the region. It may be a pretty good beach weekend. For the MS-150 riders you can likely expect a tail wind on Saturday and a cross-tail wind on Sunday. All in all, the only hazard will likely be UV rays, so be sure to wear some sunscreen. Unfortunately for the IRONMAN competition in The Woodlands, while I’m not concerned about rain, dewpoints around 70 degrees will make for very difficult conditions for the long run.

Next week

This warm and humid pattern will likely persist into next week, although there is a chance of a cold front pushing all the way through the area by the following Wednesday or Thursday. I don’t want to over-promise, since that is so far away. However I do have a bit of hope that we are not yet quite done with dry air in Houston