Storms rolling through Houston this morning with placid weather behind for Election Day

In brief: A line of storms passing into Houston will clear the area later this morning, and the region should see clearing skies for the second half of the day. Then we’ll have a brief period, about 24 hours, of somewhat drier and cooler air. A second front (no strong storms this time, probably) may bring some similarly cool weather for the weekend, but no promises.

Election Day weather

You don’t need me to tell you that today is Election Day in the United States. We are seeing storms pushing through the metro area this morning, but they will be east of the area by or before noon. After this there will be mostly fine conditions this afternoon, with clearing skies and light winds as a weak front settles in. Space City Weather is apolitical, but that does not mean we don’t encourage everyone to vote. Please find the time to do so today. The weather will be fine.

And then, after the election is over, I would hope that we remember that we are all Americans, stronger when united than divided. Just because your neighbor put out a Trump-Vance sign, or someone down the street has a Harris-Walz bumper sticker, does not mean they’re a bad person. We’ve been too conditioned by heated rhetoric and social media to ‘hate’ those who have different political opinions. If you actually get out and talk to your neighbors, no matter their political views, you’ll find that in Houston we’re all united behind common values, such as: summertime humidity here is the worst.

Tuesday

I expect the line of storms rumbling into Houston this morning to reach the coast by late this morning, and move offshore. Modestly drier air will move in behind the front today with northerly winds at about 10 mph. We should see clearing skies this afternoon with temperatures in the lower 70s for the most part. I expect it to be quite lovely this evening. Overnight lows in Houston will drop into the upper 50s for most locations, with coastal areas remaining in the 60s. For a day or so, it’s going to feel like fall.

Wednesday

By tomorrow we’ll start to see the beginnings of an onshore flow, and dewpoints will recover pretty quickly. So don’t blink or you’ll miss the drier air. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs of around 80 degrees. Lows on Wednesday night will not drop below 70 degrees for most of Houston with muggier air.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days with high temperatures in the low 80s, and warmish nights with lows around 70 degrees. There will be some low-end rain chances each day, but any accumulations will be slight.

Saturday and Sunday

Another front will approach the region ahead of the weekend, but the forecast models are still pretty divided on how much cooler or drier air it brings. In other words, I’m afraid our forecast for the weekend remains pretty low confidence. If pressed, I’ll say daily highs will be in the upper 70s, with nights in the 60s, but I’m prepared to be wrong. Rain chances aren’t zero, but they’re also not very high, maybe 20 percent daily. We had a question from the Houston Marathon about long training runs for this weekend, and at this point I wouldn’t be overly concerned about rain chances on Saturday morning. Whether we get some drier air in time for a long run remains possible, but not a certainty.

Next week

Even if we do get some decent cooling with this weekend’s front, we should be back into a warmer and more humid pattern early next week. Most of our guidance still indicates the arrival of a nice cold front during the middle of next week, but I’m still not confident enough to make any promises. However, it does seem fairly likely.

Tropics

Tropical Storm Rafael is strengthening this morning, and should cross Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico by later on Wednesday, likely as a hurricane. The storm’s current forecast track may look concerning, but the reality is that there are two scenarios which are most likely—and neither is particularly threatening to Texas.

The first scenario is that Rafael remains a hurricane as it reaches the central Gulf of Mexico, in which case it is likely to be steered toward southeastern Louisiana or thereabouts. If Rafael becomes weaker it is more likely to drift due westward toward Texas. However, in this scenario the storm would be considerably weaker, and probably not pose much of a threat beyond some easterly winds and higher seas. We’ll continue to watch things closely, of course. Look for a full report on The Eyewall later today.