Stormy setup tonight and early Tuesday as a weak front arrives, and what’s that in the tropics?

In brief: There’s a lot going on in today’s forecast, with the possibility of some storms tonight and Tuesday morning ahead of our region’s next front. Then we’ve got an uncertain weekend forecast and the likelihood of a tropical storm moving into the Gulf of Mexico several days from now. We tackle it all!

Stormy setup

Unlike the previous fronts we’ve experienced this fall, a weak front that remains on track for late tonight should bring a line of showers and storms with it as it passes through Houston. The setup is not perfect, so at this time I would only rate it as a 5 out of 10 on the “excitable dogs scale,” but we could definitely see some thunderstorms and strong winds, along with the slight potential for some hail and possibly a tornado. Conditions for storm formation will be more favorable north of Houston.

Storm outlook for Monday night. (NOAA)

In terms of timing, I’d anticipate the storms will reach College Station roughly around midnight, push into the Katy area and Montgomery County around 2 to 4 am, reach central Houston around 3 to 6 am, and push down to the coast by around 6 to 8 am. Note these times are approximate. While the storms should be ebbing by rush hour on Tuesday, I cannot rule out impacts. Some areas may pick up as much as 2 or 3 inches of rainfall as the storms pass from northwest to southeast.

Monday

Today, before the front tonight, we’ll see very warm and windy conditions. We’re talking highs in the mid- to upper-80s for most locations, with very high humidity. Winds will be even gustier than we experienced on Sunday, blowing generally from the south at 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph or perhaps even a bit higher near the coast. There will be the possibility of scattered showers today, much like the region experienced on Sunday. Tonight will be very muggy ahead of the arrival of the front.

Tuesday

After the front passes we may see some lingering showers on Tuesday, with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Expect daytime temperatures generally in the low- to mid-70s. This is not a particularly strong front, and it will only briefly move offshore, so the period of dry air will probably last from around Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Low temperatures on Tuesday night will vary depending on how far you live from the coast, but most of the area should see the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Low temperatures on Wednesday morning. (Weather Bell)

Wednesday

As the front moves back onshore Wednesday, humidity levels will quickly recover during the daytime. Skies will be partly cloudy, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Winds will be light. Rain chances are low, but not non-existent. Low temperatures on Wednesday night will only drop into the lower 70s.

Thursday and Friday

These will be a pair of partly sunny days with highs around 80 degrees, and mild and muggy nights. Rain chances each day will be on the order of 20 percent.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

It’s possible that another fairly weak front arrives for this weekend, but I don’t have great confidence in that part of the forecast. In any case, it might be a situation where inland areas see some cooler nights and the coast remains warm and muggy. As a best guess, I’ll predict highs of around 80 degrees with low-ish rain chances for this weekend.

Most of our guidance predicts a stronger, truly fall-like front to arrive sometime during the middle of next week, but that’s far enough into the future that I’m not fully confident in predicting it will happen. But there does appear to be a fairly strong signal for colder weather toward the end of next week. It is November, after all.

Tropics

I cannot believe we’re talking about the tropics in early November, but here we are. The National Hurricane Center has highlighted an area in the Caribbean Sea as a potential tropical cyclone, and if this system develops (which is likely) it will become named Rafael. At first glance, the forecast track might appear to be fairly concerning for Texas, with a tropical storm in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.

Official forecast for PTC 18. (National Hurricane Center)

There is a lot of uncertainty over this system’s track over the next week. However, if the storm does make it to the central Gulf, it will find fairly robust wind shear and dry air, which should inhibit strengthening. It would be historically unprecedented to have a tropical storm make it to Texas at this time of year, and much of the modeling guidance keeps the storm away, so it’s doubtful we have much to worry about. My sense is that we may see some higher seas by this weekend offshore, but probably not too many other impacts. Regardless, we’ll be watching closely and keeping you updated.

82 thoughts on “Stormy setup tonight and early Tuesday as a weak front arrives, and what’s that in the tropics?”

  1. it’s freaking Nov and this morning felt like early july/mid-oct ish. disgustingly nasty, felt sticky and humid AF

    • It’s never ending. I’ve lost all hope , I fully expect it to feel like this year around now. Not even thin long sleeve tee weather. 😭

    • Someone was shooting off some fireworks in our neighborhood last night. Guess they thought it was July 4th, given the outside conditions.

    • It was 10 degrees above the normal temperature last week here in the central mountains of New Mexico, this morning we have snow and winter storm warnings. The season has been slow to change but it’s happening and will happen there too. I’m a native Houstonian and I understand you’re ready now, I don’t believe your wait will be too much longer.

      • Oh, I so hope you’re right! I like the positive outlook! I’ve lived here my whole life (48 years) and there have been plenty of hot falls and winters but that doesn’t make it any easier lol! We need some relief.

    • Yes, disgusting is the best word to describe this. Just a few more months until my move. Next year I get to have a proper autumn, otherwise I’d be going (even more) crazy. I can’t do this 90 degrees in November BS anymore. All my friends back North are sharing pics of the leaves changing colors and here I am in this swampy disgusting nightmare of never-ending humidity and heat.

  2. With an amazing floral scent in the air after the rains these last two days, my nose says Spring finally arrived.
    In November.

  3. The never-ending month of September continues well into November. Need more info on this line: “But there does appear to be a fairly strong signal for colder weather toward the end of next week.”

    • I feel like this stronger cold front has been potentially coming for a month now. Which is no shade to Matt and Eric’s forecast, just to this crappy weather itself. It’s frustrating.

  4. Hurricane Jeanne in 1980 was the last November storm to hint at making a move towards TX.

    A cold front pushed it away making it one of the rare instances of a gulf storm never to reach land.

  5. What in the world is going on? Average high this time of year is 70 and low 55.

    We’re having may like weather.

    • Actually, the average high in this neck of the woods at this time of year is 76° Fahrenheit and not 70° F.

    • A series of strong upper level lows keep drifting over the northeast Pacific. This is a symptom of a strong positive Arctic Oscillation. The strong counter-clockwise flow around these lows are keeping all the cool air stuck to the north and all the warm tropical air stuck over Texas. Until we see a sharp ridge of high pressure nudge itself over the Northeast Pacific, than we are not going to see colder weather here. High pressure ridges in that region cause the jet stream to buckle over the United States sending cold weather to Texas.

      Eventually the pattern will shift but for now it is likely going to stay warm and humid for the foreseeable future. It is not very uncommon to see very warm and humid weather in early November historically.

      • I have no idea if what you wrote is correct, but as someone who is going nuts trying to figure out WHY this swamp-ass weather continues into November, I appreciate the explanation! Much better than just screaming my rage towards the clouds.

        • Lol no problem that is why I study the science behind weather so much because I have always wanted to know what causes the weather I love and the weather I hate. Sometimes the laws of physics are just against us. 😅

    • That’s why I say “cool front” and sometimes just “front.” It doesn’t get to be called a cold front until lows are being pushed down to low 50s and highs in the 60s. Even that isn’t really “cold” weather, but I guess for Houston it is.

  6. I can already tell this is going to be a repeat of the 2016-2017 winter, except it will probably be even warmer this time.

  7. Yuk…We are having May like weather, as Rolando mentioned..From the looks of it, also, are we having the same risk now for tropical mischief that we would have in May-June, because of the unseasonably warm temperatures?…History, smistory, lol, I have little faith in historical data right now…We broke historical records by having our first ever hurricane in recorded history the first week of July..I’m jaded..I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re having hurricanes in the Gulf, in December..

      • That’s what I’m actually saying, lol…When somebody says history is on our side, I no longer have faith in that..I’m more about what is happening in front of me in the present..

      • It’s the fact that the vast majority of the records we break are heat records nowadays. We very seldom break cold records any more. For Example, we’ve had 1 record low this year. We’ve had 9 record highs and counting. In 2023, we had 0 record lows and 24 record highs. Six of our hottest months on record have occurred in just the past 10 years. The last time we had a record cold month was December 1989. We also had our hottest summer and warmest winter on record in the 2010s. There is an obvious trend towards a warming climate going on.

        This November will likely be another near record breaking warm month after seeing one of the hottest Octobers on record. At this point this may be the hottest November on record, which would be our 7th hottest month In just 10 years.

        • Not to mention we broke the hottest summer on record again last year. So 2 record hot summers in just 12 years out of 135 years of data. Need I say more?

    • Lisa: Look at the tropical storm origins and paths map for November, and then look at what we have now. Climate change is messing everything up.

  8. Love it, grass turning greener now with the rains, more life to the vegetation than in October. Warm smooth air over the skin keeping it moist and healthy.

    Keep the cold away.

    • No, I say bring it..Lows in the 50s, highs in the 70s..So my pansies will survive and thrive, and so I can enjoy my morning walks a lot more…I’m a very active outdoors person who does not like high humidity..

    • Cool/cold weather is like nature’s reset button. Works for us too. Constant heat and humidity wears on people and is not at all refreshing.

  9. I’ve been trying to convince my wife for years to move somewhere cooler, and while hellish summers and floods would have her on the fence, usually oct would arrive and make her forget about the previous 6 months. But with this years fall winter being MIA, and after two separate week long power outages, I finally have the green light.

      • i didn’t know you need to shovel driveways and scraping car windows in San Fran, Oakland, Portland, or Seattle.

          • You do know these cities also have suburbs, right?

            Just like how The Woodlands, Pearland, Sugarland, Katy, Clear Lake, League City, Pasadena, La Porte, Tomball, Humble, Kingwood and Cypress are “Houston”.

      • You do understand that the only choice is not the other extreme? Of course you don’t or you wouldn’t have said that. I’d rather scrape a window or run the defroster for a couple of minutes than to constantly wipe sweat off just from being outside.

      • There are plenty places with cooler weather where it does not snow. And places where it does snow but you don’t have to shovel it. I lived in downtown Boston and guess what? Never had to shovel anything because the city plows it themselves. Also didn’t have to have a car because real public transportation was a real thing there, unlike here.

  10. You said several weeks ago we were done with hurricanes in Texas for the year and I am sticking to that statement if you don’t mind. I trust you. Besides, Jim Cantore has his fans on full blast pushing it away so there’s that.

  11. I have familia members 🇮🇹 who lived without AC back in the ol’ days, worked in the fields bailing hay, and never complained. Made tougher back then

    • you are welcome to go back to those days. they also didn’t have modern medicine back then. you want to go back to those days to make yourself tougher?

        • I agree with Mike. Much of today’s population could not have handled growing up in rural America in the 1930s and 1940s.

          We were poor but it was a so much better world in so many ways.

          And, yes, medical care was nothing like today, but there was no obesity and, generally speaking, people were active and healthy.

          And, there was no social media and no harmful drugs and the cities were safe.

          • And black people drank out of their own water fountains and went to their own schools, and women couldn’t get a bank account without their husbands’ permission. Yeah, those days were great. /s

          • 100% agree with Mike, I am so glad someone finally agrees with me.

            Yes, apart from the race issue, it’s 100% true, @NotGoingBack. Everything Mike said, with an addition: Kids actually had families back then.

          • And by the way, I don’t think it has anything to do with toughness, but rather with putting first things first.

        • Absurdity. Women were way better off back then, to a greater extent than men were, in my opinion. Look at depression rates among women of my generation (gen Z) today. Things are worse for women than for men in today’s world.

    • They must have had something to look forward to at the end of such a hardworking day…Because that’s how we adapt to what is dealt us in life…Rest in the shade..
      A swim at a nearby pond, beach or maybe a pool, or running helter skelter through some sprinklers on the property..Maybe a couple of stiff drinks at the end of the day, lol…

    • Do you have any idea of the mortality rate for children and infants? Or for that matter anyone? Just from looking at death certificates from the 1900’s many infants died from the heat. Those that had money would leave during the summers to ensure survival. No one worked during the hottest times of the day. They stayed inside for their own protection. The good old days were not so good. Farm equipment killed. Communicable diseases wiped out families and left orphans that did not always find homes. And as for mental illness? Do you really think they talked about that at all?

    • Probably died before they reached middle age as well. No doubt they were very happy when John Deer invented his baler. By the way; one bales hay and one bails a crook.

  12. This is absolutely ridiculous weather. We shouldn’t have to worry about hurricanes or humidity this high three weeks out from December. Wow. I usually am thankful for non-roachy weather around now, but no such luck. EW.

  13. Is the jet stream from Asia to Canada that you talked about a couple weeks ago still preventing us from getting an actual cold front? Can we get a weekly update on that please if a serious cold front is still perpetually 10 days out with zero confidence? Are our chances of that cold front in 10 days linked to that jet stream?

  14. How I wish we had a Capital City weather just like Space City!!
    I love the straightforward weather reporting/forecasting! We live just north of Austin. I’m fed up with the hype!
    I’m on your email list and read my email daily.

  15. Looking like some crisp fall weather coming soon to DFW after this front passes – no highs above 75F for the foreseeable future. Been really enjoying the move up here… actually quite similar to Houston but don’t have to worry about hurricanes and have all 4 seasons.

  16. So many complaints here. Whichever AO direction this is, I’ll take it. The jet is directly over us and lots of warm rain. Except for the temperate stuff, the flora is lush. Like Miami without the storms. Thank you weather gods, global warming, all that.

  17. I’m more concerned about the TD headed our way than the cool front. Hopefully it will fizzle out, but the way things are going weather wise in our country, I’m going to worry and fret over this one.

    • LeeAbb: There still appears to be uncertainty about where Rafael (just named) will go. The National Hurricane Center shows it heading generally toward central Louisiana, while other sites and models have it heading toward just south of the Mexico/Texas border and dissipating just before it gets there.

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