In brief: We’re interrupting your Sunday with a short post to note the possibility of severe weather in the Houston metro this afternoon and early evening. Conditions aren’t ideal, but they could support strong thunderstorms.
Hi everyone. I hope you’re enjoying this humid Sunday in our fair city. We’re posting a quick update to note the possibility that some strong thunderstorms may develop this afternoon in association with a weak front approaching the region. Unfortunately we don’t have great data about the state of the atmosphere—a sounding over the city or just to our northwest would go along way—but there are some ingredients available for the development of storms.
The most likely timeframe will be from about noon to 8 pm CT. If the capping inversion in the atmosphere (preventing warm, humid air at the surface from rising) ends up breaking over the city, we could see a fairly wide outbreak of thunderstorms. There will be the usual threats in the form of hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two. I want to emphasize that conditions are not ideal for severe weather, but the potential is lurking in our atmosphere.
The bottom line is that if you’re going to be out and about this afternoon you will want to check the radar and be prepared for inclement weather. The likelihood of storms will diminish this evening, and then should fade entirely tonight in Houston. We’ll be back with a comprehensive update, as usual, on Monday morning.
Thank you for the update — helpful as always!
“Unfortunately we don’t have great data about the state of the atmosphere—a sounding over the city or just to our northwest would go along way” — Is this because of the recent cuts in weather balloon activity?
I was wondering when that question would come up…
To be fair, it’s already come up more than once. Notably, it was addressed in the (very recent) March SCW Q&A if you’re interested in understanding why it’s a fair and relevant question.
Thanks for this alert! As for the data that would be helpful: Did federal cutbacks affect its availability, or is it just a gap in either the grid or the timing of scheduled observations? I ask because a source that I have found reliable has warned that cutbacks at NOAA will affect data collection.
Again, I was wondering when politics would enter…
Were you under the assumption that budget cuts to our federal weather services would have absolutely zero impact on data collection?
Nope, just a gap in coverage. The Houston/Galveston office doesn’t release weather balloons. The nearest sounding sites are Corpus Christi and Lake Charles.
Looks like the cap is firmly in place, at least so far. Radar is clean.
These comments are exactly why I deleted the SCW app weeks ago and no longer use this site. I don’t need political opinions inserted into my weather forecast which is what’s been happening on this site, very sadly. I thought I’d check one last time but I should’ve known the snide political insertions would still be there. The news channels might be slightly hyped but at least their forecasting isn’t political! Peace out, SCW.
It’s a weather blog, not an airport. No need to announce your departure lol
Interesting to delete an App/bookmarked site because of ::checks notes:: the comments.
Not the posts from Eric/Matt, but the comments. SMH
Windy is showing a large section of Texas without radiosonde balloons.
It’s no wonder we’re having problems figuring things out.
In ANY case though, I sure am grateful to SCW for looking out for us.
Looks like the cap held.
Just to be clear, weather balloons aren’t normally launched from the Houston area anyway and that is nothing new. I think Eric was hopefully just being wistful, “Would sure be nice if we had some balloon data, oh how about right here?”
It would be interesting to know the cost of establishing a complete data set 24/7/365, with balloons, drones, whatever.