Surprise! There could be a few unexpected storms on Thursday

In brief: A passing shortwave will bring a decent chance of showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms on Thursday. However we expect dry weather for fireworks on the Fourth of July, and most of the weekend should be rain-free. Temperatures look to remain hot for awhile, as is expected during July.

A shortwave surprise

One thing about meteorology is that it always keeps you on your toes. For several days now we’ve been predicting that high pressure would largely keep rain chances at bay during the second half of this week. But now it turns out that high won’t be quite strong enough to keep an atmospheric disturbance, known as a shortwave trough, from sliding into the region today. It is unlikely to bring widespread showers and thunderstorms, but there should at least be some scattered activity this afternoon, and a few showers on the Fourth of July as well. I still don’t anticipate any impacts on fireworks, however.

HRRR model depiction of radar at 2 pm CT suggests the possibility of some showers and thunderstorms later today. (Weather Bell)

Thursday

The radar is quiet right now, but later this morning we are likely to see some showers develop to the west of the region. These should progress toward Houston during the middle of the day, bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area this afternoon. Overall, your chance of seeing precipitation is probably about one-in-three. Skies, otherwise, will be partly sunny with high temperatures in the mid-90s. Winds will be light, from the south at about 5 mph. Rain chances die off tonight, with muggy conditions and lows in the upper 70s.

Friday

The Fourth of July will bring a mix of sunshine and clouds, with high temperatures in the mid-90s or thereabouts. We will again see a chance of rain, although coverage might be slightly less than Thursday. So we should be somewhere between scattered and isolated showers. I expect these to diminish during the evening hours, so impacts on fireworks should be negligible. Lows Friday night will drop into the upper 70s.

Saturday and Sunday

The first half of the weekend should bring partly sunny skies, with highs in the mid-90s. Rain chances are low to non-existent on Saturday. They look a little bit higher on Sunday, perhaps 30 percent, with the same heat and humidity.

This weekend will be hot, but not excessively so for this time of year. (Weather Bell)

Next week

Another disturbance is likely to traverse the area on Monday, leading to an elevated chance of rain before high pressure returns again. Most of next week will probably see highs in the mid- to upper-90s, with a slight chance of rain along the sea breeze. So, all in all, it should be pretty July-like.

32 thoughts on “Surprise! There could be a few unexpected storms on Thursday”

  2. Can you provide some update on the Saharan dust? The air quality continues to be listed as poor, and I’m wondering when I can get some relief and maybe head back outside. It really flares up the asthma.

  3. Apple weather app has been saying this all week. Idk why I keep checking this site if the weather app appears to be more accurate consistently.

  6. “Surprise! There could be a few unexpected storms on Thursday”
    According to the provided HRRR Model they will be far to the west of any of us, so why do we want to know? How does that benefit or affect us?

    • Did you read Eric’s post or just look at the map picture? Who is “us”? For people to the far west (them?), it matters. But those storms should come east according to Eric, and if they do “SURPRISE”!

    • kenneth: Surprise! Rain is moving through Houston now. My house in Jersey Village has picket up 0.32″ of rain so far.

      • Pouring down in “radar red” @San Felipe and Fountain View! Thunder and lighting too. “Su-prise su-prise, su-prise”!!! Nature loves to surprise.

      • None here on the west side. Are you sure you are not seeing someones sprinklers on?

        • We had rain in Richmond/Katy all afternoon. Started around 2pm and lasted off and on through 7:30pm or so.

  7. it is funny but it’s science. Most every met has missed what Barry, a combo of highs (weak, strong, indifferent) means for Houston weather. Someone posted the other day that Houston was 3/4 of an inch “short” of average for June (which is like 5+ inches). In Timbergrove? 11 inches in June. Ha.

    • Timbergrove seems like a magnet for getting heavy rain and storms. Last year that area got the derecho harder than anywhere else in the city. Not sure what’s up with that

  8. This dust can go away at any time. It’s even causing me problems working out at the gym doing sprint training on a bike.

    Is it just me, or the the dust sometimes have a smell to it? Admittedly, after working 40+ years in various petrochemical plants I shouldn’t have a sense of smell left. However I sometimes get the smell like being in a woodshop after they’ve done a lot of cutting or sanding.

    • Yes it does seem to have a certain smell. I could smell it yesterday for sure. And I definitely understand what you mean about the smells from chemical plants lol. It sounds like you must be in pretty good physical shape for your age.

  9. I loved the “Surprise!” in the title. I was murmuring to myself “let me check the weather because it can’t be the same dang weather every day.” Lo and behold I see a surprise and that there’s a possibility of rain. Love that.

  11. Really coming down now in the Med Center. This is probably because I ran my sprinklers last night.

  12. Well, this is the second rain for us today in Magnolia – around 9am and now 14.24. Right now, the storm is a bit expressive 🙂

    I have “centerpoint report outage” webpage ready 👍

    There’s a potential for rain tomorrow evening … would be good to suppress some of the fireworks out here … stressful enough we have to babysit the horses until 3am (yea, they get calming paste).

    • They’re saying now it should rain tomorrow – that’s good, it’ll make everything damp. Lessen hazards.

      • Yea, and the other side effect is temperature drop. It’s currently (has been since the last storm) 74°F. That’s lower than the low was overnight !!

  13. My body is so confused. It looks so gray and dreary outside. Looks more like winter than summer.

    • Sarah: it seems weird, or maybe it’s just me, but it was only a few days ago that no one predicted what we ended up having today. Not even close.

  14. From the NWS discussion yesterday at midday:

    “A quick summary of the forecast is brought to you by the letter H: hot, hazy, and hardly a chance of rain…at least for the next few days for that last part.”

    Whoops!

    But I’ll always take a missed forecast when it’s on the cooler and rainier side in July…

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