Tallying up Houston’s much needed rain, looking ahead to an uncertain weekend forecast

In brief: I hope you enjoyed the spell of slightly drier air overnight, because we’re already seeing dewpoints start to rise this morning. The front that pushed through on Tuesday will return this evening as a warm front. Another front arrives Friday night, bringing a decent chance of showers heading into the weekend.

Houston rainfall

We’ve made much of the emerging drought across the greater Houston region in recent weeks, with parts of the area reaching ‘severe’ drought levels after a very dry September and October, along with lots of sunshine and abnormally hot days to speed evaporation. So the prospect of rain to end October and start November was a refreshing one, even if it did lead to some minor flooding inconveniences on Houston roadways.

So how did we do? As the rain gauge map from the Harris County Flood Warning System shows, the vast majority of our region picked up between 1.5 and 4 inches of rainfall over the last week, with some locations in southwest Houston even seeing 6 to 8 inches. This was exactly the kind of rainfall the Houston area needed to pick up before the onset of winter to really help out our soils and foliage. We’ll get official information about the drought status on Thursday, but we’ve definitely improved our situation, especially with less rain needed during shorter days with a lower Sun angle.

Wednesday

We’re holding on to some dry air this morning, but dewpoints will begin to rise pretty quickly today. By this afternoon or evening, pretty much everyone is going to feel Houston humid once again. Skies will be sunny today, with a light northerly wind, and high temperatures in the upper 70s to 80 degrees. With the more humid air in place, low temperatures on Wednesday night will only fall to around 70 degrees in Houston.

Thursday and Friday

Rain chances return to the forecast on Wednesday night, and we’ll see something on the order of a 1-in-3 chance of light to moderate showers on both Thursday and Friday. Both days will be mostly cloudy, with humid air, and highs around 80 degrees or a touch warmer. So we’re going back to a pretty warm and humid pattern. Some modest change may arrive on Friday night, in the form of a weak front.

Saturday and Sunday

Our region’s weather for the weekend depends on the impacts of said front, which is likely to limp into the area on its last legs Friday night or Saturday. I expect this front to bring at least some scattered showers with it on Friday night into Saturday morning, and possibly some thunderstorms. Rain chances appear best before sunrise on Saturday, but showers could linger into the daytime hours. Highs on Saturday are likely to reach about 80 degrees, with slightly drier air, and lows Saturday night dropping into the 60s. Sunday again will be in the vicinity of 80 degrees, with a slight chance of showers. Lows on Sunday night will likely drop into the 60s, although it’s difficult to predict how far into the 60s.

Next week

Veterans Day should have fair weather, with sunny skies and highs around 80 degrees. There’s a slight chance of some daytime showers. Tuesday and Wednesday also look warm and fairly humid before the probable arrival of a stronger front on Wednesday or Thursday. The details are still uneven, but the signal for colder and drier air is becoming more convincing.

Tropics

You may have noticed that Hurricane Rafael formed on Tuesday, and should move into the Gulf of Mexico today where it will continue trucking northwest toward the central Gulf. If this were August or September, we’d definitely be on high alert for some tropical activity. But my friends, this is November. And although this has been an extremely warm year for sea surface temperatures, the Gulf is nonetheless going to be pretty hostile to Rafael in terms of dry air and shear as we get toward the weekend.

Put more succinctly, we can expect Rafael to move northwest into the central Gulf of Mexico by Sunday. However, as it does so, it’s probably going to get chopped up by those hostile conditions I mentioned above. My sense is that Rafael eventually succumbs to these conditions and peters out in the Gulf before reaching land, but the bottom line for Texas is that we should have minimal concerns about the system at this time. We’ll of course alert you if that changes.