Heavy rains returned to Houston on Monday evening for the first time since Hurricane Harvey. And these weren’t just light rains (as we’d forecast), but a real deluge for some areas. Sims Bayou along 288, for example, collected nearly three inches of rain between 7pm and 8pm. In some neighborhoods flooded by Harvey, where people had put possessions and drywall and other flood debris on the street, trash piles floated away like flotsam in running water. The rains fell. Lightning crashed all around. Psychologically, it was hard to handle. Could it be happening again?
But this time, they ended. As we heal our homes, Houston, don’t forget to heal your minds as well. Harvey and its like will not return again soon. More pleasant fall weather, with a drier atmosphere, will come within a couple of weeks.
Today
Although moisture levels remain fairly high today, most of the high-resolution forecast modeling indicates that storms won’t be nearly as widespread today, nor as intense. The radar, at 6:30am CT, also shows less coverage offshore than on Monday morning. For this reason I’m anticipating fewer problems this afternoon and evening. Again, as these storms are driven to some extent by the sea breeze and daytime heating, they should ebb again as the Sun goes does. Expect highs near 90 degrees.
Wednesday and Thursday
In the absence of high pressure, a similar pattern will prevail across the Houston metro area, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could be intense, but because there should be no large-scale, organized activity we don’t anticipate flooding problems. Even after Monday’s heaviest rains, area bayous are near, or at normal levels.
Friday through the weekend
Atmospheric conditions favor fewer showers and thunderstorms for most areas this weekend, but given Monday evening’s explosive rains we’ll have to watch this pattern fairly closely. Highs remain near 90 degrees with partly to mostly sunny skies, with lows in the mid-70s for most areas.
Tropics
The primary concern in the Atlantic remains Hurricane Maria, with sustained winds of 160 mph this morning. Maria poses a grave threat to Puerto Rico, which hasn’t been hit by a Category 4 or stronger hurricane since 1932. Conditions should begin to deteriorate on the island today, before the storm makes landfall on Wednesday.
After that, most model guidance shows Maria turning before reaching the Bahamas, allowing the United States mainland to avoid direct effects from the storm. It nonetheless remains worth watching for interests along the US East Coast.
Closer to home, the Gulf of Mexico remains quiet as Texas moves closer to the end of its hurricane season.
Minor correction: Maria will directly impact the United States. Puerto Rico is part of America!
Thanks for the forecast, need it like my morning coffee
He specifically said United States Mainland, while Puerto Rico (along with Guam, Hawaii Alaska etc) are part of the US they are not part of the continental land mass.
Do not forget the USA Virgin Islands too.
I have a never been MAD at rain before, but yesterday I was stinking’ mad at it! Go away rain!
Thanks for your continued efforts, Eric (and Matt). Yesterday’s quick storm dumped about 2″ of rain on us in the Heights too. Way too soon after Harvey. Definitely time to heal mentally. Can’t wait for the end of the season so we can all breathe a sigh of relief (for a while)
Just noticed your hurricane Maria link sends you to HCFC gauge 370.
Hope she’s not barreling down one of our bayous and your keeping it a secret!! 😉
Yikes! 🙂
What makes Texas hurricane season different in terms of time of year?
In simple terms, once we get to late September and beyond, the weather pattern and cool fronts tend to push any systems that may make it to the gulf to our east and away from Texas.
Famous last words. I’ve read – although not in highly scientific terms or understanding as I’m not a scientist – that this year we *should* see a continuation of low wind shear & favorable jet stream conditions for hurricane development over the Caribbean and the Gulf. Perhaps SCWeather can elaborate on that? I too, would like to imagine that we’re “all clear” come the end of this month, but weather has surely surprised us before and will surprise us again in the future.
Just like Hurricane Harvey surprised us. Although we “sorta” dodged a bullet with Harvey… Houston pretty much just had rain from that storm. Imagine the same storm tracking further east towards Matagorda/Freeport with an additional day over those hot waters of the Gulf. Now add: Wind+heavy rain+wide spread power outages/communications failures = catastrophe.
We are very close to an all-clear. Let’s just say that if I lived in Houston right now I would not be worried about the tropics for the rest of 2017.
This is a relief. Let’s hope it holds true. Harvey pretty much devastated us, not sure how much more we can take this season.
I, like many, won’t breathe a sigh of relief until we get our first really solid cold front, and others stat to roll into town more frequently.
I began a daily obsession with Jeff Masters of Wunderground and his insightful blog regarding hurricanes/climate in 2005 (pre-Katrina mind you). He and Mr Henson seem to think the Western Caribbean will be ripe for development of storms, what with the La Nina cycle ramping up in the Eastern Pacific, high sea surface temperatures and moderate wind sheer (ala La Nina – I can’t help but think of Chris Farley!!). I’m curious what your thoughts are regarding that?
Thanks.
Nice call on that “few tenths of an inch” yesterday 🙂 Just kidding, you guys are awesome
It was pretty accurate for League City, at least—we got basically nothing, and my lawn is basically dead at this point 🙁
Setting up a credit freeze yesterday with Experian, (thanks but no thanks to the thuggish executives at Equifax!) , I found myself talking to a rep in Florida. She was OK, but when I mentioned Maria hitting Puerto Rico (PR) head-on but missing FL, she noted she has relatives in the PR mountains. I told her they should find shelter — she was to call them last evening. As bad as Irma was for PR and the nearby islands, Maria looks even worse. If you are so inclined as I am, say a prayer for all the folks in those areas. The rep appreciated my doing so.
At first we felt the rains were too soon and didn’t like them, then we relished in the hard rain as it is helping to cleanse our yards of the flood water residue that sat there for a week. Washed some of the water lines off the outside that we haven’t touched yet and cleansed the grass and flower beds. Downside is that the reservoir flooded Eldridge again and it was closed this afternoon after being open yesterday and this morning.