Houston may be settling into its summer weather doldrums, but let’s face it: In June, the skies over the region were a happenin’ place. As happens this time of the month, Eric and Matt have cracked open their inboxes and answered your queries.
Got a burning question of your own? Smash the Feedback button in the blog’s sidebar, respond here with a comment or talk to us on our socials: X, Facebook, Instagram, Threads, Mastodon, Bluesky and LinkedIn.
Q. So I’m curious which model actually panned out (regarding TS Alberto). Was it the regular models or the AI models? I remember it being mentioned that there were some differences between them a few days ago.
Thanks for the question. We took a look at this in the immediate aftermath of Alberto, and in terms of track the physics-based models significantly outperformed most of the AI-models. Essentially, some of the AI models wanted to bring the tropical system much further north into the Gulf of Mexico (toward Texas) whereas the traditional models kept it bottled up in the Southern Gulf, which is what ultimately happened.
I’ve also been looking at the AI guidance more frequently for non-storm events and so far I’m not convinced it’s any better (or even as good as) the physics-based models. Of course this is just my personal experience. The best way to determine the value of these new models will be using rigorous, comparative studies of what the models predicted across a range of variables against what ultimately happened. Now that the AI forecasts are coming out in real time, those kinds of studies can be done. I look forward to seeing the results in the coming months and we’ll be sure and share any interesting findings here.
–Eric
Q: Is the news media hurricane prediction for 2024 hype or more on the real side? I am debating getting a generator, but don’t want to buy into the hype if that’s what it is.
A: It’s certainly not hype. But you have to look at it logically. The data almost unanimously suggests that this should about as active a hurricane season as we could have. Thus, the seasonal forecasts are all quite bullish on hurricane development.
In fact, one thing we did at our companion site The Eyewall back in early June was to expand on ways that the active hurricane season forecasts could bust. The reality is that it could bust. Absolutely. Would that mean the preseason forecasts were all hype? As a scientist, I will tell you certainly not. As a member of the public, I get why you’d have that opinion though. So we encourage people to look at the decisions they make with regard to seasonal hurricane forecasts with nuance.
Were you probably going to get a generator anyway? We’ve had far more events non-tropics related that have caused extensive power outages in our area in recent years. Just consider the whole picture. And in this case consider a busted forecast a good thing if it happens.
–Matt
Q. Why is Potential Tropical Cyclone One not called “Tropical Depression One”? I thought a storm was called a tropical depression before it became a tropical storm?
It’s all a bit confusing, isn’t it? But the intent here by the National Hurricane Center is good. A “Potential Tropical Cyclone” is sometimes issued before a tropical system becomes a ‘depression’ or a ‘tropical storm.’ This happens when a system could bring tropical storm or hurricane conditions to land within 48 hours.
Essentially, forecasters from the hurricane center do this when they want to highlight the threat of a tropical system to land, but that system has not yet formed. Why do this? Because sometimes a tropical storm does not intensify until very shortly before landfall, at which point formal warnings are often too late to be actionable. The hurricane center started doing this in 2017, and you can find more information here.
–Eric
Q: Curious to know how the NWS determines if a tornado occurred and categorizes it after the event? Is it based on eyewitness accounts, damage, etc?
A: There are a few ways to confirm a tornado has occurred. Some larger tornadoes have “tornadic debris signatures” on radar, where you can see the radar showing you lofted debris from tornado damage. The most obvious and easiest way to suspect a tornado is eyewitness accounts.
But sometimes well-meaning people think something is a tornado when it is not. That’s why the NWS usually sends out a survey team to go investigate damage after a storm if a tornado is suspected. They can combine spotter or eyewitness accounts with radar data to determine exactly where to look for tornado damage. Generally speaking, if the damage is all pointed in one direction, that’s a tell-tale sign of straight line winds, or a microburst/downburst, not a tornado.
But if the damage is more chaotic or pointed down in different directions, that’s a probable sign of a tornado. This page from the NWS in Binghamton, NY shows sort of how they go about this process.
Rating the tornado’s intensity is another matter. There is some subjectivity involved, but in general, the damage indicators as provided in the Enhanced Fujita scale provide a decent categorization for a tornado.
–Matt
Q. You are all hype. I thought your website was dedicated to providing weather insight for Houston without the hype but your Stage 2 flooding article was all hype!! Don’t quit your day job!
A. Let me put your weary and worried mind at ease: we won’t be quitting our day jobs. My day job is writing about space exploration for Ars Technica. Matt is a meteorologist for an energy company in Houston. Would you believe that Space City Weather is hobby for both of us, a second job we do to try and help the community?
I do think it is useful to revisit our thinking about issuing a Stage 2 flood alert on Sunday, June 16. Here’s the post, which we published at 9:53 a.m. Note that this was Father’s Day, and Matt and I spent a couple of hours that morning strategizing, thinking, and writing about the forecast. I mention that just so you understand we’re pretty dedicated to this stuff.
That morning we actually gave some thought to issuing a Stage 3 warning for coastal areas, but I decided it was best to hold back for a time. At the time some of the modeling was rather dire (showing upwards of 20 inches of rain across parts of Houston in some instances). The ‘official’ precipitation forecast from NOAA showed a bullseye of 12 inches of rain just south of Houston, and the flood threat was very real for coastal areas. In any case, we felt it was time to raise the alarm about the potential for significant flooding in the Houston region for the coming week. So we pulled the trigger.
Some uncertainty definitely remained—we caveated our forecast with the following statement, “Our forecast modeling remains a bit split as to whether the heaviest rain will fall near Galveston, or further south closer to the Coastal Bend.” The latter is precisely what happened.
In forecasting, you win some, and you lose some. All we can really do is to try and do our best, and that’s just what we do here.
–Eric
I love these Q&As, keep them coming!
In regards to the question about hurricane predictions being hyped. I can’t remember when a season prediction was less than normal. I honestly believe that forecasters as a default always predict an active hurricane season. And eventually when they are correct we will hear “ we told you so “.
Last year.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2023/04/13/hurricane-forecasters-predict-first-below-average-season-in-almost-a-decade/
It happened last year. But they’ve been right.
“There hasn’t been a below-average season in the Atlantic basin since 2015, when no hurricanes and only two named storms made landfall in the United States.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2023/04/13/hurricane-forecasters-predict-first-below-average-season-in-almost-a-decade/
That makes sense. We had our strongest El Nino on record that year which most likely helped keep the storms at bay that summer.
It happened last year. But they’ve been right by predicting active hurricane seasons.
“There hasn’t been a below-average season in the Atlantic basin since 2015, when no hurricanes and only two named storms made landfall in the United States.”
https://www.forbes dot com/sites/nicholasreimann/2023/04/13/hurricane-forecasters-predict-first-below-average-season-in-almost-a-decade/
Thanks for these Q & A overviews, Matt and Eric! As always, you ALL do a great job with your blog posts, both here on SCW and now on The Eye Wall. Much appreciated! (And, please add to your recommended Tropical Weather expertise recommended list Dr. Levi Cowan at TropicalTidbits.com. He, in my opinion, offers excellent explanations of developing Tropical Weather. Thanks! – Sid Sperry
I love your site and have followed Eric since he wrote a science blog for the Chronicle. I also love the addition of Matt to the team and you guys will always be my ‘go to’ weather dudes. Thank you!!!!
Now for my question. I seem to remember several years ago hearing or reading an opinion that tropical storms in the Gulf essentially take some energy away and make the prospects of a powerful storm less likely, at least for a while. Is there any truth to that, or did I dream up that entire idea?
Ignore the critics, please.
If you had not issued the Flood Stage, or underestimated it, they would be blaming you for that, too.
I do wonder though, if the climate changes are not also creating some new level of predictability chaos.
Keep doin what you do. A lot of us out here appreciate it.
Best. Place. For. Insightful. Houston. Weather. Updates. Period. And thank you for adding this resourceful work to your already full plates. Your posts benefit many….I appreciate you!
As a loyal follower from the beginning when it was a part of the Chronicle (if I’m remembering correctly), I’m eternally grateful for your hobby. Thank you, Eric & Matt, for all you do!
We get hurricane predictions but I never see, after the season is over, whether the predictions were accurate or not. How historically accurate have past predictions been?
I can’t believe that last Q&A! You guys are so careful to always write about potential uncertainties in the forecast and always include caveats and alternative scenarios. Seems to me that some people just look at the pictures and fail to read the more nuanced and informative parts. This blog isn’t a picture book! lol 🙂
I appreciate your forecasting and rely on it. I think it’s detailed, well-written, accurate to the message that needs to be conveyed. I read it every morning with my cup of coffee. So, again, thank you.
If I could add a suggestion. And I realize I’m in the minority here, could you consider adding a “seeing” or “starry skies” forecast for us backyard astronomers? Or just mention it when viewing should be acceptable. I’m also well aware the issues we face viewing under these light-polluted Bortle 9 skies, but having that “heads-up” to possible positive conditions would be much appreciated. As well as prepping to get the scope acclimated for some lunar, planetary and doubles viewing.
Keep up the good work.
-JG
I used to love reading Eric’s posts about notable night sky events during his Chronicle days. I understand that’s not the focus of this blog, but I do miss those.
Agree. Those Chronicle articles were wonderful. Short and fun. Unique. The weather blog has gotten lengthy. Some folks parse every sentence but as Melissa says I’m pretty sure many just scan and go – like a picture book. Based on the questions that come up in the gallery here that’s well said.
To be clear, I was just asking for a weather-related, positive nighttime viewing/seeing conditions forecast when applicable.
Good luck on this. I have been doing astronomy here for 30 years and still haven’t been able to make reliable predictions on transparency and seeing. To close to the Gulf I suppose. Conditions can change in a heartbeat. One just has to go out and hope for the best. However, during the summer when high pressure dominates, one can pretty much expect clear skies at night. Just have to deal with the humidity and mosquitos!
There’s no reason why we can’t do more of these here. Thanks for the suggestion. I’m still very much interested in the night sky.
Thanks Eric!
What influences daily minimum temperature in the Houston area, and why does 2022 to 2024 May to September daily minimum temperatures feel hotter than normal?
The daily minimum temperature anomaly for 2022-2023 in our region is about +1.5 deg F compared to 1991 to 2020 baseline.
The year 2021 was relatively normal for May-September. There was no minimum temperature anomaly that year. I remember running in the park during that summer and it actually felt great outside (even during the summer!)
So what causes the warm night time temperatures the past two years? Is it related to the warm ocean? Cloud cover at night? Differences in night time wind patterns? Warmer day time temperatures? Simple elevated temperatures due to climate change?
I feel like I saw an answer to this question somewhere and it was due to all the concrete heating up the air (which of course, there’s only mor and more of that every year). But I’m not 100% certain of that answer.
The urban heat island effect (which you’re describing) definitely is a factor, however it doesn’t account for the more rural locations that are also seeing warmer nights, albeit maybe not as pronounced. In those cases, it’s more likely that the warmer than normal Gulf is the culprit.
All of this plus the Gulf is hot as Hades recently
That last question was ridiculous. Space City Weather is THE ONLY forecast I trust. I don’t watch mainstream weather anymore. Talk about HYPE!
Back before Alberto when it was just ridiculously humid, you mentioned a phenomena where satellite images showed fog along some of the Houston expressways surfing morning rush hour(s), but the possible causes you mentioned didn’t resonate with me. Did you consider whether water vapor produced by traffic could have been a significant factor? The hydro part of hydrocarbon fuels comes out the tailpipe as water vapor, which should increase the humidity around the roads…
Keep up the great work!
Thank you! Y’all do a great job covering a big area with a lot of factors influencing tge westher!
The gripe about a potentially dire forecast that thankfully did not come to pass, is misplaced. Years ago in a “Earthquake Prediction” class, the first discussion (understandably) was the difference between a forecast and a prediction, in both precision and accuracy. SCW is very good at making distinctions between the objective observations and the subjective interpretations, which is why I read it. WeatherUnderground for the 10-day forecast, Windy.com for the radar and other graphics, and SCW for what it means in prose. I’m continually amazed at both the accuracy and the precision. Thanks and drink your water.
Eric and Matt, keep up the good work. Only God can predict the weather perfectly, that said, you guys are mostly spot on. Most people really appreciate your FREE forecasting; I know I do. Thanks again for all that you do.
Mary Lee
I’d rather there be a flood alert and the flood not happen than the other way around. Same with the hurricane predictions. If the forecasting ever gets good enough to predict exactly where all the heavy rain is going to fall, then I might get annoyed at “false alarms”. I’ve lived in the Houston area for almost 4 decades, and I’ve avoided a lot of trouble by minding the weather, taking the basic precautions, and understanding that plans might have to change. Having a good radar ap on the phone makes things much easier.
You tell’em Eric. Our family goes straight to Space City Weather for ALL of our weather related news. I don’t understand why anyone would complain. We know what dedication to our vocation means and I certainly appreciate ya’lls, both Matt AND Eric’s
Just keep doing what you do, many have come to rely on it.
With regard to the comment of “don’t quit your day jobs“ I wanted to let you know how much I appreciate your time and work on your project here. I am a relatively new subscriber and I find your insight more valuable than any other sources available. thank you and keep up the good work. Gary Hough.
Thank you Gary!
You are definitely not all hype! I am a weather “hobbyist” and you are the best of them all. By the way, I don’t see anything that makes it mandatory for “hype monger” to read your analyses! The first place I go every morning is to your articles!!
Going to add to the numerous comments praising your outstanding work on this blog (which is FREE, mind you). Also going to point out that sometimes the reverse happens- anyone remember TS Imelda that took everyone by surprise? And everyone was stranded at work? I’d rather you guys take an ounce of precaution and ensure your readers are weather aware when needed. If the dire predictions fizzle out, great! It’s a win for everyone. Keep up the great work, gentlemen. Loved the Q&A today!
I think there is a misunderstanding of the word hype. Hype is when everything is a potential catastrophe – usually shouted on TV and expressed in the direst language in print. Uncertainty and being incorrect some of the time is science.
Exactly!
I was not aware that writing Space City Weather is a hobby for the two of you. Thank you both for giving your time and expertise. The blog is an outstanding resource that I consult regularly.
During threatening weather it becomes a full-time job for me. I’m fortunate in that my main employer is completely understanding and flexible. It also means working nights and weekends some time, which is fine. Because I’d miss this if I didn’t do nit.
Given TS Alberto tracked further south, what drove the severe thunderstorms that caused a ground stop at both our airports on 6/19? The “air traffic jam” looked like rush hour in Houston. We were inbound from CA, had to divert to DFW for more fuel, and ultimately arrived 7 hours late.
Thanks.
That was tropical banding due to Alberto; it’s just that the majority of it went south. Had it not, things would have been even worse here.
Thank you both, Eric & Matt, you’re doing a fantastic job!!
Thank you for your expertise and dedication! I’d much rather be warned about a potential emergency that doesn’t happen than not hear in advance about one that does!
I follow you because I trust what you say. I’ve never seen hype in your column. I also see the two of you telling people that you miscalculated. I appreciate the fact that you were brave enough to post that derogatory comment. That person who griped about your flood alert evidently has never had their home flooded by a minor rainstorm, much less by a tropical disturbance and that know nothing about meteorology. If they had an inkling of what you do, they would know that it’s not an exact science and that you do the best you can with the information you have and that information keeps changing.
Regarding the hurricane forecast for this year, I understand it could play out as they describe, but it would be helpful to see, let’s say the last 25 years of the CSU forecast versus actual. That is the only fair way to judge any of the forecast models.
Regarding the “You are all hype.” comment above. I am glad you issued the Stage 2 flood alert. I was heading out of town last week, and it allowed me to tell my wife that there might be some heavy rains, and for us to make contingency plans ahead of time, just in case. I monitored your emails and website, and was able to let the know that we were going to be fine. Keep up the good work!
Super glad we were of help, Curt.
Love this transparency and dedication to the uncertainty in science, thanks for your work!!
I really appreciate the thought, care, research, and humor that goes into SCW. You guys are truly amazing to do this as a labor of love. Keep up the good work
Thanks for what you do! Whenever I meet someone new to the area, I tell them to use your site to get the best forecast of what the weather will do…and I’m so much more of a weather nerd than I used to be, partly because of your posts.
And I love that your Q&A is honest and includes a question from the haters 🙂 We can’t all be perfect all of the time!
Maybe the hurricane season numbers are not hype. But what about the things I hear on multiple sites that say that this year’s pattern will bring more storms to the US compared to last year? Is that hype? So far the pattern seems pretty similar to last year, with a stronger than average high pressure over the southern US while the Bermuda high is weaker than average, directing the storms / tropical waves over the open waters of the Atlantic or south to Mexico. Do you expect that pattern to reverse?
Thanks for the Q and A’s. It’s always an interesting read. I’ve been a follower since before the “I live in Katy, should i evacuate now?” comments. Ignore the critics and believe me, you have a lot of faithful followers who rely/enjoy your Forecasts.
Add me to the chorus of appreciation for Eric and Matt – who are doing this blog as their hobby but with professional standards.
Like others have said, I don’t bother with the TV newscasts any longer since I don’t need the aggravation of their hype.
For those with unreasonable expectations from this blog, they are welcome to migrate to another website.
You need to think about maintaining your credibility.
National Weather Service issues a “flood watch” when they think flooding may occur but when they aren’t sure. They understand that they need to maintain credibility. If they issued flood “warnings” that did not occur much of the time, then they would lose credibility. Thankfully, the National Weather Service is one of the few government agencies that still has the trust of most Americans.
I suggest that you refrain from issuing flood alerts until you have very high certainty that you will be correct. Like the NWS, you need some other type of longer term advisory that flooding may occur, like their flood watch. It is very hard in our divided society to maintain credibility among most of the people.
Solid credibility as far as I’m concerned.
I’m just one person, but I suspect I’m not alone.
As a daily reader of the posts and the comments, I really think the problem is often people’s reading comprehension skills and expectations. Many of the forecasts including the flood scale (which I believe is more akin to a watch than a warning) are given with a statement that something could or even is likely to happen, but people assume that to mean something will absolutely definitely happen and then get upset when it doesn’t.
Unless I’m blind I don’t see the “feedback” button in the sidebar to smash to submit a question…
Your work is very much appreciated! My family and I rely on it with total confidence.
Reading these comments makes me realize that reading comprehension is definitely lacking with most people. The meaning of ALERT is to make someone AWARE of something!! Hence, a FLOOD ALERT is a SUGGESTION to be AWARE of a POSSIBLE FLOOD!! Please continue to ALERT us so that most of us won’t venture out and possibly put ourselves in danger. Thanks for caring and sharing.
NWS, you guys, Windy.com, and Weather Brains, with an occasional check on Cameron Nixon is my weather fix. You do a fine job.
Richard