There is a pretty good chance of rain this Friday—no, really

In recent weeks the Houston area has had some decent chances for much needed rainfall after a very dry late summer and early fall. How dry? Houston’s Hobby Airport, for example, is now running a rainfall deficit this year of more than 25 inches. Those hoped-for rain storms have been hit or miss this month, however, with much of the area only picking up a smattering of rainfall.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but looking ahead to Friday the Houston region has another good chance of rainfall. As I’ll explain below I’m cautiously optimistic this one will deliver more widely. But hey, if you’re skeptical, I get it. Recent rain storms have definitely underperformed.

Wednesday

Today will bring no rainfall, of course, with high pressure overhead. Rather we can expect extraordinary fall weather, with sunny skies, dry air, and highs in the mid-70s. Winds will be light, out of the northeast. As these winds shift to come from the east overnight, we can expect overnight temperatures to be a little warmer on Thursday morning, likely in the low-50s in Houston.

Thursday

As the onshore flow deepens on Thursday we’ll start to see humidity return, as well as some clouds later in the day and evening. Highs will be near 80 degrees, and with the warmer flow overnight temperatures are unlikely to fall below the mid-60s. This moistening of the atmosphere will set up healthy rain chances on Friday, ahead of a cold front.

Friday

The key ingredients will be in place for widespread showers, and possibly some heavier thunderstorms, on Friday: a lot of moisture in the atmosphere, a low-pressure system associated with an advancing front, and daytime heating. The extent to which all these line up will determine the amount of rainfall we see, but I think the majority of the area can probably expect about 1 inch, with the potential for more in areas where strong thunderstorms develop. Some street flooding is possible.

This is not a guarantee of rainfall, and with the underperformance of precipitation in recent months I’m hesitant to go further. But suffice it to say this is our best chance for a good soaking in quite a while. Skies will otherwise be cloudy, with highs in the mid-70s. If you’re lucky enough to be going to Game 1 of the World Series, which starts at 7:03 pm CT on Friday evening, you can expect a chance of lingering showers, but the heavier rains will probably be gone. I’ll try to pin down the timing of storms in tomorrow’s post.

Saturday and Sunday

The weekend will be cooler in the wake of the front. While the chance of showers should end by Saturday morning, some clouds could linger into the daytime. Look for highs near 70 degrees, with lows Saturday night in the mid-50s in Houston, with cooler conditions further inland. Sunday will be mostly sunny and warmer, with highs in the low- to mid-70s.

Next week

Halloween’s weather on Monday will be far from frightful, with sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s. Expect very light winds and mild temperatures on Monday evening, perhaps near 70 degrees or just below.

The rest of next week looks warmer, with highs near or just above 80 degrees, and lows moving into the upper 60s. The next front may move in before next weekend, or not.